(PLVN) - Many economic indicators in the first two months of 2025 grew positively, but compared to the scenario to achieve the GDP growth target of 8% in 2025, they have not met expectations.
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| Industrial production growth was the highest in the past 5 years but did not meet expectations. |
(PLVN) - Many economic indicators in the first two months of 2025 grew positively, but compared to the scenario to achieve the GDP growth target of 8% in 2025, they have not met expectations.
On March 6, 2025, the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) announced the economic situation in the first two months of the year. Accordingly, industrial production grew positively with an increase of 7.2%, the highest increase in the same period of the years in the period 2021-2025, in which the production index of the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.3% (in the same period last year, it increased by 6.6%).
Trade and service activities are vibrant and maintain a high growth rate compared to the same period last year. In the first two months of 2025, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 9.4% over the same period last year; passenger transport increased by 13.8% and turnover increased by 16.2%; freight transport increased by 14.5% and turnover increased by 11.8%.
Total import and export turnover of goods reached 127.07 billion USD, up 12% over the same period last year, of which exports increased by 8.4%; imports increased by 15.9%. The trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of 1.47 billion USD.
Many activities to attract international tourists continued to be promoted from the beginning of 2025. International visitors to Vietnam in the first two months of 2025 reached more than 3.96 million arrivals, an increase of 30.2%.
According to the General Statistics Office, positive signals from production, business, tourism and trade activities have created momentum to increase state budget revenue. In the first two months of 2025, state budget revenue is estimated at VND499.8 trillion, equal to 25.4% of the annual estimate and up 25.7% over the same period last year.
Notably, investment from the state budget has been implemented vigorously, contributing to creating momentum for economic growth. The realized investment capital from the state budget is estimated at VND 73.2 trillion, equal to 8.5% of the annual plan and up 21.7% over the same period last year (the same period in 2024 was equal to 7.7% and up 2.6%).
However, an indicator that could have a strong impact on the growth target in 2025 is that the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market is higher than the number of enterprises entering the market. Accordingly, the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market is 67 thousand enterprises, the number of enterprises entering the market is 49.8 thousand enterprises. Of which, the number of enterprises completing dissolution procedures is 3.8 thousand enterprises, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year and the highest level in the same period in the period 2021-2025.
The representative of the General Statistics Office commented that the growth target of 8% or more in 2025 is a big challenge for the entire economy with the scenario of 7.7% growth in the first quarter; 8.1% growth in the second quarter; 8% growth in the third quarter; and 8.2% growth in the fourth quarter. In particular, the first quarter and the data of the first two months of the year have shown that there are many challenges to the first quarter target.
Specifically, the mining industry's production index in the first two months of 2025 decreased significantly, making it difficult to achieve the target set for the first quarter of this year. The manufacturing and processing industry's production index in the first two months of 2025 increased by 9.3%, only lower than the same period in 2021 (9.4%), while the target set for the first quarter of this year is for the added value of the manufacturing and processing industry to increase by 9.8%. Because to achieve the growth target of the first quarter, the IIP growth rate of the manufacturing and processing industry must increase by at least over 10%. "This is a big challenge for industrial production in the first quarter" - a representative of the General Statistics Office commented.
Not to mention, in the first two months of 2025, the growth rate of realized foreign investment (FDI) was only higher than the same period in 2023 (the first two months of 2023 decreased by 4.9%) over the past 5 years. The low growth in realized FDI (accounting for about 16-20% of total social investment capital) will be a significant challenge to contribute to achieving the growth target of the first quarter of this year.
Source: https://baophapluat.vn/nhieu-chi-so-kinh-te-tang-truong-tich-cuc-post541617.html
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