VASEP said shrimp exports to China could recover slightly in the first months of 2024, after a year of decline.
2023 is a year of many challenges for the Vietnamese shrimp industry. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shrimp export value reached only 3.4 billion USD, down 22%. Following this trend, shrimp exports to China also decreased, although the decrease was the lowest (8%) among the main import markets (the US decreased by 15%, Japan decreased by 24%, the EU decreased by 39%).
In fact, the demand for shrimp imports from the billion-people country is still increasing strongly, but because there are too many supply sources (for example from India and Ecuador) pouring into this market, Vietnamese shrimp is finding it difficult to compete on price. However, VASEP said that thanks to its geographical proximity, Vietnamese businesses going to China have an advantage in transportation costs. In particular, tensions in the Red Sea have caused shipping costs to increase, which could cause Ecuador to reduce exports to China, creating opportunities for Vietnamese shrimp. In the first months of 2024, VASEP forecasts that shrimp exports to this market may recover slightly.
Similar to China, shrimp exports are also expected to be favorable in the US and Japan. The US market is forecast to increase slightly as demand for food improves, inflation cools down and retail sales in the country recover. However, VASEP also noted that the American Shrimp Association recently filed a request for an anti-subsidy tax investigation on Vietnamese shrimp. The results are not yet clear, but Vietnamese shrimp is still affected in the first half of this year, in addition to obstacles from tensions in the Red Sea.
For Japan, this market is assessed to have more potential to recover sooner than the US and EU in 2024. The reason is that Japanese consumers require products to be delicious, nutritious, beautiful, and elaborately processed, suitable for Vietnam's processing level and capacity. Popular shrimp products exported from Vietnam to Japan include breaded, stretched, fried, and sushi shrimp. Currently, Vietnamese shrimp still maintains a good competitive advantage in this market. In addition, Japan is geographically closer than the US and EU and payment methods are also safer.
On the contrary, with economic and political instability, the EU market will not be able to recover for most of 2024. However, shrimp demand in this region is expected to remain stable and not decrease further.
VASEP said that the recovery momentum for shrimp exports will generally face many difficulties, requiring businesses to make more efforts to overcome difficulties. The shrimp industry's export turnover is expected to reach about 4 billion USD in 2024, up 5% compared to last year.
Duc Minh
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