Israel has “crossed the red line”
Israel said late last week that its military was on high alert to prevent a response that could be broader and more complex than Iran's attack on Israel in April.
In the April attack, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, but only after telegraphing the mission ahead of time and giving Israel and the US time to prepare for evacuation. Ultimately, most of the projectiles were shot down before reaching Israel.
Iranians follow a truck carrying the coffin of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an assassination believed to have been carried out by Israel. Photo: CNN
This time, things are in a completely different state. Israel is in the dark about how and when Iran will respond after the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran.
Although Tel Aviv has not yet claimed responsibility for Hanieyh's death, Iranian media outlets have claimed that Israel carried out the attack. And, to complicate matters, Israel also targeted a leader of Iran's ally Hezbollah.
The escalation began on July 27, when a rocket attack from Lebanon killed 12 young men on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Tel Aviv blamed Hezbollah, which denied any involvement. But Israel then carried out a strike in Beirut that killed senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr on July 30.
Both Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge. With anger rising from Tehran and Beirut, US and Arab diplomats are scrambling to prevent a spiral of violence that could turn the Middle East into a fiery furnace.
But an Iranian diplomat said efforts by many countries to persuade Tehran not to escalate had been and would be fruitless due to recent Israeli attacks.
"It is of no use. Israel has crossed all red lines," the Iranian diplomat said. "Our response will be swift and strong."
Israel and the US prepare for the worst
Despite their tough talk, neither Iran nor Hezbollah has said when or how they will respond to Israel. This lack of information has pushed the Middle East to one of its most dangerous moments since the Gaza war began last October.
“Less telegraphing means there is a chance of misjudging the next step on the escalation ladder,” said Andrew Tabler, a former director for the Middle East at the US National Security Council. The result could be a spiral that is difficult to control, rather than the limited tit-for-tat that was evident in April.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. Photo: Defensa Aerea & Naval
The Biden administration’s priority is to help Israel prepare for any attack from Iran or Hezbollah. The US already has significant firepower in the region, including an aircraft carrier strike group and several guided-missile destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, as well as additional destroyers and the USS Wasp Amphibious Strike Group in the eastern Mediterranean, along with missile defense systems deployed throughout the Middle East.
But the Pentagon is also deploying additional forces. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, which is currently in the Gulf of Oman, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said over the weekend.
Secretary Austin also ordered additional missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers for both European Command and US Central Command, as well as the deployment of additional land-based missile defense units to the region.
Finally, Mr. Austin deployed an additional squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East to bolster U.S. air defenses. During the April strike, U.S. fighter jets helped shoot down several Iranian missiles headed toward Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also warned the country that “difficult days are ahead of us.” Several foreign airlines have canceled flights to Israel, similar to how they canceled flights to and from Israel before Iran’s attack in April.
Israel has also prepared for residents in the north of the country - near the border with Lebanon - with underground hospitals, ambulances and fire stations to be ready to respond to fierce rocket attacks from Hezbollah. Israeli officials calculate that the Lebanese Islamist forces can fire about 4,000 rockets and missiles into Israeli territory every day.
Dangerous fog conditions
Saudi officials say Iran and Hezbollah believe the response, whatever form it takes, needs to be stronger than the April attack. Some fear the attack could involve not only Iran and Hezbollah but also other regional militias such as the Houthis in Yemen and Islamist militants in Iraq.
Several Arab negotiators have been sending warnings to Iran on behalf of Israel and the United States that Israel is ready for war if Hezbollah and Iran react too aggressively, such as attacking Tel Aviv or deeper into Israeli territory.
Israel's famous "Iron Dome" air defense system is intercepting rockets fired from Hezbollah into the country's territory. Photo: Sky News
Iranian officials say they understand the risk of escalation, but Supreme Leader Khamenei is under internal pressure from hardliners to respond. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has similarly warned Arab mediators that “we will respond on the battlefield.”
Helima Croft, a geopolitical analyst at Canadian bank RBC and a former US security official, said the combination of opposing sides this time raises the stakes compared to the Iran-Israel confrontation in April. “The events of the past few days could create a dangerous fog of war dynamic where red lines are unclear and the risk of serious miscalculation is high,” she said.
Israeli police and rescue workers simulate how to respond to a massive missile attack from Iran and Hezbollah. Photo: Zuma Press
Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in a limited war since fighting in Gaza erupted after October 7 last year. But the rocket attack on a soccer stadium in the Golan Heights on July 27 and subsequent Israeli airstrikes have raised the risk of a full-scale war.
As diplomats scramble to contain the fallout from the Golan Heights incident and prevent an Israeli retaliatory strike, news of the killing of Hamas political leader Haniyeh has added a new, uncertain variable.
The negotiations are now complicated by Hezbollah's sense that it was misled by diplomats that Israel's response would be limited and meaningless. In fact, Tel Aviv has launched an attack on two fronts: targeting a senior Hamas official and killing a Hezbollah commander in Beirut.
When Tehran prepared to launch a massive missile and drone attack in April in retaliation for what it suspected was an Israeli assassination of an Iranian general, it gave such advance notice that radio and television stations in Israel had to play a countdown before people could return home or take shelter.
“At that time, Iran wanted everyone to know they were going to attack,” said a US official in the Middle East. “But this time, they didn’t.”
Quang Anh
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/israel-prepares-bi-cho-man-tra-dua-tiem-tang-cua-iran-va-hezbollah-nhu-the-nao-post306320.html
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