Remilitarization of the border
North Korea's Defense Ministry said yesterday that it will never be bound by the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) between the two Koreas, and said it will immediately restore military measures and deploy new, more powerful weapons and forces along the Military Demarcation Line between the two Koreas. Pyongyang accused Seoul of "irresponsible and grave political and military provocations" that have pushed the situation to an "uncontrollable" stage.
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According to Yonhap News Agency, the CMA was signed in September 2018 under the administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in (2017 - 2022), under which the two sides established a buffer zone and a no-fly zone along the inter-Korean border to prevent accidental clashes. South Korea partially suspended this agreement and restored surveillance activities near the border after North Korea launched a new Chollima-1 rocket, sending a Malligyong-1 military reconnaissance satellite into orbit on the evening of November 21. This action was condemned by Seoul and its allies as a violation of the UN Security Council resolution prohibiting Pyongyang from using technology that can be applied to its ballistic missile program.
A satellite-carrying rocket is about to be launched in North Gyeongsang Province (North Korea) on November 21.
North Korea said the satellite launch was a "legitimate" self-defense measure to monitor activity in the region. It criticized South Korea's response as "unreasonable" and warned that Seoul would take full responsibility in the event of an irreversible conflict between the two Koreas. Late on November 22, North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea, but the South Korean military said the launch had failed.
Risk of conflict
Yonhap quoted a South Korean Unification Ministry official as saying yesterday that despite North Korea's statement, the South Korean government does not consider the agreement to be abrogated and is open to dialogue to find ways to reduce military tensions. Former CIA analyst Bruce Klingner, now at the Heritage Foundation, a prominent US think tank, told Reuters that the CMA is theoretically a tool to reduce risks and build trust and security that benefits the two Koreas. However, due to the lack of follow-up measures, the agreement has hindered military monitoring and training activities by South Korea and its allies, while failing to reduce the military threat from North Korea.
The Chollima-1 rocket carrying the Malligyong-1 spy satellite was launched on November 21.
North Korea has repeatedly violated the agreement, including 15 times last year, according to South Korea's Ministry of National Defense. Still, Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University in South Korea and a former special presidential adviser during the inter-Korean dialogue, said the collapse of the agreement could increase the risk of confrontation along the demarcation line. "Accidental encounters could escalate into full-scale conflict, including nuclear strikes," Moon warned. Similarly, Hong Min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said that if conflict broke out, North Korea could demonstrate its military might with both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said Russia helped North Korea launch a satellite on November 21. The accusation was made during a closed-door parliamentary meeting on November 23 and was made by Yoo Sang-bum, a lawmaker from the ruling PPP. Yoo said South Korea had intelligence that North Korea provided blueprints and data from two previous failed launches to Russia for analysis. North Korea and Russia did not immediately comment.
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