Pangasius exports to the US are on the rise...
The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has conducted an administrative investigation to review the anti-dumping duty order on frozen pangasius fillets from Vietnam for the review period from August 1, 2022 to July 31, 2023 (POR20).
DOC determined that in this POR20, many pangasius fillet exporters from Vietnam did not dump their products into the US market. Therefore, they will not be subject to any anti-dumping duties.
There are 8 pangasius exporting companies that are eligible for separate tax rates or are not subject to anti-dumping tax, including: Vinh Hoan Corporation (Vinh Hoan Corp), Bien Dong Seafood Company Limited; Can Tho Seafood Import-Export Joint Stock Company (CASEAMEX), Dai Thanh Seafood Company Limited, Dong A Seafood Company Limited (DONG A SEAFOOD); Hung Ca 6 Company; Nam Viet Corporation (NAVICO) and NTSF Seafood Joint Stock Company (NTSF SEAFOODS).
Fortunately, this result comes at a time when pangasius exports to the US are on a strong growth trajectory. Vietnam's pangasius exports in August 2024 reached 191 million USD, up 12% over the same period last year, and the cumulative 8 months reached nearly 1.3 billion USD, up 9% over the same period.
Pangasius exports to the US alone in August 2024 reached more than 35 million USD, up 40% over the same period, the second highest in the year after April 2024 with more than 37 million USD; and the cumulative 8 months reached 226 million USD, up 23% over the same period last year.
The recovery of the US market is considered a lever for the growth of pangasius exports, especially in the context of less optimistic imports from China.
With the US confirming that there is no dumping behavior, Vinh Hoan (HoSE: VHC) and Nam Viet (HoSE: ANV) will not be subject to any anti-dumping tax.
In August 2024, Vinh Hoan's revenue reached 1,172 billion VND, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. Of which, Vinh Hoan's export turnover to the US increased by 51% over the same period last year, reaching 424 billion VND, the market with the largest revenue of Vinh Hoan in August 2024.
Accumulated in the first 8 months of 2024, Vinh Hoan earned 8,355 billion VND, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year.
In 2024, Vinh Hoan plans to achieve consolidated revenue with a base level of VND 10,700 billion (up 6.6% compared to 2023), and a high level of VND 11,500 billion (up 14%). Consolidated net profit with a base plan of VND 800 billion (down 12.9% compared to 2023), and a high level of VND 1,000 billion (up 8.8%).
Regarding Nam Viet's financial situation, in the second quarter of 2024, Nam Viet recorded net revenue of VND 1,193 billion, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. After deducting expenses, Nam Viet reported a profit of VND 17.5 billion, a significant improvement compared to the loss of VND 51 billion in the same period last year.
In the first 6 months of 2024, Nam Viet's net revenue reached VND 2,209 billion, a slight decrease compared to the first half of 2023. As a result, this seafood enterprise reported a profit of VND 34 billion, down 17% over the same period last year.
In 2024, Nam Viet Seafood aims to achieve revenue of VND 5,000 billion and after-tax profit of VND 306 billion. At the end of the first two quarters of the year, Nam Viet Seafood has completed 44% of the revenue plan and 11% of the profit target.
Bright prospects of Vinh Hoan, Nam Viet
According to data from market research firm Agromonitor, the average selling price of pangasius fillets exported to the US market reached 3.2 USD/kg in July-August 2024, an increase of 7% over the same period last year.
Industry data shows that although the current average selling price is still far from the 2022 peak of USD 5.0/kg, Vinh Hoan Seafood's average monthly sales volume to the US market is now only 10% lower than the 2022 peak.
As analyzed, Vinh Hoan Seafood is still tending to maintain low selling prices to boost output. Vinh Hoan's gross profit margin is expected to gradually improve in the coming months thanks to the recovery in selling prices, low prices of animal feed and raw fish.
SSI Research recently forecasted that the net revenue and profit after tax of Vinh Hoan Seafood's parent company this year will increase by 13% and 29% respectively compared to 2023.
Meanwhile, Nam Viet Seafood still targets an 8-fold increase in net profit this year, expecting the price of pangasius to increase. In the plan submitted to the General Meeting of Shareholders, Nam Viet sets a revenue target of 5,000 billion VND this year, an increase of 13% compared to 2023, and a profit after tax of 306 billion VND, 8 times higher (an increase of 685% compared to 2023).
Many financial institutions assess that Nam Viet Seafood's business prospects this year will be more positive as pangasius export prices are expected to recover amid increasing demand and decreasing supply.
So far, many financial institutions still assess that Nam Viet Seafood's business prospects this year will be more positive as pangasius export prices are expected to recover amid increased demand from the US and many other markets and reduced supply.
BIDV Securities Company believes that in 2024, demand for pangasius will gradually recover as inflation cools down and people's spending increases again, especially in the last months of the year. Nam Viet's pangasius consumption will be better. Pangasius export prices to the US and China are expected to increase thanks to recovering demand, while supply is shrinking.
According to a newly published report by Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), this organization also expects ANV's net revenue in 2024 to reach VND4,999 billion, an increase of 12%; after-tax profit to reach VND220 billion, 5.2 times higher than in 2023.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) assessed that the export situation of pangasius will improve from the fourth quarter of 2024, thereby helping to increase the export price of pangasius by at least 10% compared to the current price.
For Nam Viet Seafood, the company's business will clearly benefit from the US market as it continues to enjoy a 0% anti-dumping tax rate and its selling price in the US may recover. Not to mention, Nam Viet Seafood is also expanding its customer base in China, aiming to increase sales in this market.
Nam Viet Aquaculture currently has 250 hectares of traditional farming areas and 600 hectares of high-tech farming areas.
Nam Viet Seafood's Board of Directors said that the company is currently the second largest pangasius producer and exporter in the world with a closed production chain, including 250 hectares of traditional farming areas, providing up to 120,000 tons of raw fish/year, and 600 hectares of high-tech farming areas invested since 2018, providing up to 250,000 tons of raw fish/year.
Nam Viet Aquaculture currently owns 20,000 pairs of parent fish capable of producing 14 billion fingerlings. With a feed factory with a designed capacity of 800,000 tons/year, Nam Viet Aquaculture is capable of supplying 100% of feed for the company's 150-hectare fingerling farming area.
Nam Viet is also operating 04 seafood processing factories with a total processing capacity of up to 1,200 tons of raw fish/day and fully achieving ISO, Global GAP, HACCP, IFS, BRC, GMP and HALAL quality certifications.
It is expected that pangasius exports to the US will continue to recover in the last months of this year, contributing to an increase in orders. Consumers in the US are increasing their demand for white fish products, especially pangasius from Vietnam.
The decreasing supplies of whitefish to the US amid the scarcity of other whitefish products such as tilapia is also a positive signal for Vietnam's pangasius exports to the US market.
According to regulations, after 120 days of announcing the preliminary results, DOC will announce the final tax results of POR20. However, in many cases, the final results have changed compared to the preliminary assessment.
However, the preliminary results of POR20 can be considered the best news for the Vietnamese pangasius industry after 20 years of being entangled in an anti-dumping lawsuit in the US.
Source: https://danviet.vn/loat-ong-lon-vinh-hoan-nam-viet-don-song-lon-khi-my-khong-ap-thue-chong-ban-pha-gia-va-tang-mua-ca-tra-20240920131452151.htm
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