Reasons why CPI in October 2023 increased by 3.2% compared to the same period in 2022

In the 0.08% increase in CPI in October 2023 compared to the previous month, there were 9 groups of goods and services with increased price indexes and 2 groups of goods with decreased price indexes.

Giá gạo Việt giảm. (Nguồn: Tạp chí Tài chính)

CPI in October 2023 increased by 0.08% compared to the previous month, partly due to the increase in domestic rice prices following the increase in export rice prices. (Source: Shutterstock)

According to data released by the General Statistics Office on the morning of October 29, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October 2023 increased by 0.08% compared to the previous month due to some localities increasing tuition fees and domestic rice prices increasing following export rice prices.

Compared to December 2022, the CPI in October 2023 increased by 3.2% and compared to the same period last year increased by 3.59%. On average, in the first 10 months of 2023, the CPI increased by 3.2% compared to the same period last year; core inflation increased by 4.38%.

According to the General Statistics Office, in the 0.08% increase in CPI in October 2023 compared to the previous month, there were 9 groups of goods and services with increased price indexes and 2 groups of goods with decreased price indexes.

Specifically, 9 groups of goods and services had price index increases, including: the education group had the highest increase of 2.25% (making the general CPI increase by 0.14 percentage points); in which the price of educational services increased by 2.54% due to some localities increasing tuition fees for preschool and general education institutions in the area.

The housing and construction materials group increased by 0.27% (making the overall CPI increase by 0.05 percentage points) due to a 4.72% increase in gas prices; a 0.48% increase in tap water prices; and a 0.29% increase in home repair service prices.

On the other hand, the price of housing maintenance materials decreased by 0.09% due to a decrease in steel prices; the price of household electricity decreased by 0.79% due to a decrease in consumer demand during the rainy season and cool weather; the price of kerosene decreased by 0.58% mainly due to the impact of price adjustments on October 2, 2023, October 11, 2023 and October 23, 2023.

The group of other goods and services increased by 0.21%, mainly focusing on body care products up 0.22%; jewelry up 0.64%; watches up 0.53%; hair cutting and shampooing services up 0.49%...

The beverage and tobacco group increased by 0.15% due to the increase in raw material prices for beverage production and the USD exchange rate. Specifically, the price of alcohol and beer increased by 0.2%; fruit juice increased by 0.17%; carbonated soft drinks increased by 0.05% and cigarettes increased by 0.04%.

The food and catering services group increased by 0.06%; of which, food increased by 0.9%; food decreased by 0.14%; eating out increased by 0.21%. The group of household equipment and utensils increased by 0.03%, mainly concentrated in items such as: prices of motorized household equipment increased by 0.38%; voltage stabilizers increased by 0.13%; blenders, fruit juicers increased by 0.55%...

On the contrary, the price index of 2 groups of goods and services decreased, including: the post and telecommunications group decreased by 0.11%, mainly in the telephone equipment group (down 0.31%). The transportation group decreased by 1.51% (causing the overall CPI to decrease by 0.15 percentage points).

The main reason is that gasoline prices decreased by 4.59%; diesel prices decreased by 0.73% due to the impact of domestic gasoline price adjustments on October 2, 2023, October 11, 2023 and October 23, 2023; prices of new cars, motorbikes and used cars decreased by 0.12%; 0.02% and 0.11%, respectively.

Also in October, domestic gold prices fluctuated in the opposite direction to world gold prices. As of October 25, 2023, the average world gold price was at 1,909.36 USD/ounce, down 2.11% compared to September 2023 due to the trend of the USD exchange rate and US Treasury bond yields increasing when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its stance of keeping interest rates high to pull inflation back to 2%.

Domestically, the gold price index in October 2023 increased by 0.92% over the previous month; increased by 5.87% over December 2022; increased by 8.28% over the same period last year; the average for the first 10 months of 2023 increased by 2.81%.

Worldwide, the price of the USD tends to increase as many signs show that the US economy is standing firm against interest rate hikes as part of the Fed's campaign to curb inflation.

In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led investors to seek the USD as a safe haven. As of October 25, 2023, the USD index on the international market reached 106.02 points, up 1.35% compared to the previous month.

Domestically, the average USD price in the free market is around 24,582 VND/USD. The greenback index in October 2023 increased by 1.2% compared to the previous month; increased by 1.56% compared to December 2022; increased by 1.79% compared to the same period last year; the average increase in the first 10 months of 2023 was 2.24%.

The General Statistics Office also pointed out that core inflation in October 2023 increased by 0.09% compared to the previous month, up 3.43% over the same period last year. On average, core inflation in the first 10 months of 2023 increased by 4.38% over the same period in 2022, higher than the average CPI increase (up 3.2%).

The main reason is that the average domestic gasoline price in the first 10 months of 2023 decreased by 13.24% compared to the same period last year, the gas price decreased by 8.55%, which is a factor that restrains the CPI growth rate but belongs to the group of goods excluded from the list of basic inflation calculations.

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