(CLO) Tomorrow (November 5), the 2024 US presidential election will officially take place with a fierce confrontation between the two candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties. This is an event that the international community is particularly interested in because of its significance and role in the world political order.
Shaping the world tripod
Depending on whether the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, or the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, wins, the US foreign policy towards Russia and China will be different, thereby having certain impacts on the tripod between the three powers, which is considered the decisive factor shaping the world political order.
Ms. Kamala Harris and Mr. Donald Trump.
If Harris wins, the US approach to Russia and the Ukraine issue will inherit the policy of current President Joe Biden, who continues to show strong support for the Ukrainian military in the confrontation with Russia. There are even opinions that Harris may be tougher in resolving the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. In June, Kamala Harris represented the US at the Ukraine Peace Summit, where she met on the sidelines with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Harris pledged to strongly support transatlantic cooperation to support Kiev.
At the Munich Security Conference, Ms. Harris also reaffirmed the Biden Administration’s commitment to support Ukraine “for as long as necessary.” She strongly criticized Russia’s attacks on Ukraine.
But for Mr. Trump, the US approach to Russia and the Ukraine issue may be different; because, from a personal perspective, Mr. Trump does not consider Russia an opponent and the Ukraine issue “is a bargaining chip in a big geopolitical game”. During his election campaign, Mr. Trump repeatedly opposed the US’s multi-billion dollar aid packages for Ukraine; at the same time, he affirmed his readiness to compromise with Russia to quickly resolve the conflict.
Even if Mr. Trump's victory, if it happens, cannot quickly cool down US-Russia tensions and completely resolve the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, this could open the door to negotiations between the two powers with Mr. Trump's pragmatic "America First" policy.
The increasing cooperation between Russia and China is something that the US does not want. Therefore, it is possible that Mr. Trump's policy will cause certain obstacles in the Russia-China relationship, creating a "both cooperation and precaution" situation between the three powers.
Policy implications in the Indo-Pacific
Analysts say that the strategy in the Indo-Pacific region is a rare common point in the views and policies of the two parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. Therefore, it is understandable that the two presidential candidates of the two parties did not mention this issue much in their campaign programs to attack their opponents. In the coming time, the US will step up activities to concretize the strategy in the Indo-Pacific, in which China is identified as the leading competitor in this region.
During his 2016-2020 term, former President Donald Trump was a proponent of a policy of increased containment of China. Trump’s anti-China rhetoric was coupled with very specific restrictive measures against Beijing. Several legal mechanisms have emerged to impose sanctions against China, both in the form of federal laws and presidential executive orders.
In other words, the measures to contain Beijing come from both the executive branch and Congress. Under Joe Biden, the US’s anti-China policy has been somewhat more moderate, but the fundamental competition between the two countries continues. This situation is unlikely to be affected if the election results in a victory for Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate.
US-China relations will move towards healthy competition, something the Biden administration has repeatedly stated. However, analysts say that a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump could lead to a rapid deterioration of US-China relations.
ASEAN will continue to play an indispensable role as one of the US's "links" in the Indo-Pacific strategy, regardless of the administration of the two candidates Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Although both candidates did not mention ASEAN much during their election campaigns, the comprehensive strategic partnership shows that the relationship between the US and ASEAN is developing strongly, at least during the last two US presidential terms.
Economically, the US is currently the largest foreign direct investor in ASEAN, with total trade between the two sides reaching $500 billion by 2023. Since 2002, the US has provided more than $14.7 billion in economic, health and security assistance to regional partners, affirming its indispensable role in ASEAN's comprehensive development. Security and defense cooperation between the US and regional countries has also been strengthened in recent times.
According to political analysts, thanks to maintaining an impressive economic growth rate and an important geopolitical position, ASEAN is increasingly attractive to major countries, especially the US. In addition to strengthening its alliances with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, the US cannot ignore the role of ASEAN to return to the Indo-Pacific region and Southeast Asia, in the face of the "rise" of China.
However, a Trump victory could create headaches for ASEAN countries. If elected, a second term for Trump could be accompanied by large tariff increases and the potential for another trade war, with major implications for production networks across Asia. Policies that could impact Southeast Asia’s export sector would increase political pressure on ASEAN countries.
Ha Anh
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/y-nghia-cua-cuoc-bau-cu-my-voi-tinh-hinh-the-gioi-post319872.html
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