Using a variety of offensive tactics, Ukraine reversed Russia's naval superiority in the Black Sea, facilitating the resumption of export operations at the main port of Odessa.
Commercial ships have begun departing from Ukraine’s southern port of Odessa to carry export cargo along the Black Sea coast without Russian security guarantees, signaling the changing tide in the Black Sea. By repeatedly launching missile and drone attacks on its own territory, Ukraine is pushing Russia from a blockade of the Black Sea to a defensive posture.
"To ensure our current and future security, we must regain our shores. This is a tactic that we are working on little by little," said Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksiy Neizhpapa.
When Russia launched the war in late February 2022, the Ukrainian navy was completely outnumbered and lost the battle in the Black Sea. Ukraine is said to have sunk its flagship in port to prevent it from falling into the hands of Russian forces.
Russia deployed warships of the Black Sea Fleet close to the Ukrainian coast, so close that the people of Odessa could see them with the naked eye. Russian warships continuously shelled the city, completely blocking all sea traffic, paralyzing the port of Odessa.
But so far, Russian warships have not ventured into the northwestern Black Sea region, due to the threat from Ukrainian missiles and mines. The Black Sea Fleet has also suffered heavy losses after a series of long-range raids by Ukraine.
The cargo ship Joseph Schulte leaves the port of Odessa on August 16. Photo: Reuters
Not only targeting Russian warships in the Black Sea, Ukraine has recently increased attacks on the ports of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula and Novorossiysk in Russia.
A Ukrainian cruise missile attack on a shipyard in Sevastopol last week destroyed the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don, one of six Russian submarines operating in the Black Sea, as well as the Ropucha-class landing ship Minsk, which Russia had planned to use to land troops on the shores of Odessa.
The damage from the attack will certainly complicate Russian naval operations in the coming months, according to military analysts. In addition to the navy, the air force and special forces of the Ukrainian intelligence agency have participated in many of the raids in the Black Sea.
Several Ukrainian-made long-range unmanned boats provide a new attack option at a time when Kiev cannot deploy conventional warships. “It is clear that unmanned boats make the enemy feel tense and unsafe in their own ports, let alone at sea,” Neizhpapa said.
The war in the Black Sea entered a new phase in July, after Russia withdrew from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative. The deal had allowed Ukraine to export 33 million tons of grain by ship under Russian control, but also limited the Ukrainian military’s ability to operate at sea.
To gain an advantage, Ukraine used unmanned boats to attack Russian tankers in the Kerch Strait in August and declared all major Russian ports in the Black Sea “conflict zones.” The list included Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest commercial port and a key gateway for Moscow’s vital oil exports.
How Ukrainian suicide boats attacked Russian targets. Video: AiTelly
Neizhpapa said Ukrainian forces had no intention of interfering with civilian shipping in the Black Sea. However, he added that the 1994 San Remo agreement on naval warfare allowed his forces to target commercial vessels supporting the Russian military or escorted by warships or aircraft.
"They are all legitimate targets," he said.
As the grain deal ended, the Ukrainian military unilaterally announced a new corridor for civilian cargo ships to and from Odessa last month, following Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters to Türkiye’s Bosphorus Strait. Six ships have left the port of Odessa through the corridor, including a Palau-flagged ship that arrived to pick up grain last weekend.
Ukrainian officials say the resumption of exports in Odessa is thanks to their ability to attack Russian ports.
"The Russians must realize that the Black Sea is no longer a one-sided game, but a two-sided game. If you don't touch us, we won't touch you," said Dmytro Barinov, deputy CEO of the Ukrainian Ports Administration.
Video released by SBU of attacks by Ukrainian drone boats. Video: CNN
In addition to drone attacks, Ukrainian special forces have used small speedboats to carry out a series of raids in recent weeks, eliminating key electronic surveillance equipment that Russia had deployed on gas platforms west of Crimea. Another group also conducted a lightning landing on Crimea’s west coast in an effort to destroy Russian air defense systems.
"It is clear that the Russians no longer have the initiative in the Black Sea because of the diverse offensive tactics of the Ukrainian navy and special forces. That is a very important change. The Ukrainians are gradually regaining the initiative and a series of small victories have begun to contribute to strategic success," said Michael Petersen, director of the Russian Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College.
Despite having a strong navy, Russia cannot send more ships to the Black Sea to compensate for the losses, because Türkiye, which controls the strait between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, has banned warships from passing through it since February 2022, according to the 1936 Montreux Convention.
The roughly 25,000-square-kilometer stretch of water in the northwestern Black Sea has become ungoverned, according to Neizhpapa. However, Russia still maintains air superiority there, something Neizhpapa believes will end when Kiev receives F-16 fighter jets in the coming months.
"I can guarantee that as long as F-16s appear in the Odessa area, no Russian aircraft will be able to operate in the northwestern part of the Black Sea," he said.
Last April, Ukrainian forces attacked the Black Sea Fleet's flagship Moskva with Kiev's domestically produced Neptune missiles, making it one of the largest warships sunk since World War II.
Ukraine initially targeted the Russian destroyer Admiral Essen, but the ship’s electronic warfare systems thwarted the attack, Neizhpapa said. The Admiral Essen suffered only minor damage and some sailors were injured.
"However, Russia still did not really believe that we had the Neptune missile," Neizhpapa said, adding that the Moskva flagship was later targeted by this domestic missile.
In addition to Odessa, Ukraine has also developed trade routes with ports along the Danube River, which is the natural border between Ukraine and Romania. In recent months, three ports, Izmail, Reni and Kiliya, have been repeatedly attacked by Russian drones, according to Ukrainian officials.
Location Odessa and the Black Sea. Graphics: WP
However, the Danube River ports continued to operate. In August, the Danube ports handled 3.2 million tons of grain. Meanwhile, the Odessa ports exported about 4.2 million tons per month when the Black Sea grain deal was in effect.
River transport is only suitable for ships under 10,000 tons, much smaller than the cargo ships that call at Odessa. That means less cargo can be transported but the cost is higher.
“Logistics costs eat up all the profit,” said Borys Yureskul, a farm owner in Ukraine.
That’s why resuming operations at the Odessa port is a top priority for Ukraine. Kiev officials say they can’t guarantee 100% safety for cargo ships from Russian attacks, but are negotiating with shipowners to increase the number of vessels that can dock.
"We will ensure their safety at all costs," Neizhpapa declared.
Thanh Tam (According to WSJ )
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