The 'silent' war between the US and China

China and the US are sinking deeper into a dangerous, non-violent confrontation: a war over strategic minerals and technology, with the potential to cause billions of dollars in losses and reverse the course of global development.

In this "silent" war, the US holds an advantage in chip production, but China controls the materials needed to manufacture chips. - Photo: REUTERS

While the US possesses the cutting-edge semiconductor chips necessary for all technological devices, China controls almost all of the essential mineral resources needed to produce these chips.

China dominates the mineral sector.

The silent war between the two superpowers began in 2019, when President Donald Trump imposed export restrictions targeting Huawei, China's leading technology company. This not only sparked a series of tit-for-tat measures between Washington and Beijing but also exposed the deep dependence of American industry on mineral supplies from China.

However, unlike the short-term reaction from the US, China had been preparing for this scenario for a long time. For decades, Beijing has not only quietly built a system to control the global supply chain of strategic minerals but has also strengthened its production capacity to dominate the market.

China currently mines 70% of the world's rare earth elements, processes 87% of the mined ore, and refines 91% of the processed rare earth elements into final products. These figures not only demonstrate China's overwhelming advantage but also reflect the world's dependence on the country in the field of technology.

Not stopping at its national borders, China has invested in mineral-rich countries such as Indonesia, Mali, Bolivia, and Zimbabwe. These countries, despite occasional political instability, provide China with control over the supply of rare earth elements, cobalt, nickel, and lithium. This has helped Beijing create a "mineral empire" with global influence.

Meanwhile, the US and the West are falling behind in this race. Strict environmental regulations and banks' reluctance to finance risky projects have brought mining projects in the US to a near standstill. A prime example is the production of antimony—a crucial mineral—in the US, which has been completely halted since 1999.

Beijing is ready, Washington is lagging behind.

Under President Joe Biden, US-China tensions have not only failed to decrease but have continued to escalate. (Month)

In October 2022, Washington imposed a ban on the export of advanced semiconductor chips to prevent Beijing from developing artificial intelligence. This was a drastic step to protect America's technological advantage, but it also escalated tensions to a new level.

In response, in July 2023, Beijing announced restrictions on the export of gallium and germanium – two key minerals in chip manufacturing. Within months, rare earth trade between the two countries plummeted, almost ceasing entirely.

Not stopping there, in September 2024, China further imposed restrictions on antimony exports. This order not only caused antimony trading to drop by 97% but also drove up the price of the mineral by 200%. The situation culminated on December 3, 2024, when Beijing announced a complete ban on the export of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States.

This marks the first time China has openly targeted the US in a specific move, signifying a new turning point in the strategic confrontation.

Observers believe these moves are not only retaliatory but also aimed at consolidating Beijing's position in the global geopolitical arena.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China is in a "wartime state" as it controls the supply of germanium and gallium – crucial elements for its defense industry. These two minerals are considered potential replacements for silicon in modern weapons systems due to their superior properties.

Conversely, the US maintains a complacent attitude typical of peacetime. The US defense industry currently lacks the capacity to accelerate production to meet urgent battlefield demands.

Increasingly stringent sanctions from Beijing will only widen this strategic gap, leaving the U.S. at greater risk.

The challenges Washington faces lie not only in supply shortages but also in the lack of long-term policies to address this crisis. While China continues to expand its influence through international exploration projects, the U.S. struggles to build strategic alliances to counter it.

Who will lead the future?

The mineral war is not just a story between the US and China, but also reflects an important reality: control over natural resources is becoming a strategic weapon in the 21st century.

Beijing's development of a robust extraction and supply chain system is not merely an economic choice but a long-planned geopolitical strategy.

A future where China dominates the mineral market as "OPEC as a member" is a scenario that the US and the West cannot allow to happen. This is not just an economic issue, but a matter of survival for the global strategic balance.

As the world transitions into the era of green technology and artificial intelligence, the mineral war between the US and China is not just a contest for resources, but a race to determine who will lead the future.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/cuoc-chien-tham-lang-giua-my-va-trung-quoc-20250106064149708.htm