Is Ukraine exaggerating its air defense power?

According to CNN, this month alone, Russia has launched eight missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, the latest of which involved the launch of at least 18 missiles and a series of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, Kyiv claimed to have intercepted all of them, and affirmed that no targets were damaged in the attacks.

Before this announcement, Russian military commanders, as well as Western analysts, questioned what had suddenly made Ukraine's air defense system so impregnable.

Russia says Kinzhal hypersonic missile destroyed US Patriot system supplied to Ukraine

Ukraine's Exaggeration?

Until recently, most analysts and even US defense officials did not believe that Ukraine's air defenses were capable of repelling a sustained Russian attack.

Patriot missile defense system

Just last month, leaked US government documents revealed that Ukraine’s stockpile of medium-range anti-aircraft missiles inherited from the Soviet Union was severely depleted. Meanwhile, even Alexander Rodnyansky, economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy, recently admitted to CNN that Kyiv’s air defenses were “not good enough to cope” with the Russian onslaught.

These assessments follow the March 9 attack, in which Russia launched 84 missiles at major cities across Ukraine. At the time, even Kyiv acknowledged that six Russian Kinzhal ballistic missiles had overcome Ukrainian air defenses.

The more Russia launches missile attacks, the more Ukraine's air defense capabilities improve?

Not just thanks to Patriot

While saying that Kyiv’s claims were exaggerated, experts also acknowledged that Western weapons may have helped bolster Ukraine’s air defenses. Some observers agree that the US-made Patriot missile interceptor system has helped turn the tide of the war. The US and Germany have each supplied Ukraine with a Patriot battery.

Avenger air defense system mounted on a Humvee

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, USA), Patriot missiles can attack high- and medium-altitude aircraft, cruise missiles and some ballistic missiles. The Patriot system is considered so "terrifying" that Russia has decided to eliminate them.

Experts believe that Moscow’s massive wave of airstrikes this month was designed to destroy the Patriot. Two unnamed US officials said that Russian airstrikes on March 16 may have damaged, but not destroyed, one of Ukraine’s Patriot systems, according to Reuters.

In addition, according to CSIS, Kyiv has also received many short- and medium-range air defense missiles from other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members. The most advanced systems available, including the German IRIS-T and Hawk (the predecessor of the Patriot), are said to have contributed significantly to strengthening Ukraine's air defense system.

F-16 fighter jets will be helpless in Ukraine against Russian air defense systems?

Gen. Serhiy Nayev, commander of Ukrainian forces stationed on the border with Belarus and Russia, also said the US Avenger air defense system, mounted on Humvees, is now being used to protect major cities and Ukrainian ground forces near the front line. The general described the Avenger as “a very important boost” to Ukraine’s air defenses, according to ABC News.

In addition, according to Ukraine, the weapons it possessed before the conflict broke out, mainly Soviet-era systems including S-300 and Buk M1 medium-range air defense missiles, also demonstrated a success rate of about 80%.

Ukraine's top priority right now

But according to leaked Pentagon documents, Kyiv is rapidly running out of ammunition for its Soviet-era systems. CSIS said that with the limited number of missiles remaining, Ukraine needs to allocate them to its highest priorities, including preventing Russian aircraft or missiles from reaching Kyiv's most sensitive targets, CNN reported.

Waiting for Ukraine's air defense to weaken, Russia launches special weapons?

According to the Ukrainian military, Russia has recently launched a series of attacks from multiple directions and with various types of weapons to weaken Kyiv's air defense systems, in order to facilitate further waves of airstrikes.

However, Ian Williams, a fellow at the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, predicted that Russia's missile arsenal may be depleted, while allies still intend to continue to aid Ukraine. According to Williams, to the extent possible, additional interceptors and air defense equipment "should remain a top priority in Western military aid packages."

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