Guessing the intention of his successor, President Biden makes another move to "kill two birds with one stone"

Long-range US missiles could help Ukraine target many important Russian targets. (Source: The Guardian)

US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use US-made long-range missiles (ATACMS) to attack inside Russia. The question is: What is so powerful about ATACMS that it took Ukraine so long to “break through the barrier”, and how can the presence of ATACMS change the situation of the conflict?

Officials in Washington told reporters that ATACMS was used in the Kursk region, but it is likely that Mr. Biden also agreed to let Ukraine deploy this weapon in other areas before Mr. Donald Trump took office.

How powerful is ATACMS?

The missile system is called the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS. It was developed during the Cold War to destroy Soviet targets, and Kiev has used the weapon against targets in occupied areas of Ukraine.

Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, the missile can strike targets up to 190 miles (300km) away. The ballistic missile flies much higher in the atmosphere than most current missiles and can evade air defenses as it hits the ground at tremendous speed.

ATACMS are considered long-range missiles, although they do not have the range of cruise missiles or intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Why did Biden change his stance?

Kiev has been lobbying Washington for a green light to use ATACMS against targets in Russia, but the US has yet to agree. However, President Joe Biden is now under more pressure. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to seek a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine, so the West is concerned that Moscow will make significant advances on the battlefield.

President Joe Biden has previously refused to allow Ukraine to attack inside Russia with ATACMS because of concerns that it would escalate the conflict. “We are trying to avoid World War III,” President Joe Biden has said.

But Biden’s latest move is being justified as a response to the presence of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces. Last month, Pyongyang sent some 10,000 troops to Russia to join the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There are concerns that the numbers are still growing.

US President Joe Biden hugs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as he visits the Wall of Remembrance for Ukrainian soldiers killed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict on February 20, 2023. (Source: Reuters)

Increasing Ukraine's power and influence before negotiations

Ukraine can now hit targets inside Kursk with missiles. ATACMS can target Russian weapons and ammunition depots, supply lines and military bases. With ATACMS, Ukrainian troops on the front lines will be greatly supported.

Ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January, the Biden administration’s move could be a way to bolster Ukraine’s military might before it is forced into peace talks. It could also have a psychological impact, boosting morale within Ukraine ahead of a difficult period.

Moscow is expected to launch a major offensive to retake Kursk soon, especially with the support of North Korean forces.

However, ATACMS is not considered a “magic bullet”. Ukraine’s big problem now is that it desperately needs troops, and Kiev is struggling to mobilize more soldiers to join the conflict with Russia.

What about Storm Shadow and other weapons?

President Joe Biden has gradually allowed Kiev to use more advanced and longer-range weapons. Early in the conflict, Biden signed off on Kiev’s use of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars), which can hit targets up to 50 miles (80km) away.

Over the past two months, there has been speculation that Ukraine may have been given permission to use Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, which are comparable in capability to ATACMS, against Russian forces inside Russia.

The Franco-British long-range missiles rely on US guidance systems, so Washington needs to agree on how to use them. It is possible that Mr Biden’s decision on ATACMS will encourage European allies to give Kiev more freedom over how to deploy the Storm Shadow (known as Scalp in France).

These missiles are powerful enough to penetrate bunkers and destroy airfields and can also target precisely.

Will there be escalation?

Newsweek quoted several commentators assessing President Joe Biden's decision. Richard K. Betts, an international relations and US foreign policy scholar, said that at this point, the risk of Russia escalating militarily in response to the US providing ATACMS missiles to Ukraine is low because Moscow can wait a few more months until President-elect Trump takes office and reverses the previous administration's policy towards Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the possibility of Ukraine using US weapons to strike deep into Russian territory could escalate the conflict with Moscow, according to Dani Belo, director of security and international relations at Global Policy Horizons. However, Mr. Trump's election may reduce the escalation.

The administration of President-elect Donald Trump could cut off military aid to Ukraine and put political pressure on Kiev to end the conflict. The expert pointed out that, from Russia's perspective, there is currently no incentive to escalate.

Moscow believes that the administration of the US President-elect will try to end the war quickly, so the Kremlin will likely adopt a “wait and see” approach until the new administration enters the White House without a significant escalation.

This means that any escalation is likely to be contained.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/xung-dot-nga-ukraine-doan-y-do-nguoi-ke-nhiem-tong-thong-biden-di-them-nuoc-co-mot-mui-ten-trung-hai-dich-294273.html