Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on September 23 that the current escalation in Lebanon was necessary “to protect our people from Hezbollah.” “We must remove those weapons to pave the way for the northern Israeli communities to return home safely,” he said.
Nearly a year ago, some 60,000 Israelis were evacuated when Hezbollah militia in Lebanon began shelling the border area in northern Israel.
Hezbollah, considered a terrorist organization by some countries, has argued that its shelling is in support of Hamas in its conflict with Israel in Gaza.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, described the current situation as "almost a full-scale war".
Experts agree that the arsenal Iran has provided to Hezbollah will be enough to last for months to come. Photo: AP
However, according to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the UK-based Chatham House think tank, the current escalation and military activity mainly serves as "a legitimate or pretext for Israel to seek to return its displaced citizens to the north".
In her view, there are three different goals driving Israel's current attacks on Lebanon.
“First, Israel is trying to eliminate the link between the Gaza front and Hezbollah on the border,” she said.
“Israel cannot reach a ceasefire in Gaza and cannot reach a peace agreement with Hezbollah because of the Gaza issue,” Vakil said.
Meanwhile, the Axis of Resistance, which includes countries such as Iran and various militias such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis, has focused on unifying its forces and pressuring Israel since October 7 last year.
“Secondly, of course, Israel faces a constant security threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon,” she said.
In 2006, a month-long war between Hezbollah and Israel ended with the adoption of United Nations Resolution 1701, whose conditions included an immediate ceasefire, the deployment of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers to southern Lebanon, the withdrawal of Israeli and Hezbollah troops from that area, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, however, did not retreat to Lebanon’s Litani River, some 40 kilometers north of the border, nor did the Shiite militias give up their weapons. In the years since, with Iranian support, Hezbollah’s military equipment and trained fighters have multiplied.
This also raises concerns that Hezbollah militants could kidnap Israeli citizens on their territory in the future. "Israel is (once again) trying to force Hezbollah to accept UN Security Council Resolution 1701," Vakil said.
“Thirdly, with this activity in Lebanon, the conflict in Gaza is being overshadowed,” Vakil said. Although fighting continues in Gaza after nearly a year and more than 90 hostages are still being held by Hamas, international attention has shifted to the escalation of tensions in Lebanon.
“Israel has no strategy for withdrawing from Gaza and has not articulated a plan for the future, and certainly not talking about the Israeli-Palestinian process,” Vakil said.
In her view, the war in Lebanon "is a distraction from (Israel's) lack of strategy in Gaza".
Meanwhile, the Israeli people are increasingly impatient, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire agreement and ensure the release of the hostages.
“From Israel’s perspective, the domestic political pressure is huge and is increasing every week,” said Lorenzo Trombetta, a Beirut-based Middle East analyst and adviser to UN agencies.
He said reaching consensus has become an important step for the Israeli government. One way to achieve this is to ensure security for northern Israel.
“However, it is difficult to say whether Israel can achieve this. Who knows if and when an Israeli ground operation will begin? And how will Iran react if Hezbollah is on the brink of total defeat by Israel?” Trombetta asked.
Hoai Phuong (according to DW)
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/israel-dang-co-gang-dat-muc-dich-gi-khi-tan-cong-hezbollah-post313840.html
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