EU sanctions on Russia: How much is enough?

Since the Kremlin launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February last year, the European Union (EU) has imposed unprecedented and broad sanctions on Russia, including targeted restrictive measures (personal sanctions), economic sanctions and visa measures.

To date, 11 packages of sanctions against Russia have been issued and implemented, with nearly 1,800 individuals and organizations on the "blacklist", while the 12th package of sanctions was just announced by the European Commission (EC) on November 15.

The EU's aim in imposing economic sanctions is to make Russia pay a high price for the war in Ukraine, while limiting the financial resources pouring into the Kremlin's "war coffers".

According to the official website of the European Council, as of October 12, 2023, 21.5 billion euros of Russian assets were frozen in the EU, 300 billion euros of assets from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) were frozen in the EU and G7 countries, 43.9 billion euros worth of exports to Russia were sanctioned, and 91.2 billion euros of imports from Russia were blocked from entering the EU.

The EU has joined forces with the Price Ceiling Coalition, which includes the G7 and Australia, to cap prices on seaborne crude oil, petroleum products and oils obtained from bituminous minerals originating in or exported from Russia.

Add a sanctions package

The main focus of the new round of restrictions proposed by the EC last week is to further crack down on the Kremlin’s ability to circumvent sanctions, particularly targeting the “shadow fleet” of Russian oil tankers that do not comply with price caps.

The proposal, being discussed at EU ministerial level, includes a ban on the sale of oil tankers to Russia and a requirement that third countries buying ships include a clause that the ships cannot be resold to Russia or used to transport Russian-origin oil priced above a ceiling.

EU officials have been evasive about the reasons for delaying the latest EU sanctions package against Russia, despite a public announcement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kiev two weeks earlier.

World - EU sanctions against Russia: How much is enough? — Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin are among 1,800 individuals sanctioned by the EU over the war in Ukraine. The EC plans to target another 120 individuals and entities in its 12th package of anti-Russia sanctions. Photo: TASS

The 12th package of sanctions also includes Russian diamonds, after the EU overcame objections from Belgium, home to the diamond capital Antwerp. The ban targets imports of Russian natural and non-industrial synthetic diamonds as well as diamond jewelry of Russian origin from the start of 2024.

Import, sale and transfer of diamonds in transit through Russia and Russian diamonds cut and polished in third countries, such as India, will also be banned, but will be implemented in stages.

“The gradual introduction of these indirect import bans is aimed at implementing an appropriate traceability mechanism that allows for effective enforcement measures and minimizes disruption for market participants,” the proposal document seen by Euractiv says.

The new sanctions package also targets exports of machine tools and machine parts that Russia uses to produce weapons and ammunition.

In addition, the EU also plans to impose economic sanctions on third countries if they do not comply with Western sanctions or cannot explain a sudden increase in the trade of "banned goods".

Moving from enforcement to compliance

But behind this new package of sanctions, an important question arises: How much is enough when there are still things related to Russia that the EU cannot touch?

The arduous journey to hammer out a proposal for a new sanctions package, which began to be discussed by EU ambassadors on 17 November, shows that the impact of sanctions in Brussels is slowing.

Despite pressure from “hawkish” member states – such as Lithuania and Poland – to sanction Russia, it is increasingly unlikely that other member states will vote for maximalist sanctions proposals, which would include Russia’s nuclear sector, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), liquefied natural gas (LNG) and steel.

World - EU sanctions against Russia: How much is enough? (Figure 2). — Workers inspect fuel assemblies of a VVER-100 water-cooled and moderated reactor at Russia's Novosbirsk chemical concentrator plant. Photo: TASS

Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar said on November 18 that the condition for the country that shares an eastern border with Ukraine not to veto the latest sanctions package is that it must not include restrictions on nuclear fuel imports from Russia, calling it a “red line” for Bratislava.

EU officials and diplomats also question whether labeling future measures as “sanctions packages” will make sense in the long term. But ultimately, the most “headache” is still the effectiveness of such restrictions.

Indeed, Blanar on November 18 also raised doubts about the effectiveness of the entire sanctions policy pursued by the EU since the start of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. “The 11 packages of sanctions have not deterred Russia, while the EU economy is heading towards recession,” the top Slovakian diplomat said.

It is also becoming increasingly common for countries and businesses to circumvent Western sanctions against Russia.

EU envoy David O'Sullivan was appointed to ensure European sanctions were enforced, but although the official has been making the rounds in third countries, he lacks the leverage to persuade them to comply with the bloc's policies.

EU sanctions experts are pointing to the need to move from enforcement to compliance with sanctions .

Minh Duc (According to Euractiv, RT, European Council website)

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