The most likely scenario for real estate

TPO – Experts believe that in the period 2025 – 2030, the real estate market will be vibrant in all segments but will not explode to extremes. This is the most likely scenario.

At the workshop “Cash flow into Southern real estate: Identifying investment opportunities” on the morning of October 31, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung – former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, Ministry of Planning and Investment – ​​analyzed that the Vietnamese real estate market has gone through 4 + 1 cycles and the market is starting the 4th cycle.

3 scenarios in the new phase

Through research, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Tran Kim Chung found that every time the National Assembly passes the Land Law, the real estate market recovers and develops strongly about 3-4 years later.

Mr. Chung cited examples such as the years 1993, 2003 and 2013, when the National Assembly passed the Land Law, and in the period immediately following (1994 - 1997, 2004 - 2007 and 2014 - 2017), the real estate market recovered very strongly in both liquidity and buying and selling prices of all types of real estate, from apartments, land, villas, townhouses, to old apartments, land subject to site clearance...

According to Mr. Chung, this cyclical rule does not follow a certain formula. Specifically, the real estate market is sluggish when supply is always ready, while demand is extremely large, but the two sides do not meet. When the Land Law was promulgated, it helped supply and demand meet, although it did not take effect immediately, it will certainly have an effect.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Kim Chung - former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management.

The Land Law was issued when the market was sluggish, when supply and demand were waiting to meet like a “compressed spring”. Therefore, when resolved, the problem will bounce back very quickly.

However, in the upcoming period of 2025 - 2030, Mr. Chung believes that there is still a possibility of 1 of 3 scenarios occurring. Specifically:

Neutral scenario , the market will be vibrant across all segments but without extreme outbreaks. This is the most likely scenario.

Unfavorable scenario , market segmentation, some segments are quiet. This is the least likely scenario.

Positive scenario , the market explodes, developing strongly in all segments. This scenario can happen, but not much. Although there is recovery, there are still many challenges for the real estate market.

“To synchronize institutions, it is necessary to soon issue guiding documents for the Laws: Land, Housing, Real Estate Business, and Credit Institutions. In addition, the real estate market in general needs to mobilize development resources and develop derivative financial instruments for the real estate market,” Mr. Chung emphasized.

The expert added that if the market is to develop, management agencies must improve processes and procedures related to planning and land use. The issuance of new documents, especially new contents, is always accompanied by the issuance of new processes. Land allocation and land lease associated with land use conversion are mainly through bidding, requiring ready planning and land use plans.

The market has a very good chance of recovery.

Economist Dinh Trong Thinh said that at present, the real estate market has a very good chance of recovery, so investing in real estate in any area requires considering many factors.

Specifically, in the North, it is necessary to consider studying the supply and demand factors when the Northern market has had a relatively high price increase since the beginning of the year. Accordingly, investors need to consider the demand and factors affecting the market, and balance when the price factor increases sharply.

Meanwhile, the southern region such as Ho Chi Minh City and the provinces in the Ho Chi Minh City area such as Binh Duong, Long An, Dong Nai ... are having great opportunities for investors. The localities in the southern region with the determination to develop the economy - society in the coming period will decide and have a great impact on the development of residential real estate, industrial real estate in the South. With the above factors, the opportunity to invest in real estate in the South such as Binh Duong or the provinces neighboring Ho Chi Minh City is very large.

Giving advice to investors on which real estate market to invest in to catch the recovery wave, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Real Estate Brokerage Association - said: "There is almost no difference between the two markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in terms of trading activities, institutions, planning, and demand. However, in the Hanoi market, in addition to housing demand, investment demand is also very large, the investment nature of the Hanoi market is quite strong. In the Ho Chi Minh City area and surrounding areas, housing demand is more dominant."

Ngoc Mai

Source: https://tienphong.vn/kich-ban-co-nhieu-kha-nang-xay-ra-nhat-voi-bat-dong-san-post1687241.tpo