Soybean prices fall for third consecutive session

Closing yesterday's trading session, soybean prices fell more than 0.5%, to their lowest level since mid-August.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), red dominated the world raw material market in yesterday's trading session (December 17). Notably, in the agricultural product market, 5 out of 7 commodities decreased in price, with soybeans falling for the third consecutive session. Meanwhile, on the metal price list, except for platinum, which increased slightly, all other commodities' prices weakened. Closing, the MXV-Index fell slightly by 0.89% to 2,201 points.

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MXV-Index

Soybean prices fall for third consecutive session

Soybean futures closed down more than 0.5% on Thursday, hitting their lowest level since mid-August. The declines came three sessions in a row, weighed down by positive supply prospects from South America. Improved exports from Brazil also weighed on the market.

Agricultural product price list

The forecast shows that the weather in South America will remain favorable for crop growth, especially in Brazil. However, in the short term, some areas such as the west and south of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, parts of south and east central Argentina and Uruguay may experience drought, affecting crop growth. However, the temperatures in these areas are currently quite cool, and rain is forecast to appear in the coming time, helping to improve the drought situation.

Following weather developments in South America, the market is still expecting record supplies from Brazil and Argentina this year, putting pressure on soybean prices. In addition, according to shipping company Cargonave, based on ship schedules, Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to reach 1.62 million tons, down more than 2 million tons compared to the same period last year but an improvement compared to the 1.57 million tons reported by the National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) last week.

Brazil will export about 97.4 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024, down from a record 101 million tonnes in 2023, according to Cargonave. Improved shipments from Brazil will add competitive pressure on US supplies, keeping prices under pressure.

In the domestic market, on December 17, the offer price of South American soybean meal to Vietnamese ports decreased slightly. At Vung Tau port, the offer price of soybean meal for delivery in January 2025 was VND 10,450/kg, while the offer price for delivery in February 2025 fluctuated around VND 10,400 - 10,450/kg. At Cai Lan port, the offer price was about VND 100 - 150/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Selling pressure dominates the metal market

According to MXV, at the end of yesterday's trading session, increased selling pressure caused red to almost cover the metal price board. For precious metals, silver prices decreased by 0.44% to 30.92 USD/ounce. In contrast, platinum prices increased by 0.18% to 943.5 USD/ounce, which was also the only item that increased in price in the metal group in yesterday's trading session.

Metal price list

Precious metal prices are mixed amid mixed fundamentals. On the one hand, commodity prices benefit from rising geopolitical uncertainty, especially in the Middle East. On the other hand, concerns that the US Federal Reserve will delay cutting interest rates next year continue to weigh on precious metal prices, which are sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Statistics yesterday, the country's retail sales increased 0.7% in November compared to the previous month, 0.1 percentage points higher than forecast and the highest level in the past 4 months. Compared to the same period last year, retail sales increased 3.8% in November, marking the largest increase since March this year. This positive retail sales data follows a series of recent data showing that the US economy is still maintaining a stable growth rate, while inflation has shown signs of increasing again. This has further increased concerns that the Fed's interest rate cutting process will slow down next year. The CME FedWatch interest rate tracking tool shows that the possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut this week is 95%, but the possibility of a cut in January 2025 is only about 10%.

In base metals, iron ore fell 0.5% to $104.54 a tonne, weighed down by weak consumption, especially in China. Official data from the country’s General Statistics Office showed that steel mills cut output in November due to tighter profit margins and seasonal weakness in downstream demand, further dampening the outlook for iron ore, a key steelmaking raw material.

Specifically, the country's crude steel output reached 78.4 million tons in November, equivalent to a decrease of 4.3% compared to the previous month. In addition, industry experts said that steel consumption in the country has started to decline since mid-November, especially in the northern region, where cold weather disrupted construction activities. In December, analysts forecast that steel output here will continue to decline as mills enter the annual maintenance period.

Prices of some other goods