Economic growth in the second quarter is estimated at 4.14%, just higher than the same period in 2020 - the lowest level of the 13-year period due to the appearance of Covid-19.
This morning, the General Statistics Office held a press conference on the economic situation in the first half of the year. Accordingly, GDP in the second quarter is estimated to increase by 4.14% over the same period last year. Considering the period 2011-2023, this result is only 0.34% higher than the growth rate of the second quarter of 2020, the period when the Covid-19 pandemic was complicated. In the first 6 months of the year, GDP increased by 3.72%.
The economy is currently supported by the service sector. Thanks to policies to stimulate domestic consumption and tourism promotion activities, the growth of this sector has been maintained. The added value of the service sector in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 6.33% over the same period last year, higher than the increase of 1.18% and 4.53% in the same period in 2020 and 2021.
The remaining industrial and construction sectors, the industry sector, faced many difficulties in the general context of the world economy. The added value of the entire sector in the past 6 months increased by 0.44% compared to the same period last year - the lowest increase in the same period if considering the entire period 2011-2023.
In the first 6 months of 2023, Vietnam is estimated to have a trade surplus of 12.25 billion USD with a total trade turnover of 316.65 billion USD, but both exports and imports decreased sharply by 12-15% compared to the same period last year.
Mr. Nguyen Viet Phong, Director of the Department of Trade and Service Statistics, said that the decrease in Vietnam's import and export turnover is part of a general trend when global demand declines. Data shows that by April 2023, 13 out of 16 countries with large trade scale globally decreased exports, and 12 out of 16 countries decreased imports.
"Vietnam has seen a decline in imports and exports for two consecutive quarters, with the second quarter being stronger than the first," he said. The decline in imports of goods such as machinery, equipment, and raw materials also shows that domestic production demand is showing negative signs.
However, he assessed that the total import-export turnover of more than 316 billion USD in the first 6 months still showed some positive signs, equivalent to the scale of 2021.
"In the context of a general economic downturn, Vietnam's trade balance is still positive with a trade surplus of 12.25 billion USD, contributing to economic growth," he said. In the future, according to the General Statistics Office, imports and exports may face many adverse impacts when global demand has not recovered and geopolitical conflicts are unpredictable.
In the first half of the year, 113,600 new businesses were established and returned to the market, an average of 19,000 units per month. Meanwhile, about 100,000 businesses withdrew, an average of 16,600 units, down from the average of the first 5 months and 4 months of the year.
The survey results on business trends of the processing and manufacturing industry group in the second quarter also showed that the number of optimistic enterprises increased compared to the first quarter. The number of enterprises assessing better business trends in the third quarter is also expected to increase.
The consumer price index (CPI) in June increased by 0.27% compared to the previous month and 2% compared to the same period last year due to increased food prices and electricity costs due to prolonged heat and adjustments to the average retail electricity price. On average, the CPI in the first 6 months of the year increased by 3.29% compared to the same period last year. Core inflation increased by 4.74%, higher than the average CPI.
Duc Minh - Tat Dat
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