Trump reaffirms Republican dominance

The overwhelming victory in Iowa marked an impressive comeback and affirmed Mr. Trump's unrivaled influence in the Republican Party.

History shows that one-term US presidents who lose their second term tend to have a hard time pulling off upsets in the primary. However, former President Donald Trump has proven that he can change that trend.

In the first caucus in Iowa on January 15, Mr. Trump won 51% of the vote, leaving his two potential opponents Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley behind by 30 and 32 percentage points, respectively, the largest gap in the history of the primary round in this state.

With that overwhelming victory, Trump showed that he still dominates the Republican Party, despite being in American politics for only 8 years. "The big night is coming in November, when we will take back our country," Mr. Trump said after the Iowa caucuses.

Crowds of supporters wearing MAGA (Make America Great Again) hats greeted him with chants of "Trump, Trump, Trump", below a large screen displaying the words "Trump wins Iowa".

Former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Waterloo, Iowa, in December 2023. Photo: AFP

The former president’s victory was even more impressive for another reason. He easily won over Republican voters in Iowa despite 91 criminal charges in the largest legal challenge ever to a former US president. Immediately after the Iowa caucuses, Trump appeared in court in Manhattan, New York, for a defamation trial against former journalist Jean Carroll.

The Iowa caucuses on January 15 took place more than three years after a mob of former president supporters stormed Capitol Hill to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden's 2020 victory, in an unprecedented riot in US history.

"The Iowa win shows that for the Republican base, Trump doesn't seem to have paid any price for that terrible riot," said CNN analyst Stephen Collinson.

Collinson added that Trump’s ability to use his legal troubles to paint a picture of a “witch hunt” by President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party has given him “superpowers.” That dynamic has helped renew his relationship with Republican voters, while his opponents in the race have been reluctant to exploit it for fear of alienating them.

"He's been investigated on a lot of issues. If there was something really serious, they would have found it four or five years ago," John Golnick, a 70-year-old resident of Iowa, said of Mr. Trump.

Energy is what many supporters point to when talking about the former president. In their eyes, Mr. Trump is a "warrior who repels unjust attacks."

"They're just a hoax by the Democrats and the media. I don't think any of the charges against him are justified," said David Marshall, a New Hampshire supporter, referring to Trump's legal troubles.

New Hampshire will be the next state to hold its Republican primary on January 23. The latest Boston Globe/Suffolk University/NBC-10 Boston poll shows the former president has 50% support among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

Former US ambassador Nikki Haley came in second with 34% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with just 5%. Trump's win in Iowa also increased the pressure on them in the run-up to the Republican nomination.

Kari Lake, a staunch Trump supporter who is running for Senate in Arizona, said at the former president's victory party in Iowa that other candidates cannot win and are running "futile" campaigns.

Trump's landslide victory could also de-motivate his main rivals, Haley and DeSantis, after the Iowa caucuses, observers say.

“This isn’t a race for second place, it’s a race for the best candidate. And everyone is losing, except Trump,” said Republican strategist Scott Jennings. “Republicans want to give Trump another chance to prove they were wrong, that the whole thing was a witch hunt, that the election was rigged. They clearly want to give him another chance, and we’re seeing that in these caucuses.”

Iowa is just one state in the long road to the party’s nomination. The caucus votes here represent only a fraction of the state’s population. But Mr. Trump’s dominance among rural voters in the state reflects his base of support across rural and suburban America, according to Collinson.

Polls show that Mr Trump’s victory in Iowa could be replicated in most Republican strongholds in the US. The most recent WSJ poll found Mr Trump with 71% support among rural Republican primary voters, compared to 59% among Republicans overall.

In the 2016 election, Mr. Trump overwhelmingly defeated Mrs. Hillary Clinton with 60% of the vote in 2,332 counties, mostly small towns and rural areas of the United States. In the 2020 election, he also won nearly two-thirds of the rural vote across the United States, but lost to Mr. Biden in key battleground states.

Trump supporters clashed with police and security forces as they stormed the Capitol building in Washington, DC on January 6, 2021. Photo: AFP

Observers stress that Mr. Trump's influence in the Republican Party seems unlikely to be shaken despite his chaotic departure from the White House and the legal troubles that surround him.

"Trump is not a candidate, he is the leader of a national movement," former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich emphasized.

For many Republicans, Mr. Trump is also a good steward of the economy, their top concern. The latest FT-Michigan Ross poll, conducted from December 28, 2023 to January 2, found that two-thirds of Republicans said they trusted Mr. Trump more than any other party candidate to handle the U.S. economy.

"Trump's record speaks for itself and I think we need him back to restore the economy," said Osmund Bud Jermeland, a 65-year-old resident of Iowa.

Analyst Collinson said Mr Trump's victory in Iowa made the idea of ​​the American billionaire returning to the White House more likely.

“Barring some unforeseen event, Mr Trump’s dominance in Iowa shows the extreme difficulty any of his remaining opponents will face in their bid to win the Republican nomination,” Collinson said.

Thanh Tam (According to CNN, NY1, FT, Politico )

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