Depends heavily on the return of cash flow into pillar stocks

Pinetree Securities experts said that the stock market's performance this week depends largely on the return of cash flow into pillar stocks and their ability to spread to the entire market.

Stock Market Perspective 3-7/3: Depends heavily on the return of cash flow into pillar stocks

Pinetree Securities experts said that the stock market's performance this week depends largely on the return of cash flow into pillar stocks and their ability to spread to the entire market.

Global stocks are in a correction phase, mainly in Asia. With a sharp decline last week, Japanese and Korean stocks have lost their MA200 technical level, while the Chinese market's upward trend has also been blocked. Most notably, Southeast Asian stocks, with Thailand and the Philippines, have entered a bear market, meaning they have fallen more than 20% since their recent peak.

In commodities, gold snapped its eight-week winning streak after falling more than 3% last week. Its role as a safe-haven asset was quickly taken over by the US dollar and US Treasury bonds. Oil also hit a two-month low, marking its first monthly decline since November 2024.

US President Donald Trump continued to announce new tariff ideas that made global investors uneasy last week. Geopolitical concerns were further heightened when the negotiations between the US and Ukraine failed right at the White House after a heated dialogue between the two presidents. On March 4, 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect after a 1-month delay. In addition, Mr. Trump also announced an additional 10% tariff on China (March 4), after imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods since early February 2025, thus the tax rate is 20% for China from March 4.

The domestic market bucked the global stock market trend with its sixth consecutive week of gains, the longest streak since mid-August 2023, and remained above the 1,300-point threshold for all sessions last week. The index closed the week at 1,305.36 points, up +8.61 points, or +0.66% compared to the previous week.

The increase last week was mainly concentrated in the Midcap group (+1.36%), while Smallcap increased +1.05% and VN30 increased slightly +0.2%. Some prominent stock groups such as: Construction and construction materials, mostly steel stocks (+5.01%), securities (3.2%), real estate (+2.58%)... On the opposite side, logistics (-2.69%), aviation (-2.48%), insurance (-2.34%)...

The peak momentum last week caused cash flow to explode rapidly with the volume of matched shares increasing by more than 13%, while recording improved liquidity for the 6th consecutive week. The average matched transaction value per session increased by 19% compared to the previous week and reached more than 17,300 billion VND, the highest level since July 2024.

Specifically, the total market liquidity last week reached VND21,137 billion, up 13.2% compared to the previous week, of which the matched liquidity also increased by 16.3% to VND19,448 billion. Liquidity in February increased to VND17,861 billion, up nearly 40% compared to January but still 23.3% lower than the same period. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, the total market liquidity reached VND15,343 billion, down 27.2% compared to the average level in 2024.

However, most of the increase was formed in the session on February 24, while the VN-Index entered a state of re-accumulation after breaking through the psychological resistance of 1,300 points. In particular, cash flow continued to withdraw from groups with high trading performance in the previous period such as banking and technology (FPT) and gradually shifted to groups of stocks that have not yet entered the price increase phase with prospects of better profit performance such as steel, construction, real estate and securities.

Among them, the most prominent groups of stocks attracting cash flow were steel stocks after the Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed a temporary anti-dumping tax of up to 27.83% on hot-rolled coil (HRC) imported from China and securities stocks thanks to the expectation of market upgrade by FTSE Russell as well as the KRX system.

Source: Mirae Asset

The optimism from domestic investors continued to strengthen the market's upward momentum and at the same time balanced the selling pressure from foreign investors. Foreign investors net sold more than VND2,758 billion, bringing the net selling in February to VND9,850 billion and the cumulative net selling since the beginning of the year, foreign investors net sold VND16,606 billion. ETF capital withdrawals from Diamond and Fubon funds were -4.63 million USD and -4.5 million USD respectively last week.

The group of stocks that were net sold last week focused on: FPT (-470 billion VND), STB (-416 billion VND), HPG (-369 billion VND), while net bought back MWG (+547 billion VND), VNM (+170 billion VND)... In the past month, stocks that were net sold by foreign investors included: FPT (-1,334 billion VND), VNM (-1,119 billion VND), MSN (-979 billion VND), VCB (-714 billion VND)...

Source: MBS

Regarding valuation, according to MBS Securities experts, the current P/E ratio (TTM - sliding 4 most recent quarters) of the market has increased from 13.3 times in early February to 14.18 times, but is still 16.5% lower than the 5-year average. This is the second time the P/E ratio has been lower than the average of 1 standard deviation since late October and early November 2024, when the VN-Index was at 1,250 points .

Mirae Asset Securities experts said that the trade war has not shown any signs of cooling down with the US's decision to continue imposing an additional 10% import tax on China while the new tax on Mexico and Canada is expected to take effect from March 4 after the end of the previous 30-day suspension. The US's role on the fronts is gradually becoming unpredictable with the ceasefire agreement in Russia - Ukraine likely to last longer than expected when the press conference between President Zelensky and Mr. Trump last weekend did not go smoothly. Although this is considered one of the negative factors in geopolitics, the impact on the stock market is still unclear with the US growth outlook still the most important factor at the moment; especially when consumer activity is gradually slowing down in this country.

For the Vietnamese market, March will be a preliminary period when global cash flow may become cautious when the US tariff decisions will take effect along with the corresponding tax rates that will be announced in early April. These are risks that the market needs to carefully monitor. In Mirae Asset's view, cash flow in Vietnam will tend to continue to shift to groups with prospects of bringing higher trading performance with the shake-out from profit-taking moves in the banking group that may cause the market to adjust to new equilibrium price zones (1,280 - 1,290 points) before once again testing the resistance zone of 1,300 - 1,330 points.

According to experts from Pinetree Securities, the time the market surpassed the 1,300-point mark in the last week of February 2025 marked the first time the market has maintained this psychological threshold for 5 consecutive sessions, in nearly 3 years. The VN-Index has experienced a volatile week, but investor sentiment is gradually becoming more positive despite some disturbing news such as the consecutive blows from President Donald Trump's conservative tariff policy or the slow disbursement of public investment in the first 2 months of the year compared to the plan and slower credit growth across the system.

Pinetree Securities experts believe that this week will be a more difficult trading week, as the VN-Index is still struggling around the important psychological mark of 1,300 points. The clear breakthrough is difficult to confirm without the motivation from the banking stocks . Especially when the Prime Minister's Directive requires strict handling of credit institutions that compete unfairly on interest rates and directs banks to "be willing to share part of their profits to reduce lending rates to support people and businesses", implying that the net interest margin (NIM) of the banking system may be affected to some extent.

Accordingly, the development next week depends largely on the return of cash flow into pillar stocks and the ability to spread to the entire market. In a slight correction scenario, VN-Index may return to the 1,285 - 1,290 point range to gain momentum, then the next target will be the 1,330 point range, and in the case of stronger fluctuations, the market may return to 1,255 - 1,260 points.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-3-73-phu-thuoc-nhieu-vao-su-tro-lai-cua-dong-tien-vao-nhom-co-phieu-tru-d250433.html