Which industry group will lead the Vietnamese stock market in 2025?

Dr. Tran Thang Long, Director of Analysis, BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company

So will the money flow continue to flow strongly into banks, real estate or shift to retail and information technology? When the KRX system is about to operate and upgrade is within reach, what should investors do to seize the opportunity amid the storm of the global trade war?

Growth beyond expectations

The Vietnamese stock market has been asserting its appeal since the first months of 2025, despite the global economic turmoil. Dr. Tran Thang Long, Director of Analysis at BSC, said that from the beginning of the year to the end of March, the VN Index increased by about 5.5%, while average liquidity reached VND22,000 - 23,000 billion/session - a fairly positive level compared to the average of many years. This achievement emerged as a bright spot amid the escalating trade war and the Fed's unpredictable interest rate policy.

According to Dr. Long, the main driving force comes from the business results in the fourth quarter of 2024, when listed enterprises achieved strong growth compared to the same period last year, creating confidence for investors. At the same time, the Government has set a GDP growth target of 8% or more in 2025, reinforced by gradually decreasing and stabilizing interest rates, along with tax exemption, reduction and deferral policies. These measures not only promote business activities, but also raise positive expectations. Investors are appreciating the policies and positive business prospects, contributing to bringing an unexpected start to the market.

Regarding cash flow, Mr. Long said that growth was not evenly distributed but focused on key industries. Cash flow in the past three months has flowed strongly into stocks of minerals, construction materials, banking, finance (especially securities) and real estate, with increases of 9% to 19%.

The reason lies in the sensitivity of these industries to interest rates and domestic economic prospects. Lower interest rates create advantages for banks, securities, and real estate, while domestic economic recovery stimulates demand for construction materials and minerals. Moreover, these industries are less affected by external factors than the export group in the recent period.

“However, not all sectors are favorable. Information technology suddenly plummeted, was sold off heavily, down about 13% compared to the beginning of the year, different from the usual positive developments. This is a notable point, raising questions about the industry's ability to recover amid the fluctuations,” Dr. Long noted.

Opportunities from internal strength and challenges from external

Looking at the whole year 2025, Dr. Long is optimistic that this is a good time for stock investors. BSC forecasts the VN-Index to reach 1,425 points, P/E around 14 - 14.5 times, with listed companies' profits increasing by 16% - 18%. This forecast is based on positive macro factors, when GDP is aiming for 7.5 - 8%.

“Two major events will be the main drivers: the stock market is likely to be upgraded by FTSE in September, combined with the KRX trading system expected to be operational in the middle of this year. These changes will bring excitement and optimism, making investors willing to accept higher valuations than in 2024,” he said.

However, challenges remain. Foreign investors sold a net VND16 trillion in the first two months of 2025, while the world faces many trade conflicts that affect the global economy and related countries. The market may adjust when news of the trade war appears, but will recover and grow positively afterwards.

To clarify the external impact, Dr. Long analyzed the impact of the Fed's interest rate and the trade war. At the end of 2024, the survey showed that the Fed will cut interest rates less than expected, but recently the possibility of cutting two to three times this year has increased, affecting the global financial market, including Vietnam. The decline of the US dollar index reduces pressure on domestic exchange rates, creating conditions for the State Bank to regulate more flexibly. The interest rate on treasury bills decreased to 3% at the end of February, after which the State Bank stopped issuing treasury bills, pumping net through OMO to maintain liquidity, supporting economic recovery, he said.

Regarding the trade war, accurate forecasting is a big challenge when the US consumes a huge amount of goods, making any tariff move have a wide impact. Experience from Canada and Mexico shows that when information about the tax was announced last November, the market fell 2%, but recovered after 1-2 months. When the tax was officially imposed in late January and February, Mexico increased by 1.7%, Canada decreased by 2%. If Vietnam faces the tax, the negative developments may only last for a short time, about a week, then recover, Dr. Long predicted.

Future Cash Flows: From Banking, Real Estate to Retail, Technology

Dr. Long assessed that cash flow will continue to flow strongly in 2025, with liquidity increasing clearly from the beginning of the year. In the first phase, information about the upgrade and KRX will promote the securities, banking, real estate, and materials industries, especially in the group of large-cap stocks with high liquidity and many rooms, often included in the international index basket.

In the second half of the year, cash flow may shift to sectors with good profit prospects, such as recovering retail, along with information technology, logistics, and industrial parks – sectors that maintain sustainable growth, linked to Vietnam’s long-term development. This rotation not only reflects the market rhythm but also opens up diverse opportunities for investors.

In the context of both potential and challenges, Dr. Long proposed a specific strategy. Accordingly, veteran investors can flexibly choose a strategy based on their personal risk level. For those new or unfamiliar with the market, fund certificates are a safe and effective solution.

For independent investors, opportunities will appear in many sectors in the coming time. They should hold 3-5 stocks from different sectors to have a buffer when fluctuations occur, take advantage of opportunities, and maintain a long-term portfolio to enjoy the growth of the VN-Index. Balance and flexibility are the key factors for success.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/nhom-nganh-nao-se-dan-dat-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-trong-nam-2025-161859.html