The "green light" has been turned on, will Ukraine soon have the "treasure" weapon it has been waiting for so long?

Baoquocte.vn. A squadron of F-16s may soon be deployed in the skies of Ukraine.

Lý do phương Tây không sớm bàn giao F-16 cho Ukraine

F-16 jets are the type of weapon that Ukraine urgently needs to implement strategies to deal with Russia. (Source: National Interest)

It's just a matter of time.

After months of active lobbying by Ukraine, the US on May 19 gave the green light for Ukrainian pilots to use fourth-generation fighter jets, raising hopes

But don’t expect to see F-16s in Ukrainian skies any time soon. The allies need more time. For now, some of the leading candidates for the US-developed fighter jets—including the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark—have pledged only to help train Ukrainian pilots, with no further promises.

“For now, let’s make sure we get the most out of the training,” Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra told reporters in Brussels on May 22. “What the future holds remains to be seen.”

Some countries like Belgium have even outright stated that they have no spare F-16s to provide to Ukraine.

However, this scenario has been repeated many times as Western allies have gradually upgraded the weapons they have transferred to Ukraine.

At first there is hesitation, but then one power - usually the United States - makes the first move, followed by a coalition of European nations that almost simultaneously follow America's example.

“This is a sign of how the US has supported Ukraine at each stage,” said Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Right now, no country is willing to send Ukraine its first jets. That could easily change over time. Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, said that “the F-16s would really make a difference.”

Where are the jets now?

The delay in deciding whether to deliver the jets to Ukraine involves both political and technical considerations.

Very few countries have surplus F-16s, and modern machines require significant training and logistics.

The US must also authorize other countries to re-export the aircraft. “The Netherlands is considered the first candidate to provide this fighter,” said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Dutch Ministry of Defense said the country currently has 24 operational F-16s that are “operationally deployable” and “will continue to be used until mid-2024. After that, they will be ready for another destination.” In addition, the Netherlands also has 18 F-16s that are “no longer in service” and “could also be provided for another destination.”

The spokesman noted that 12 of the 18 F-16s were originally scheduled to be transferred to a private company, but this was delayed.

As for the US, it can be predicted that the “father” of the F-16 will still maintain its huge F-16 fleet. However, when asked if the US is likely to provide these aircraft to Ukraine, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall replied: “I don’t know. I mean, I think there are some possibilities.”

Britain, meanwhile, has been a vocal supporter of a Western “jet alliance.” But it has no F-16s of its own to “donate” to Ukraine.

Several other countries have also signaled that they are only open to pilot training.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said last week that his country would not deliver its most advanced jets, which currently have a fleet of 48 F-16s.

America helps but cannot "in a day or two"

Washington has indicated that while it is currently supporting Ukraine's access to F-16s, the goal of the decision is to help Kiev in the long term — and will not have an immediate impact on the battlefield.

“It will take several months for Ukraine to receive the F-16 fighter jets and there are many issues that need to be resolved. It will enhance Ukraine’s combat capability, but it will not be a game changer,” US Air Force Secretary Kendall said on May 22.

The allies are now moving forward with plans to train Ukrainian pilots.

A spokesman for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (a country that does not have F-16s) said on May 22 that Berlin and Washington were “coordinating closely” on the issue, but stressed that the training program would “take months or even years, depending on the experience of the pilots.”

The spokesman also said Spangdahlem and Ramstein air bases in Germany could be possible locations for training. The spokesman declined to comment on what specific support Berlin might provide.

Ukraine and the commitment

Although there were earlier concerns that the West's provision of advanced fighter jets to Ukraine could escalate the conflict, officials appeared to have dismissed those concerns.

According to a European diplomat, Ukraine could use the F-16s in a variety of ways, such as monitoring and protecting its airspace, while pledging not to conduct any bombing campaigns over Russian territory.

Over the weekend, US President Joe Biden said he had received “firm assurances” from his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that the jets would not be used over Russian territory.

However, he added that “they can use this aircraft anywhere in Ukraine where there are Russian occupying forces.”

Russian state news agency TASS quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as warning that Western countries would take “huge risks” if they delivered F-16s to Ukraine. It is a message Moscow has delivered with each new stage of Western assistance.

According to the European diplomat, the US could seriously consider the idea of handing over F-16s to Ukraine if Kiev fails to achieve significant results in the upcoming offensive or if the West finds itself unable to provide Ukraine with other essential needs and decides to compensate with jets.

Asked about the possibility of Ukraine receiving F-16s in the fall, a senior Central European defense official was optimistic: “I think it’s possible.” Similarly, a senior diplomat from Eastern Europe was adamant: “Why not?”

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