As talks about the signing of a peace deal in Ukraine dominate global headlines, speculation is growing about the possibility of resuming Russian gas supplies through currently inactive pipelines.
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| The Nord Stream gas pipeline system, which runs between Russia and Germany through the exclusive economic zones of Finland, Sweden and Denmark, consists of two pairs of pipelines: Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. (Source: Adobe Stock) |
There is debate about whether they are needed at all. What is the status of the pipelines now and what will happen next if Russia and Ukraine reach a deal to end the conflict that has lasted for more than 3 years (from February 2022)?
Before 2022, there will be four main pipelines transporting Russian gas to Europe, including: Nord Stream 1 through the Baltic Sea, with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year; Yamal through Poland (33 bcm/year); Brotherhood system through Ukraine (40 bcm/year); TurkStream through Türkiye (31.5 bcm/year).
Of these, only TurkStream is still operational. Nord Stream and Yamal stopped transporting gas in 2022, while the Brotherhood pipeline stopped operating on the last day of 2024.
Nord Stream
The Nord Stream system, which runs between Russia and Germany through the exclusive economic zones of Finland, Sweden and Denmark, consists of two pairs of pipelines: Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, each with a capacity of 55 bcm/year. Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021 but has never been put into service.
In September 2022, Russia’s Gazprom halted gas shipments via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after discovering an oil leak in the main turbine at the Portovaya compressor station near St. Petersburg during a joint inspection with maintenance contractor Siemens Energy. Later that month, a series of explosions on the Baltic Sea floor damaged three of the four pipelines (two of Nord Stream 1 and one of Nord Stream 2).
With Russia cutting off pipeline gas, Germany has sought to diversify its energy supplies, reopening decommissioned coal plants, rapidly deploying renewable energy sources, and increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or Norwegian gas. However, according to one study, Europe’s No. 1 economy still imports 4-6% of its gas needs from Russia in the form of LNG.
Along with the possibility of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, rumors about the restart of the Nord Stream pipeline regularly appear.
There are reports that European Union (EU) officials from Hungary and Germany are considering resuming gas purchases from Russia.
There are also reports that some companies in East Germany will vote in favor of restarting the pipeline, while others are trying to prevent this from happening.
An interesting development came in January when the Danish energy agency granted permission for Nord Stream 2 to go ahead, citing safety concerns and environmental risks.
According to recent reports, Russia and the US may hold secret talks on restarting Nord Stream 2. However, in response to the rumors, the German Economy Ministry stated that the country is "not negotiating with Moscow on the possibility of supplying Russian gas via the pipeline."
So the signals seem mixed. What is certain is that the restart of the pipeline will have a significant impact on the European energy map. While it may not directly affect Central and Eastern Europe, if the Czech Republic were to oppose the resumption of transit, the increased security of supply would not change gas prices and therefore the region as a whole.
However, reopening Nord Stream could also mean the EU easing financial sanctions against Russia, as well as requiring permission from the countries through which the pipeline passes.
Yamal
The Yamal pipeline (33 bcm/year), which runs from Russia to Germany via Poland, was another important route before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On April 26, 2022, Gazprom suspended deliveries (not only to Poland but also to Bulgaria), citing the refusal of these countries to comply with Moscow’s demand to pay for gas in rubles. Warsaw then terminated the 1993 intergovernmental agreement with Russia that provided for the receipt of Russian gas via the Yamal pipeline.
In 2023, Poland's state-owned energy company Orlen took over its portion of the pipeline and began operating the route in the opposite direction, allowing Poland to import gas from Germany for domestic use.
Warsaw has diversified its supply sources by expanding its supplier base, building an LNG terminal in Świnoujście and developing new cross-border connections, including the Baltic Pipe, which is due to open in 2022 and will link Poland with Norway and be managed by the Orlen Group.
The Baltic states have also stopped importing gas from Russia in 2022, with Latvia even banning it altogether. There is currently no sign that supplies to the region will resume in the near future.
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| Restarting the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine could bring economic benefits to Kiev. (Source: bne IntelliNews) |
Ukraine
Ukraine had a gas transit contract with Gazprom until December 31, 2024. This contract was not renewed, leading to the interruption of Russian gas flows to European countries, including Slovakia and Austria.
One of the biggest questions in the new geopolitical situation is whether Kiev will consider restarting the pipeline – or starting to transport gas via another route, for example via the Trans-Balkan pipeline – and if so, where will it get the gas from and to which countries will it supply it?
For example, Hungary, which previously received Russian gas via Ukraine, has switched to the TurkStream pipeline, while supplies to Slovakia were also resumed this year via the pipeline under a contract that runs until 2034.
The Ukrainian transit route also supplies gas to Moldova, and the closure of the pipeline has caused a severe energy crisis in the breakaway Transnistrian region.
Moldova is looking to diversify its energy sources and could receive gas from Romania. However, a key question remains: How would the situation change if supplies from Ukraine were restored?
Restarting transit could be economically beneficial for Ukraine, not only because of the transit fees but also because the country is now forced to make up for its own gas shortage with expensive imports from Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.
While Kiev has not ruled out resuming Russian gas supplies after the conflict ends, the Eastern European country has recently become more vocal about prioritizing LNG, including American cargoes, and its goal of becoming an LNG hub. Much will depend on the negotiations and terms of a future peace deal.
TurkStream
Currently, the only pipeline in operation is TurkStream (31.5 bcm/year), which carries Russian gas to Central Europe. Türkiye receives gas from both Russia and Azerbaijan and ships it to European countries, including Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary. Russian gas from TurkStream can also flow to Greece, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and even Romania via the BalkanStream pipeline (with a capacity of 15.75 bcm/year).
After the gas transit agreement via Ukraine was suspended on January 1, 2025, gas supplies via TurkStream increased, and Russian gas flows via Bulgaria increased by 26.7% in January 2025 year-on-year, reaching a record high.
This suggests that some of the gas that was previously supplied from Ukraine has been diverted, while it may also be due to increased energy demand due to this colder-than-usual winter. If gas demand continues to rise in these parts of Europe, as it has in Greece, the question remains whether TurkStream alone can meet the region’s needs.
While the EU aims to completely disconnect from Russian gas by 2027, economic considerations continue to drive Russian gas demand, especially in the Balkans and Central Europe.
However, the future of Russian pipeline gas supplies remains uncertain, even in the context of peace talks, as political, economic and infrastructural factors will all influence future choices.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thoa-thuan-hoa-binh-nga-ukraine-co-hoi-vang-ngoc-de-hoi-sinh-cac-duong-ong-dan-khi-dot-sang-chau-au-nord-stream-tro-lai-306615.html
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