What will soybean prices be like in 2025?

Currently, the world soybean market is unpredictable due to the move to increase stockpiling by the largest consuming country - China.

In the short term, this is positive, but in the longer term, developments in trade tensions and abundant supplies from Brazil and the US could continue to put pressure on soybean prices...

China rushes to stockpile soybeans

According to Chinese customs data, the country imported 8.09 million tons of soybeans in October, the highest level in the past four years and up 56% compared to the same period last year. This sudden growth figure largely stems from concerns about changes in US trade policy as Donald Trump prepares to take office early next year. In order to ensure supply security, importers in China have rushed to stockpile to deal with possible instability. Of which, Brazil and the US are the two largest sources of soybean imports to China.

In October, the country imported 5.53 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, up 15% year-on-year. Soybean imports from the US also more than doubled compared to the same period in 2023 to 541,434 tons, marking the seventh consecutive month of import growth. As of the end of October, total soybean imports from Brazil reached 67.8 million tons, up 13.6% year-on-year. In contrast, imports from the US decreased to only 15.1 million tons, down 13% year-on-year.

China's monthly soybean imports

Besides concerns about changes in US trade policy, China's soybean stockpiling sentiment also stems from the need to take advantage of large supplies from abundant crops in the US and Brazil.

In addition, China is facing oversupply in its domestic soybean market. According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), China’s pork production is forecast to decline by 2% in 2025 to 55.5 million tons due to the impact of reduced sow stocks and declining consumption due to economic instability. This shows that the outlook for real soybean demand in China is showing signs of decline.

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV)

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), said that China's increased soybean imports are not only a positive signal for the short-term market, but also reflect a defensive mentality in the face of potential trade uncertainties between the US and China. However, this move does not mean that demand is actually growing, but is mainly a strategic stockpiling plan to prepare for a period of prolonged instability.

Soybean Price Forecast: What's Next?

As China increases its imports, the question is whether this demand will be sustained in the long term. Looking at the current situation, it is possible to predict that demand will level off in early 2025 when China has finished stockpiling. This will reduce demand in the market while global supply remains high thanks to favorable harvests in the US and Brazil.

However, a key factor influencing soybean prices is the US-China trade relationship. If Donald Trump carries out the tough trade measures he announced during his campaign, imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, trade tensions will escalate. China could retaliate by imposing tariffs on US imports, including soybeans. This scenario could severely impact US export sales, while also creating opportunities for Brazil and Argentina to increase their market share in China. If these South American countries expand their cultivation areas to meet demand, the global supply structure could change in a way that is unfavorable to the US.

Soybean production in the US, Brazil and Argentina

Another scenario is that Mr Trump could take a more cautious approach, focusing on resolving other conflicts such as the Black Sea and the Middle East before targeting China. In this case, bilateral trade would be less negatively impacted, keeping soybean prices from coming under too much downward pressure.

In any case, with ample global supplies and a positive crop outlook in Brazil due to favorable weather conditions, soybean prices are likely to remain under pressure next year. Even if trade tensions between the US and China do not escalate, large supplies from South American countries could keep prices low. For US investors and farmers, it will be a challenging year as current Chinese demand is unlikely to save soybean prices from falling.

CBOT Soybean Price Movement

“Although demand from China has provided a short-term boost to soybean prices, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. With supplies from Brazil and Argentina continuing to grow and the possibility of further escalation of US-China trade tensions, soybean prices may find it difficult to recover strongly. Only when the market experiences unexpected weather changes or agricultural support policies from exporting countries can hope for a new price increase,” said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-dau-tuong-nam-2025-se-dien-bien-ra-sao-360069-360069.html