Morning of September 18, Commenting on the gold market in August 2024, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that August was a remarkable month for the gold market when the gold price increased by 3.6% to 2,513 USD/ounce, due to the strong growth performance of gold in July. On August 20, the gold price reached an all-time high, reaching 2,557 USD/ounce before decreasing slightly at the end of the month.
 |
| In August, gold price reached 2,513 USD/ounce - Photo: VNA |
According to the World Gold Council's Gold Yield Allocation Model (GRAM), the main factors driving the rise in gold prices are the weakening of the US dollar and the slide in 10-year bond yields as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) shows the possibility of more interest rate cuts.
However, gold's strong investment performance in July negatively impacted returns, as high returns typically lead to lower gains in subsequent periods.
India's recent reduction in gold import duty has increased the country's demand for gold, as seen in the sharp increase in demand from jewelry retailers and consumers.
Meanwhile, global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen inflows for four consecutive months, mainly from Western fund investments.
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that due to conflicting economic data, it is difficult to interpret the current macroeconomic situation. The upcoming US presidential election adds to the uncertainty, boosting investor activity in the options markets.
Investors buying and selling gold options - a less volatile investment segment - has hit a multi-year high, suggesting hedging or speculation by investors linked to the rate-cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
Globally, economic indicators remain positive, with GDP growth at 2.5% and the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remaining upbeat. However, manufacturing, particularly in Europe and China, remains sluggish. In the US, the economic outlook is mixed. While the composite PMI has shown modest growth and consumer sentiment has improved, rising unemployment and rising delinquencies point to potential economic stress.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent speech at the Jackson Hole economic conference suggested that more rate cuts are likely. Despite the Fed’s positive economic outlook, short-term interest rate markets have remained largely unchanged, pricing in nearly 100 basis points of cuts by year-end. The Fed’s approach likely balances the need to avoid a recession with the risk of resurgent inflation.
As investors seek to cope with this uncertain economic climate, gold is increasingly seen as an immediate hedge against risk while also benefiting from the potential for lower interest rates, said Shaokai Fan, Regional Director for Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council.
The upcoming Fed meeting in September will play a key role in shaping market sentiment and expectations. Regardless of the election outcome, favorable conditions for gold are expected to continue.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/nguyen-nhan-nao-thuc-day-gia-vang-tang-vot-346619.html
Comment (0)