Will "black gold" continue to increase in price?

Pepper prices today (September 30) are trading at 147,500 - 149,000 VND/kg, recording stability with slight fluctuations in some regions. The world market also witnessed a slight increase in black and white pepper prices in Indonesia due to the impact of drought in Brazil.

Pepper price today (September 30) fluctuates at 147,500 - 149,000 VND/kg. Screenshot

So, where will pepper prices go tomorrow (October 1)? Will “black gold” continue to increase in price or will there be signs of slowing down? To answer this question, we need to analyze the factors affecting pepper prices in the coming time.

Severe drought in Brazil, which supplies more than half of the world's black pepper, has severely affected this year's harvest. This has reduced the supply of black pepper in the global market, pushing up pepper prices. In addition, Vietnam's processed pepper exports increased by more than 50% compared to 2023, demonstrating that the demand for pepper in the international market remains very high. Prices of black and white pepper in Indonesia increased slightly, creating momentum for Vietnamese pepper prices to continue to increase. These are factors that create upward pressure on the domestic pepper market.

However, pepper prices are also facing some downward pressure. The coffee harvest is expected to begin in October, which usually involves intermediaries liquidating pepper to trade coffee. However, experts say that this year, with lower inventories and the coffee harvest delayed until November, the liquidation of pepper stocks could be significantly reduced. In addition, pepper output in the 2025 crop is forecast to increase slightly, although the increase is not significant, but this is still a factor that can affect pepper prices in the long term. According to Nedspice, pepper exports in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be affected by the sale of inventories from previous years, along with the import of new pepper.

Pepper prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 may be under pressure when coffee enters the harvest season.

Based on the above analysis, it can be seen that pepper prices tomorrow (October 1) will continue to be under slight upward pressure, but the possibility of strong fluctuations is not high. Ms. Hoang Thi Lien - President of VPSA - commented that in the next 3-5 years, global pepper output will still not be enough to meet consumer demand. Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh - Permanent Vice President of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai province) - commented that pepper prices are entering a new price increase cycle after many years of "lying at rock bottom", and may peak at 350,000-400,000 VND/kg in the next 10-15 years. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that world pepper prices will remain high in the short term due to limited supply.

In general, pepper prices tomorrow (October 1) may fluctuate slightly, possibly increasing slightly or remaining stable compared to today. However, in the long term, pepper prices will depend on many factors, of which supply, demand and the global economic situation are the decisive factors. Therefore, consumers and investors need to closely monitor the market and update information regularly to make prudent investment decisions.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-mai-1102024-lieu-vang-den-co-tiep-tuc-tang-gia-349371.html