Coffee price forecast for July 26, 2024: Unstoppable slide?

Coffee price forecast for July 26, 2024, in the domestic market, is sliding down without brakes. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are approaching a historical high thanks to the sharp increase in world coffee prices, creating opportunities for farmers and export businesses.

The market is currently affected by a series of news, the devaluation of the Brazilian currency, increased inventories on the floor, heavy rain in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, and a smooth harvest in Brazil have pushed coffee prices down sharply.

Good news on the crop and weather front in many places is helping to lift sentiment. In Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, there have been reports of increased rainfall in the Central Highlands after lower-than-average humidity in the first half of the year. This seasonal rainfall is expected to continue into October, ahead of the new crop harvest which typically begins around October and November.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, the harvest is at its peak, progressing faster than the average of many years, and about 80% of the area has been harvested. Due to the increase in the supply of Arabica coffee from Brazil, the amount of stock on the New York floor has also increased by nearly 500,000 tons.

In the domestic market, today's coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 25, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices dropped sharply by 1,500 VND/kg compared to yesterday, ranging from 126,000-126,700 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 126,600 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 126,700 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 126,500 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 126,400 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 126,500 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 126,700 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 126,000 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak province, the price dropped sharply by 1,500 VND/kg; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at about 126,500 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 126,400 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Updated world coffee prices at 20:45 on July 25, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,327 USD/ton, down 154 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,176 USD/ton, down 151 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 4,006 USD/ton, down 136 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,866 USD/ton, down 120 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on July 25, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 275.30 - 286.60 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 286.60 cents/lb; down 2.10 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 279.60 cents/lb, down 2.65 cents/lb; the March 2025 delivery period is 275.10 cents/lb, down 3.40 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 275.30 cents/lb, down 8.60 cents/lb.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on July 25, 2024 decreased slightly. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 286.60 USD/ton, down 0.73%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 279.60 USD/ton (down 0.94%); the delivery period for March 2025 is 275.10 USD/ton (down 1.22%) and the delivery period for May 2025 is 275.30 USD/ton, down 3.03%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

In the first half of 2024, Vietnam exported nearly 894,000 tons of green coffee, with an estimated value of about 3.19 billion USD. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, compared to the same period last year, the export volume decreased by 11.4% but the value increased significantly by 33.2%.

In June 2024, Vietnam exported 70.2 thousand tons of coffee, worth 322.41 million USD, down 11.5% in volume and 5.0% in value compared to May 2024, down 50.4% in volume and 15.1% in value compared to June 2023. In the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 893.82 thousand tons of coffee, worth nearly 3.2 billion USD, down 11.4% in volume but up 33.2% in value compared to the same period last year.

The average export price of Vietnamese coffee in June reached 4,489 USD/ton. The average export price in the first 6 months of this year reached 3,570 USD/ton.

Coffee exports are forecast to gradually decrease in the months of the third quarter as supplies gradually run out. It will not be until October, when the 2024/2025 coffee harvest begins, that coffee supplies will increase again, according to information from the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade.

According to industry insiders, the increase in coffee prices has helped businesses and manufacturers improve product quality, invest in processing technology, and diversify products to increase added value. Many companies have focused on developing deeply processed coffee products such as roasted beans, flavored coffee, and filter coffee bags to increase export value.

Coffee price list today 7/25/2024

Market	Average price (VND/kg)	Change (VND/kg)
Dak Lak	126.50	-1,500
Lam Dong	126,000	-1,500
Gia Lai	126,500	-1,500
Kon Tum	126,500	-1,500
Dak Nong	126,700	-1,500

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2672024-truot-doc-khong-branh-334806.html