According to the survey results, the rate of credit institutions assessing that customers' loan demand in the first quarter of 2024 is "improved" is lower than the assessment and expectation in the previous survey.
At the end of the first quarter of 2024, credit institutions continue to assess that the demand for loans from businesses is higher than the demand for loans from individual customers and other credit institutions. Demand for deposits, payment services and cards is assessed to continue to "improve" at a low level in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter but is still higher than the demand for loans in the same period.
Credit institutions forecast that customers' demand for banking services may "improve" in the second quarter of 2024 and throughout 2024 due to expectations of positive economic developments, gradual recovery of the manufacturing and export sectors, in which demand for loans is expected to "improve" more than demand for deposits and payments.
The liquidity of the banking system in the first quarter of 2024 continued to maintain a “good” status, improving more positively than expected. Credit institutions forecast that the liquidity situation will continue to be abundant and improve in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024 compared to 2023.
Regarding interest rates, credit institutions forecast that the deposit interest rate and lending interest rate in the second quarter of 2024 and 2024 will continue to be low and will not change significantly compared to the previous period. Capital mobilization of the entire credit institution system is expected to increase by an average of 3.5% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 9.9% in 2024, lower than the expected 12% recorded in the previous survey.
Regarding credit growth, credit institutions expect the total outstanding credit balance of the whole system to increase by an average of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2024 and increase by 13.6% in 2024, down 0.6 percentage points compared to the forecast of 14.2% in the previous survey.
In addition, credit institutions expect bad debt to decrease in the second quarter of 2024, even though the bad debt/credit balance ratio has not yet achieved the expected "slight decrease" trend at the end of 2023 and in the first quarter of 2024, there continues to be a "slight increase". However, this trend is considered to have narrowed significantly compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to the survey results, the overall business situation and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the first quarter of 2024 have not been as assessed and expected by credit institutions in the previous survey. Credit institutions expect the business situation to be more positive in the second quarter of 2024 but are still cautious when 70.9-72.7% of credit institutions expect the business situation to improve in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024.
Credit institutions also expect pre-tax profits to recover from the second quarter of 2024, with 57.3% of credit institutions expecting pre-tax profits to grow compared to the first quarter of 2024, 30.9% of credit institutions expecting “unchanged” profits and 11.8% of credit institutions concerned about declining business performance. In 2024, 86.2% of credit institutions expect pre-tax profits to grow positively compared to 2023; 10.1% of credit institutions are concerned about negative profit growth in 2024 and 3.7% estimate profits to remain unchanged.
Also in this survey, credit institutions assessed that “credit policy, interest rates and exchange rates of the State Bank of Vietnam” continued to be the most important objective factor helping to improve the business situation of credit institutions in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024, followed by “business and financial conditions of customers” and “demand of the economy for the unit’s products and services”. In addition, “competition from other credit institutions” continued to be assessed as the most important factor negatively affecting the decline in the business situation of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2024 and expected for the whole year of 2024.
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