Arabica coffee prices hit new high as they approach $7,400/ton

Arabica coffee prices increased by 1.23%, continuing to anchor at a 47-year high and at one point during the session touching a historical high of nearly 7,400 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), green dominated the world raw material price list in yesterday's trading session (December 10). At the close, the MXV-Index increased by 0.39% to 2,221 points. Notably, in the industrial raw material market, the price of Arabica coffee continued to conquer a historical record when approaching the 7,400 USD mark. In addition, the agricultural product market also had 5 out of 7 commodities simultaneously increasing in price, of which corn recorded its fourth consecutive increase.

Thị trường hàng hóa hôm nay 11/12: Giá cà phê Arabica tiếp tục leo đỉnh

MXV-Index

Arabica coffee prices hit new peak

Closing yesterday's trading session, the price list of industrial raw materials witnessed a division between green and red. Notably, the prices of two coffee products fluctuated strongly, improving compared to the reference level.

Arabica coffee prices rose 1.23%, remaining at a 47-year high and at one point in the session hitting an all-time high of nearly $7,400 per ton. Robusta coffee prices recorded their fifth consecutive increase after inching up 0.62% yesterday. Concerns about supply in Brazil kept prices rising despite profit-taking pressure.

Industrial raw material price list

Volcafe has lowered its forecast for Brazil's 2025-26 Arabica coffee production to 34.4 million bags, down about 11 million bags from its September estimate, after field surveys revealed the severity of the prolonged drought. At the same time, Volcafe forecasts a global Arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025-26, higher than the 5.5 million bag deficit in 2024-25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficit.

Concerns about Brazil’s 2025-26 coffee supply outlook continue to mount as rainfall remains below historical averages. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee-growing state, received just 60.9 mm of rain last week, or 91% of the historical average.

However, Brazil and other major producing countries continue to boost coffee exports after the 2024-2025 harvest, contributing to supplementing short-term market supply and putting pressure on prices. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE) announced in November that the South American country exported 4.66 million 60-kg bags of coffee, up 5.4% over the same month in 2023. In the first 11 months of 2024, Brazil's coffee exports reached a record of nearly 46.4 million bags, up 3.78% from the highest level recorded in 2020 and up 32.2% over the same period in 2023. Previously, the Brazilian government announced that in November, the country exported more than 285,000 tons of green coffee, up 21.6% over the same period in 2023.

In addition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year to reach 30.1 million 60-kg bags, up 1.1 million bags from the US-based USDA's forecast and 2.6 million bags higher than the 2023-2024 crop year. The increased output will result in an expected export of 26.9 million bags, up 380,000 bags from the USDA's initial forecast and 2.52 million bags higher than the 2023-2024 crop year.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and the Southeast this morning (December 11) fluctuated around 124,200 - 124,700 VND/kg, an increase of 700 - 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have now doubled.

Corn prices rise for fourth straight session after WASDE report

According to MXV, corn prices increased by more than 1.6% in yesterday's session, extending the streak of gains for the fourth consecutive session. The market was supported by positive figures from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) for December.

Agricultural product price list

This month’s report focused on domestic demand for corn. The USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by 50 million bushels from the previous report to 5.5 billion bushels. Exports were also revised up by 150 million bushels due to recent positive demand. This resulted in a 200 million bushel drop in U.S. ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year from the previous report to 1.74 billion bushels, below the market’s forecast range and the 1.76 billion bushels from the previous marketing year.

As for world figures, corn stocks also fell sharply to 296 million tonnes, compared to 304 million tonnes in November and much lower than the 316.2 million tonnes for the 2023-2024 crop year. This figure was surprisingly below analysts' forecasts, helping to explain the spike in prices following the report.

Similar to the general trend of most commodities, soybean prices also recorded a slight increase in yesterday's session. Unlike corn, the buying force for the market did not come from the WASDE report but mainly from the positive demand outlook from China.

USDA made no major changes to soybeans in its report. The agency kept its forecast for U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 470 million bushels, with supply and demand figures unchanged from last month’s report. Globally, 2024-25 ending stocks were revised up slightly to 131.87 million tons, up from 131.74 million tons in November. Argentina’s soybean production forecast was raised to 52 million tons, while Brazil’s remained unchanged at 169 million tons.

On the demand side, the positive import outlook from China remains a notable factor. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 7.15 million tons of soybeans in November, lower than expected due to lower shipments from Brazil. However, experts said that the country's imports for the whole year are still expected to exceed last year's record as imports may increase sharply in December. This is a factor that helped buyers dominate the market yesterday.

In the domestic market, on December 10, the offer price of South American soybean meal to Vietnamese ports decreased slightly. At Vung Tau port, the offer price of soybean meal for delivery in January 2025 was VND 10,550/kg, while the offer price for delivery in February 2025 fluctuated around VND 10,400 - 10,550/kg. At Cai Lan port, the offer price was about VND 100 - 150/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods