The Ministry of Industry and Trade has just requested many state management agencies and related enterprises to carefully study the provisions of the law and give opinions on the Draft to assess the implementation status and policy to adjust the Power Plan VIII.
Power Plan VIII was issued on May 15, 2023 and after more than 1 year of implementation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting a report to the Prime Minister on the implementation status.
The reason mentioned by the Ministry of Industry and Trade is that the growth rate of commercial electricity in the period of 2021-2025 as forecasted in the Power Plan VIII is difficult to achieve, so it is necessary to review and update the socio-economic development situation to accurately re-evaluate the load development situation, as a basis for reviewing and reorienting the development of power sources and grids in the next period.
Specifically, in the Power Plan VIII, the national commercial electricity growth rate in the 2021-2025 period is expected to reach 9.08%.
However, in reality, in the first 7 months of 2024, the growth rate of commercial electricity reached about 13.7%, a significant increase compared to the 2021-2023 period when it reached less than 5%.
Electromagnetic air: Many challenges remain
According to the Power Plan VIII, the total capacity of 23 gas-fired power projects invested in construction and put into operation by 2030 is 30,424 MW, of which the total capacity of power plants using domestically exploited gas is 7,900 MW (10 projects) and the total capacity of gas-fired power plants using LNG is 22,524 MW (13 projects).
However, up to now, the construction investment situation still faces many challenges.
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| Nhon Trach 3&4 LNG Power Project is under urgent construction. |
Apart from the O Mon I Thermal Power Plant (660 MW), which has been in operation since 2015 with oil as input fuel and will switch to using gas fuel when gas is available from Block B gas field, only the Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 Power Plant Projects, with a capacity of 1,624 MW, using imported LNG, are nearing the construction finish line with the plan to fire for the first time in October 2024 and operate commercially in May 2025. The remaining projects are all in the investment preparation stage.
“Except for Nhon Trach 3 and 4 Projects, which are expected to be operational in May 2025, the possibility of the remaining projects being completed before 2030 is difficult if there are no fundamental solutions to remove important bottlenecks for LNG power development such as regulations on minimum mobilized output, converting gas prices to electricity prices…”, is the assessment of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Thus, it is very likely that the power system will face a huge risk of power shortage in the period 2026-2030, potentially causing a loss of power supply security.
“LNG power sources are the main baseload sources to ensure safe and stable operation of the power system. The low baseload power rate by 2030, along with power sources not operating according to the planned schedule, will pose difficulties in ensuring power supply security in the 2026-2030 period, especially in the Northern region, and it is necessary to have solutions to speed up the progress of projects or replace projects at risk of being behind schedule,” is the opinion of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the Draft.
Coal-fired thermal power: Not easy
According to Power Plan VIII, coal-fired thermal power is planned to have a total installed capacity of 30,127 MW by 2030, and no coal will be used for power generation by 2050.
Thus, from now until 2030, the coal-fired thermal power source that needs to be put into operation is 3,383 MW and after 2030, coal-fired thermal power will not develop as committed.
Projects under construction include Na Duong II (110 MW), An Khanh – Bac Giang (650 MW), Vung Ang II (1,330 MW), Quang Trach I (1,403 MW) and Long Phu I (1,200 MW).
There are 5 coal-fired thermal power projects behind schedule, facing difficulties in changing shareholders and arranging capital, including Cong Thanh (600 MW), Nam Dinh I (1,200 MW), Quang Tri (1,320 MW), Vinh Tan III (1,980 MW) and Song Hau II (2,120 MW).
Of these 5 projects that are behind schedule, the Prime Minister has approved the Cong Thanh Thermal Power Project to consider the policy of studying the conversion of fuel to using LNG during the review of the adjusted Power Plan VIII. Meanwhile, the Quang Tri I Thermal Power Project has terminated its investment.
However, with Vietnam's commitment to zero net emissions by 2050, coal-fired thermal power is currently facing many difficulties and has not received consensus from localities as well as credit institutions. Increasingly stringent environmental requirements and difficulties in arranging investment capital mean that new coal-fired thermal power plants must use imported coal from abroad, and the feasibility of new coal-fired thermal power sources is not high.
Hydropower: Not much capacity left for development
According to Power Plan VIII, by 2030 the total capacity of hydropower sources will be 29,346 MW, and by 2050 the total installed capacity will be 36,016 MW.
Up to now, the total installed capacity of hydropower sources is 22,878 MW. Thus, hydropower sources can be developed according to the plan, but it is not favorable because there is not much capacity left for development.
With the total economic and technical potential of hydropower resources reaching a maximum of about 36,000 MW (including large, medium and small hydropower), in order to implement the approved Power Plan VIII, Vietnam needs to exploit the maximum economic and technical potential of hydropower.
This may encounter risks of natural disasters, climate change and other force majeure conditions.
Therefore, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has issued a document requesting localities to review and evaluate the potential for expansion and combination of hydropower plants in the irrigation reservoir system to determine the time to put them into operation.
Wind power: Loss of power
According to Power Plan VIII, by 2030, onshore and nearshore wind power capacity will reach 21,880 MW and by 2050, the total installed capacity will be from 60,050 to 77,050 MW.
However, up to now, the total installed wind power capacity has only reached 3,061 MW. Therefore, it is very difficult to achieve the capacity scale as set out in the Power Plan VIII.
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| Nearshore wind power project in Tra Vinh. |
In offshore wind power the situation is even more uncertain.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, to date, Vietnam has not had any offshore wind power projects granted investment policies or assigned to investors for implementation. At the same time, the approved Power Plan VIII and the Power Plan VIII implementation plan do not have sufficient basis to specifically determine the location and capacity of offshore wind power projects.
Besides, Vietnam does not have a complete and accurate database on wind speed surveys and wind potential in each region, locality as well as the whole country; current terrain status, and seabed depth.
According to many experts, the investment cost for offshore wind power is very large, about 2.5 billion USD/1,000 MW and the implementation time is 6-8 years from the beginning of the survey.
Thus, the offshore wind power capacity target according to Power Plan VIII of 6,000 MW by 2030 is very difficult to achieve in the current context.
Solar Power: Fast but Not Easy
Currently, according to the Power Plan VIII, by 2030 the total solar power capacity will be 12,836 MW and by 2050 the total solar power capacity will be 168,594-189,294 MW. Thus, the scale of solar power development by 2030 will not be much, only increasing by 1,500 MW.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, with the current situation, large power sources (gas and coal) are unlikely to meet the schedule for putting into operation by 2030, so in the short term, it is necessary to increase the scale of developing solar power projects (with quick implementation time) to meet the electricity supply capacity in the coming time.
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| Loc Ninh 1-2-3 Solar Power Plant. |
However, investors interested in new solar power projects will certainly observe very carefully the fact that the Government Inspectorate concluded at the end of 2023 that the Ministry of Industry and Trade approved the addition of 154 solar power projects to the planning without legal basis or basis out of a total of 168 solar power projects.
Of these, 123 projects are the main cause of imbalance in the power system and structure, and waste of social resources.
The Deputy Prime Minister has asked the Ministry of Public Security to carefully review 154 solar power projects on the list transferred by the Government Inspectorate. This agency must provide criteria for classifying projects according to violations. Specifically, projects that do not violate criminal laws or violations and can be remedied for further implementation will be considered by the authorities and proposed for handling. This is to avoid wasting assets of the State, businesses, and people.
Passive, confused power grid
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the slow progress of power source projects, which may not meet the schedule according to the approved Power Plan VIII, has also delayed the construction of synchronous power grid projects or power grids serving to release the capacity of power sources. This has changed a lot compared to the plan set out in Power Plan VIII.
According to Power Plan VIII, the project names of newly proposed renewable energy projects have been updated in the Power Plan VIII Implementation Plan, however, the grid volume and connection plan of the projects have not been determined, because they have not been determined in Power Plan VIII.
In addition, a number of projects to import electricity from abroad to Vietnam have been approved in principle by the Prime Minister. However, the connection plans for the projects have not been updated or added to the Power Plan VIII.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the plan to implement the Power Plan VIII has caused difficulties in the implementation process. Therefore, it is necessary to review the implementation status of power grid projects to adjust them in accordance with the progress of power sources and update and supplement power grid projects to the Power Plan VIII as a basis for implementation.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/bo-cong-thuong-ly-giai-viec-dieu-chinh-quy-hoach-dien-viii-d224180.html
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