Raising the growth target to 8% or more in 2025 while public debt increases to the warning threshold poses many challenges in terms of capital efficiency, inflation control, macroeconomic stability and debt repayment capacity.
Raising the growth target to 8% or more in 2025 while public debt increases to the warning threshold poses many challenges in terms of capital efficiency, inflation control, macroeconomic stability and debt repayment capacity.
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| In 2025, the processing and manufacturing industry is expected to grow by 9.7% or more. Photo: Duc Thanh |
Economic regions with higher growth in 2024 from 0.7-1.3% or more
In order to contribute to creating a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth rates for a long enough period (starting from 2026), the Government has submitted a supplementary project on socio-economic development in 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more to the National Assembly.
Here, the Government submitted to the National Assembly for consideration and comments on adjusting a number of key targets, including the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) reaching 8% or more (the target assigned by the National Assembly is about 6.5-7%), the average growth rate of consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5-5% (the target assigned by the National Assembly is about 4.5%).
The growth scenario has also been renewed to achieve the new target. The growth of the industrial and construction sector is about 9.5% or more (of which, the processing and manufacturing industry increases by 9.7% or more); services increase by 8.1% or more; agriculture, forestry and fishery increase by 3.9% or more).
According to this scenario, economic sectors will accelerate, achieving growth rates 0.7-1.3% higher than in 2024; in which, industry - construction, especially processing - manufacturing industry, will continue to be the driving force for economic growth.
Still according to the new scenario, GDP scale in 2025 will reach over 500 billion USD, GDP per capita over 5,000 USD.
Regarding growth drivers (investment, consumption and export), the Government calculates that total social investment capital is about 174 billion USD or more, approximately 33.5% of GDP (higher than 3 billion USD). Of which, public investment is about 36 billion USD (equivalent to 875,000 billion VND, about 84,300 billion VND higher than the assigned plan for 2025 of 790,700 billion VND). Private investment is about 96 billion USD, foreign direct investment (FDI) is about 28 billion USD, other investment is about 14 billion USD. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) in 2025 will increase by 12% or more. Total import-export turnover in 2025 will increase by 12% or more; trade surplus is about 30 billion USD. Average CPI growth rate is 4.5-5%.
The conditions for implementing the growth scenario of 8% or more, according to the Government, are first of all new thinking, new ways of doing things, breakthroughs in institutions, solutions, decentralization, and radical decentralization. Completing the work of streamlining the organizational apparatus to be lean, effective, and efficient, so as not to affect the people and the production and business activities of enterprises in the short term.
Next, it is necessary to promote the leading role of growth of dynamic regions, economic corridors and growth poles. In particular, the GRDP growth of localities in 2025 must be at least 8-10%; Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, potential localities, large cities are locomotives, growth poles need to strive for a growth rate higher than the national average. There are appropriate incentive mechanisms for localities with high growth, with regulation to the Central Government.
To realize the new growth target, the Government has set out the conditions for continuing to renew traditional growth drivers. Specifically, strengthening market confidence, strongly promoting private investment, processing and manufacturing industries. Attracting large-scale, high-tech investment projects with great spillover effects; clearing and effectively using resources; increasing development investment expenditure; promptly reviewing, removing and implementing backlogged and stalled projects.
In addition, it is necessary to quickly restore domestic consumption, tourism and services. Maintain stability and develop harmonious and sustainable trade relations, especially with the US, China and major partners. Strongly develop science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and high-quality human resources to become increasingly important driving forces and factors promoting growth.
The Government also considers the necessary case of allowing the adjustment of the state budget deficit to about 4-4.5% of GDP to mobilize resources for development investment, public debt, government debt, and foreign debt may reach or exceed the warning threshold (about 5% of GDP).
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Need for a tight public financial management strategy
Agreeing with the Government's target and growth scenario of 8% or more, delegate Trinh Xuan An (Dong Nai), Standing Member of the National Assembly's Defense and Security Committee, said that the above target requires close coordination between state policies, business efforts and the economy's ability to adapt to global challenges.
“The target of socio-economic growth of 8% or more in 2025 is a big challenge, especially if it is accompanied by an increase in public debt and government debt to or exceeding the warning threshold,” Mr. An told reporters of Dau Tu Newspaper.
To achieve the above goal while still ensuring national financial stability, according to delegate An, it is necessary to thoroughly consider a number of important issues, including the efficiency of using borrowed capital. Specifically, it is necessary to ensure that borrowed capital is used effectively, focusing on projects that can promote rapid growth such as infrastructure, technological innovation, digital transformation and human resource development.
Along with that, it is necessary to minimize waste or loss in public investment, improve the quality and rate of public investment right from the first months of the year.
Public debt control and debt repayment capacity, according to the Standing Member of the National Defense and Security Committee, also need to be concerned, because although increased public debt can create room for investment and growth, it is necessary to consider debt repayment capacity in the medium and long term. Improving the efficiency of budget collection, expanding the tax base to ensure sustainable debt repayment sources, carefully assessing the debt structure, prioritizing loans with low interest rates, long repayment periods and limiting short-term loans with high interest rates, according to Mr. An, also need to be focused on.
The Dong Nai delegate also mentioned a number of solutions to control inflation and stabilize the macro economy. Mr. An analyzed that increasing public investment and borrowing could increase inflationary pressure. Therefore, it is necessary to have appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to control inflation and avoid overheating. Stabilize the exchange rate to avoid negative impacts on foreign debt. Along with that, research to increase credit growth to higher than 16%, along with measures to prevent bad debt increase, ensure macro, and put credit into appropriate areas.
To bring GDP to 8% or more in 2025, Mr. An emphasized, it is necessary to urgently implement specific mechanisms and policies; mechanisms and policies issued by new laws issued by the National Assembly (land, housing, real estate business) to turn these mechanisms and policies into resources.
“The target of achieving growth of 8% or more in 2025 while public debt rises to the warning threshold poses many challenges in terms of capital efficiency, inflation control, macroeconomic stability and debt repayment capacity. Therefore, it is necessary to have a tight public finance management strategy, strengthen institutional reform and promote investment resources other than public debt to reduce pressure on the state budget,” Mr. An stated his opinion.
From the perspective of institutional improvement, delegate Nguyen Manh Hung, Standing Member of the National Assembly's Economic Committee, acknowledged that the laws on investment and finance that were urgently amended at the 8th National Assembly Session have contributed to unlocking resources and shortening the time for projects, which will promote growth in 2025 and the following years.
“The Law on Digital Technology Industry, the Law on Management and Investment of State Capital in Enterprises… are being amended, and if they go in the right direction, they will also create new momentum for growth,” Mr. Hung shared with reporters from Dau Tu Newspaper.
Speaking at the opening of the 42nd session of the National Assembly Standing Committee on the morning of February 5, National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man said that the National Assembly Standing Committee is scheduled to meet again on the afternoon of February 10 to give opinions on the investment policy for the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway project, and possibly the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Lang Son railway, if prepared in time.
In addition, some other urgent contents to be submitted to the National Assembly at the ninth extraordinary session, if the dossier is completed in time for the examination, will also be commented on. Specifically, the plan to supplement the charter capital for the 2024-2026 period of the parent company of Vietnam Expressway Corporation and the Project to supplement the socio-economic development in 2025 with the target of reaching 8% or more.
According to the program, this morning (February 7), the National Assembly Economic Committee held a plenary session to review the Government's submission on this project.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/lam-gi-de-gdp-nam-2025-dat-8-tro-len-d244628.html
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