After hitting a record high in February, global coffee prices are expected to grow positively thanks to stable supplies and sustainable consumption trends.
The volatile coffee market
According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Composite Coffee Price Index (I-CIP) in February 2025 increased by 14.3% compared to January, reaching an average of 3.54 USD/lb. This is the highest price ever recorded, surpassing the previous record of 3.05 USD/lb in March 1977.
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| Coffee price index chart from March 2023 to February 2025. Photo: ICO |
According to the ICO, the reason for this price increase comes from the pressure from the supply side. Specifically, the volume of Robusta coffee traded on the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) in London decreased by 4.9% in February, to 0.72 million bags, while Arabica coffee decreased more sharply, to 0.84 million bags, down 7.5% compared to January.
This has caused the world coffee price traded on the ICE London exchange to increase by 8.2%, reaching an average of 2.53 USD/pound in February 2025. Coffee prices on the ICE exchange in New York also increased by 18% in February, reaching an average of 3.88 USD/pound.
However, the ICO recorded a price drop in mid-February and predicted that coffee prices could fall in the coming period. According to the ICO, the main reason was that the transaction costs for Arabica coffee had increased on the ICE New York exchange, leading some investors to sell off to reduce risk.
In addition, consumer survey results in the US and Europe in February 2025 showed a decline in consumer confidence in the coffee market, contributing to negative sentiment among traders.
In addition, the purchasing power of traders has also been reduced due to low liquidity globally. This has led to the bankruptcy of two major Brazilian coffee exporters, Atlântica Exportação e Importação and Cafebras Comércio de Cafés, causing negative impacts on the market.
However, the ICO’s outlook for coffee supply in 2025 is quite positive. According to the ICO’s preliminary estimate, Vietnam’s coffee harvest is expected to increase by 10%, reaching 1.65-1.75 million tons (equivalent to 28-29 million 60-kg bags). This is a welcome signal after a year of declining coffee output in our country due to the impact of the weather.
Additionally, favorable weather forecasts from the US National Weather Service have also helped ease concerns about coffee supply shortages. Accordingly, the La Niña phenomenon will replace El Niño this year, bringing more stable weather conditions to coffee growing areas.
Optimistic outlook for the future
According to Vanúsia Nogueira, Executive Director of the ICO, the outlook for the global coffee industry in 2025 is extremely optimistic. According to her, the world will witness a stable and improved coffee harvest compared to the previous year, thanks to the decline of extreme climate events.
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| ICO is optimistic about the coffee market outlook in 2025, thanks to more stable coffee production compared to last year. Illustration photo: moit.gov.vn |
On the consumption side, Ms. Nogueira highlighted the increase in demand from emerging markets such as the Middle East and Asia, in the context of the coffee market in Western countries cooling down somewhat. In particular, Gen Z is becoming a potential consumer group, with a growing interest in coffee.
“Gen Z not only loves coffee, but they also demand consistency and transparency in product quality. They want commitments from producers to be fully implemented. This requires the supply side to work harder to meet the expectations of this customer group,” said Ms. Nogueira.
In the production sector, Ms. Nogueira noted that regenerative and circular agricultural methods in coffee production are increasingly being adopted. Initiatives such as water reuse, renewable energy use and carbon credits are becoming increasingly mainstream in the global coffee industry, thanks to their feasibility and low investment costs.
The ICO CEO also emphasized that it is regenerative and circular agriculture methods that are winning over Gen Z consumers. By adopting these methods, farmers not only have the opportunity to diversify their income, but also contribute to building a more competitive and sustainable coffee industry.
| “2025 will be a year of positive change for the global coffee industry, driven by strong supply and innovation in sustainable production,” said ICO CEO Vanúsia Nogueira. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/nhieu-trien-vong-tich-cuc-cho-nganh-ca-phe-the-gioi-2025-378162.html
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