From now until the end of 2024, is there a worry about power shortage?

Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien has just reported on the situation and results of implementing the National Assembly's Resolution on questioning and issues promised at the previous session in the field of Industry and Trade.

This report highlights a series of issues in the development of the electricity industry, including renewable electricity (wind, solar), offshore wind power development strategy and electricity supply situation from now until the end of 2024 and 2025.

Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien

According to the Minister of Industry and Trade, the total electricity output of the national power system in September 2024 reached 24.8 billion kWh (including rooftop solar power output sold to the system and electricity imported from the system), 5.9% higher than the same period in 2023.

In the first 9 months of 2024, the total electricity output of the national power system reached 232.85 billion kWh, 10.98% higher than the same period in 2023, reaching 74.97% of the plan (310.6 billion kWh) approved in Decision No. 924/QD-BCT dated April 19, 2024 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on approving the adjustment of the National Power Supply and Operation Plan in 2024.

During September 6-8, storm No. 3 (Yagi) and the impact of the storm's circulation caused very heavy damage to many power lines and distribution transformer stations in many provinces and cities in the North. Power units in the North urgently mobilized human resources, vehicles, materials and equipment to overcome the consequences of natural disasters, restore communication systems, quickly handle grid damage and arising incidents, and quickly restore power supply to customers affected by storms and floods in the fastest time possible.

Also in September, due to the impact of floods caused by storm No. 3 and the circulation of storm No. 3, the water flow to hydroelectric reservoirs across the country increased. Most of the water flow to hydroelectric reservoirs continued to be higher than the average of many years. Large hydroelectric reservoirs in the Northern region operated according to the Inter-reservoir and Single-reservoir Procedures and complied with the management of the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control and the Steering Committees for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control of provinces and cities.

Hydropower sources have been flexibly mobilized according to the actual hydrological situation. Thermal power sources have been reasonably mobilized to meet the electricity demand of the load, ensuring power quality and system stability.

Gas power sources are mobilized according to gas supply capacity and power system demand. Combined with flexible solutions for inter-regional power transmission, the electricity supply situation from the beginning of 2024 to present has been well implemented, ensuring sufficient response to the needs for socio-economic development and daily life of people nationwide.

Regarding the ability to meet the remaining months of 2024, the Minister of Industry and Trade stated that according to the updated report of the National Electricity System and Market Operation Company Limited (NSMO), the basic electricity supply is guaranteed for the remaining time of 2024, ensuring the production and daily needs of the people.

Electricity growth is not expected to increase as high as in the first months of the year, with an estimated cumulative growth of about 10.11% for the whole year of 2024. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to transition to La Nina in the last months of 2024.

The water flow to hydropower reservoirs is expected to be higher than the forecast at the beginning of the year, so hydropower sources will continue to be mobilized. Thermal power sources with high electricity production costs will be mobilized accordingly. However, the power system still needs to maintain a minimum amount of thermal power capacity to ensure grid operation standards, as well as the availability of the power system to ensure backup, especially for the North.

Accumulated in the first 9 months of 2024, the total electricity of the entire national power system reached 232.85 billion kWh (Illustration photo: KT)

"The reserve capacity of the national power system is forecast to remain low until the end of October. In case of high load combined with unfavorable factors of the power system, there is still a potential risk of having to adjust the load during peak hours," the Minister of Industry and Trade worried.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will continue to regularly monitor and supervise the supply of fuel (coal, gas, oil), the operation of power sources, and urge and direct corporations, general companies, and related units to continue to strictly implement solutions to ensure electricity supply in the remaining months of 2024.

Risks affecting the security of electricity supply

Regarding the ability to meet the following years and solutions, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien affirmed that in the coming years, electricity demand is forecast to grow at a high level, ensuring electricity supply during this period will face many difficulties and challenges, especially in cases where power sources are behind schedule compared to the approved planning, or extreme weather events occur.

“In the Northern and Southern regions, due to low reserve capacity and electricity levels at some points, peak capacity shortages may occur. In case of extreme developments that may affect the assurance of electricity supply, load demand regulation may be implemented at some points to ensure electricity supply security,” the Minister of Industry and Trade informed.

Electricity load demand regulation may be implemented at some point to ensure electricity supply security (Illustration photo: KT)

In preparation for ensuring electricity supply in 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has directed the National Electricity System and Market Operation Company Limited (NSMO) to closely coordinate with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN), the Electricity Trading Company and operation management units to unify input parameters for calculating the National Electricity System Operation Method in 2025. Based on the NSMO report, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will appraise and approve the National Electricity System Operation Method in 2025 as a basis for directing and operating to ensure electricity supply in 2025.

Previously, on September 19, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Official Dispatch No. 7287/CD-BCT on ensuring safe and stable operation of power plants in the coming time. In particular, it directed units to implement the following solutions: Power plants need to have a reasonable maintenance and repair plan, promptly fix problems of generators to be able to generate maximum capacity; Ensure the supply of input materials (electricity, coal, gas) to serve the demand for power generation; Continue to ensure the progress of completing projects on power sources and transmission grids; Implement electricity saving measures and promote communication on electricity saving.

Source: https://vov.vn/kinh-te/tu-nay-den-cuoi-nam-2024-co-lo-thieu-dien-post1129894.vov