Exports in 2024 are forecast to increase the most since 2021

A newly released report by UOB forecasts that Vietnam's exports will increase by 18% this year, the highest since 2021.

A newly released report by UOB Bank forecasts that Vietnam's exports this year will increase by 18%, the highest since 2021.

According to the General Statistics Office, in 2023, export turnover will reach 355.5 billion USD, down 4.4% compared to 2022. Therefore, UOB's forecast means this year's results could be close to 420 billion USD.

Exports in 2024 are forecast to increase the most since 2021

According to data from the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to November 15, export turnover was approximately equal to last year's, reaching 352.38 billion USD, up 14.8% over the same period in 2023.

Some notable product groups include: Computers, electronics and components increased by 12.79 billion USD (26.1%); machinery, equipment and spare parts increased by 8.08 billion USD (21.7%). Along with that, textiles, wood and wood products also grew by double digits.

As of November 15, the country’s total import value reached US$329.1 billion, up 16.6% year-on-year. According to UOB, this year’s trade growth is partly due to continued expansion of foreign direct investment flows.

In the first 10 months of the year, 27.3 billion USD of FDI was registered in Vietnam. Disbursed capital is on track to reach a record level for the third consecutive year. The latest published data shows that Vietnam's growth trajectory remains on track.

However, the short-term situation shows signs of slowing down. The Vietnam Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by S&P Global in November recorded 50.8 points, indicating that the manufacturing sector grew for the second consecutive month, but not as much as October, when the PMI reached 51.2.

Output and new orders slowed, with new orders from abroad falling after rising slightly in the previous month, according to the New York-based financial information and analytics firm.

To some extent, the slowdown reflected weakening international demand, with exports falling by the most since July 2023, said Andrew Harker, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Still, S&P Global's survey said Vietnamese manufacturers remain optimistic about output growth next year, with expectations related to new product launches and business expansion, plus rising new orders.

By the end of November, total import-export turnover was estimated at about 715 billion USD, up 15.3%, with a trade surplus of over 23 billion USD; the whole year is estimated to reach 807.7 billion USD, the highest ever. The outstanding efforts of enterprises along with the active support and companionship from the Government, ministries and branches are important factors helping to bring about "sweet fruit" this year.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-2024-du-bao-tang-cao-nhat-ke-tu-nam-2021-362564.html