Rice exports reach unprecedented numbers

Take advantage of new crop planting

In early 2023, Vietnam's target was to export about 7 million tons of rice (equivalent to 7.1 million tons in 2022), but by the end of November it had reached 7.8 million tons. Many people believe that the whole year's results will reach the historic milestone of 8 million tons, worth at least 4.6 billion USD. Due to the record high export output, there is not much rice left in the market. Enterprises that still owe contracts to pay are forced to buy rice and raw rice at high prices. Specifically, regular rice in the field is about 9,000 VND/kg, raw rice is from 15,500 - 16,000 VND/kg. Also because the price is too high, most enterprises do not dare to sign new contracts while the demand for rice from other countries is still high, especially the Philippines and Indonesia.

Vietnam's rice export for the whole year of 2023 is forecasted to be 8 million tons, with a turnover of 4.6 billion USD.

On the other hand, people in the Mekong Delta are rushing to plant the winter-spring rice crop with the spirit of "the sooner the better, to take advantage of the opportunity of high prices".

Mr. Pham Thai Binh, General Director of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (Can Tho City), said: "Our company has just planted the winter-spring crop 2-3 days ago, on an 800-hectare raw material area in Hon Dat District (Kien Giang). Compared to previous years, this time is also about a week to 10 days earlier. After sowing, it will only take about 90 days to harvest". "That said, it does not mean that the Mekong Delta has run out of rice. We still have a part of the early winter-spring rice area and rice according to the shrimp rice model in coastal areas such as Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau, Kien Giang... being harvested. Rice grown according to this model is specialty rice, mainly ST variety, so it has high value", said Mr. Binh.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Van Don, Director of Viet Hung Company Limited in Tien Giang, informed: Currently, the world market demand is still high but businesses have to wait for the new harvest. From now until the end of the year, there are only a few small orders with a quantity of a few containers per shipment. Among these, there may be businesses paying orders according to contracts or exporting high-end products. The export price of rice of other countries has increased but we have not increased it because there is no source of goods to trade.

According to businesses, the peak winter-spring rice harvest this year will fall after the Lunar New Year. At the time of "crowding", large output, prices may slightly decrease, with 5% broken rice exported at around 640 USD/ton. After that, it may increase slightly again and maintain a high level until at least mid-2024.

Why does the world "love" Vietnamese rice?

At one point in November, the price of Vietnamese rice was 100 USD/ton higher than that of Thailand. However, recently, the price of rice from other countries, especially Thailand, has increased continuously, significantly narrowing the gap with Vietnamese rice. Specifically, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), in the past 2 weeks, the price of rice from other countries, especially Thailand, has increased continuously, currently 5% broken rice is 632 USD/ton, an increase of about 50 USD compared to mid-November. The price of the same grade of Pakistani rice is about 600 USD/ton. Meanwhile, Vietnamese rice is stable at 663 USD/ton and is about 30 USD higher than Thai rice.

Mr. Chookiat Ophaswongse, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), admitted that one of the reasons for the recent sharp increase in Thai rice prices is due to limited supply from Vietnam. Thai rice exporters have received new contracts from "unexpected" customers such as the Philippines and Brazil.

So what makes world customers "crazy" about Vietnamese rice despite its high price? According to Mr. Don, in trade, value often goes hand in hand with quality. The highest price of Vietnamese rice in the world shows that consumers recognize our quality as the best in the segment. In addition to quality, countries like to buy Vietnamese rice because of its freshness. Vietnamese products are exported immediately after harvest. This is very suitable for the market thanks to its good quality and long storage time. In terms of supply and demand, India continues to stop exporting while India's normal rice export output is equal to Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar combined. Now that countries have stopped exporting, it will inevitably lead to a global shortage. In addition, there is the impact of dry weather factors caused by the El Nino phenomenon.

Analysis shows that the world's demand for rice continues to remain high. The Philippines is a traditional customer of Vietnam and the world's largest rice importer, and is still in demand at present. Recently, to ensure reserves for national food security, the Philippine government has asked traders in the country to increase rice imports. Output is at least 1 million tons in the last month of 2023. If businesses do not comply well, they will be put on the "blacklist". Meanwhile, the most populous country in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, also forecasts that the first rice harvest in 2024 may be delayed by up to 2 months compared to the usual March - April. Therefore, this country will have to import a large amount of rice to ensure food security and forecasts that the import volume for the whole year of 2024 will be about 2 million tons.

Regarding rice supply, The Hindu business line recently quoted Indian research agencies as saying: Rice export restrictions will not be eased before the April-May elections. In particular, the world will have many impacts on drought conditions due to El Nino during this period. These two factors will contribute significantly to maintaining high rice prices until mid-2024.

Meanwhile, last month the World Bank (WB) predicted that rice prices "will not decrease significantly" before 2025. Also to deal with the rising global rice price fever, even a rice exporting country like Thailand has issued a policy of supporting capital and interest rates so that people can temporarily store for at least 5 months instead of selling immediately after harvest.

The organizers affirmed that "ST25 rice is the best in the world in 2023"

On December 5, the Organizing Committee of the 2nd World's Best Rice Contest issued a press release confirming that ST25 Rice developed by Ho Quang Tri Enterprise is the winning rice variety of the "World's Best Rice" contest in 2023.

Accordingly, ST25 is the only Vietnamese rice variety to make it into the top 3, along with rice from India and Cambodia. ST25 is a rice variety developed by a research team led by Mr. Ho Quang Cua. This is also the winning rice variety at the 2019 World's Best Rice Contest.

The reason the Organizing Committee of the competition had to issue a second press release was because: "Some opinions say that all varieties in Vietnam participating in the 2023 delicious rice competition "are winners". If all varieties in Vietnam win, what will happen to other rice varieties in the world and will not encourage researchers to spend their lives in the fields to select rice varieties with special quality. If everything is quality, there is no effort towards excellence", the press release stated.

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