Kupyansk is a city near the border between Ukraine and Russia, which was captured by Russian troops in the first week of Russia's special military operation. The city was held by Russian troops for months, before being liberated by a Ukrainian army offensive in September 2022, along with many other settlements in the same area.
However, in recent weeks, the Russian military has been building up its forces to retake the city once again. A local Ukrainian official said on Thursday that large Russian reinforcements had turned the Kharkiv region on the northern frontline into the “epicenter” of hostilities.
Kupyansk authorities estimate that about 12,000 people, including more than 600 children, are preparing to evacuate.
Evacuations of this scale are not uncommon. Officials appointed by the Russian government ordered a partial evacuation of the occupied Zaporizhzhia region in May, when the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was shelled. Thousands of people were evacuated from the Kherson region in June, after the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam caused severe flooding.
However, on the Ukrainian side, authorities have not issued an evacuation order on this scale since October 2022, after the government launched an offensive to regain territories occupied by Russian troops in the Kherson region and wanted to evacuate residents to protect them.
The evacuation order for Kupyansk will also apply to settlements north and east of the city, along the banks of the Oskil River. Ukrainian forces have held positions on the eastern bank of the river, but have been facing a constant barrage of artillery and air strikes every day.
A Russian military bomb destroys a blood transfusion center in Kupyansk on August 5, 2023, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: Volodymyr Zelensky/Telegram.
Andriy Kanashevych, the acting head of the Kupyansk Regional Military Administration, said it was difficult to estimate the number of citizens who had begun to evacuate, as it was still difficult to get a clear picture of the population of Kupyansk since the city was liberated last year.
On Ukrainian state television, Mr Kanashevych said he wanted people living in areas subject to evacuation orders to “pack up and move”, but added: “We also understand that not everyone will want to do so.”
However, he stressed that Russian military attacks had escalated in the past week, saying “more destructive weapons are being used” and warning of “a number of significant threats to the local population”.
New "epicenter"
The Russian army has been preparing for the attack on Kupyansk for weeks.
In July, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, warned of a Russian military buildup in the region.
“The enemy is concentrating a large military force in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, with more than 100 thousand soldiers, 900 tanks and more than 370 missile launchers.”
He also said that Russian military forces were “investing everything they can to break the defenses” of Ukraine.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian authorities urged residents of Kupyansk to evacuate children and people with limited mobility. At least three civilians were killed and nine others injured in a missile attack by the Russian military on Tuesday.
Attacks have become increasingly fierce this week, with a rocket attack on the city hall in Kupyansk on Wednesday killing two people.
“Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military has shelled the settlements of Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv, Chuhuiv, Izium and Kupyansk with guided bombs and other weapons,” said Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv region military administration office.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on Thursday that its forces had captured several Ukrainian military positions and observation points around the village of Vilshana, northeast of Kupyansk. It added that its forces had killed between 20 and 50 Ukrainian infantrymen in the area.
By concentrating its forces on Kupyansk and surrounding areas, the Russian military aims to tie down Ukrainian forces in the area, preventing them from supporting the Kyiv government's counteroffensive in other areas, especially in its efforts to retake the territories around Bakhmut located south of Kupyansk in the Donetsk region.
This strategy also brings Russia closer to one of the goals of its military forces: control of the entire Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine and access to the “natural barrier” of the Oskil River.
The Russian military could also exploit weaknesses in Ukraine's defenses, where its forces are considered weaker.
Since recapturing Kupyansk and other areas in the Kharkiv region in September 2022, the Ukrainian military has mounted a daring offensive in the south. Its forces are spread across several positions along a 1,000-kilometer frontline. Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have used up to 500,000 rounds of ammunition in a week on the Kupyansk-Svatove battlefield alone.
“Kupyansk remains the epicenter of hostilities, where the enemy is concentrating its forces,” Ruslan Muzychuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian National Guard, said on state television.
“The size of the enemy forces, their equipment and their recent activities on this frontline are intended to turn the tide of war in the area.”
Nguyen Quang Minh (according to CNN)
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