Unexpected forecast about gasoline price on January 16

(Dan Tri) - Gasoline prices at the adjustment date of January 16 are forecast to continue to increase, by about 200-550 VND/liter.

According to plan, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance will adjust retail gasoline prices periodically tomorrow (January 16).

The leader of a major petroleum distribution enterprise in the South said that after the previous adjustment period, crude oil prices tended to decrease but have recently increased again.

On January 14, the price of imported gasoline in the Singapore market was at 88.44 USD/barrel for RON 95 gasoline, an increase of nearly 3 USD/barrel compared to 7 days ago; RON 92 gasoline was at 86.3 USD/barrel, an increase of more than 3 USD/barrel. Therefore, it is likely that domestic gasoline prices will continue to increase in tomorrow's adjustment period.

Specifically, gasoline prices are expected to increase by about 200-350 VND/liter, diesel may increase more strongly by about 450-550 VND/liter. In case the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance jointly spend the Price Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices may increase less.

In addition, the owner of a petroleum distribution company in the North also predicted that petroleum prices will continue to increase in the operating period tomorrow. The gasoline discount on January 15 at many warehouses is at a low level of about 600-800 VND/liter.

If forecasts are correct, domestic RON 95 gasoline prices will increase for three consecutive sessions after only one decrease. Currently, this fuel price is still at its lowest level in more than three years, equivalent to June 2021. Since the beginning of 2024, gasoline has increased 26 times and decreased 27 times. Diesel has increased 24 times and decreased 28 times.

The room for the petroleum price stabilization fund of some key enterprises still recorded a large positive level due to many operating periods without using the fund. The fund balance as of the end of the second quarter of 2024 was VND 6,061 billion, down VND 18 billion compared to the previous quarter and the fifth consecutive quarter of decrease. Compared to the end of 2023, the fund balance decreased by nearly VND 600 billion.

In the most recent adjustment period on January 9, the management agency decided to increase the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline by 380 VND/liter to 20,430 VND/liter; RON 95 gasoline increased by 270 VND/liter to 21,010 VND/liter. Similarly, diesel oil also increased by 490 VND/liter to 19,240 VND/liter; kerosene increased by 410 VND/liter to 19,240 VND/liter; and fuel oil also increased by 90 VND/kg to 16,180 VND/kg.

On the world market, at the end of the session on January 14, oil prices fell more than 1% after the US government agency forecast that the country's oil demand would be stable this year, while raising its supply forecast, according to Reuters .

Chinese and Indian refiners are looking for alternative fuel supplies to cope with new US sanctions on Russian producers and tankers, aimed at curbing revenues for the world’s second-largest oil exporter.

According to Trading Economics data, at 9:00 a.m. on January 15, WTI oil price was trading at 77.64 USD/barrel, up 1.31% compared to last week; similarly, Brent oil was also at 79.88 USD/barrel, up 0.17%.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/du-bao-bat-ngo-ve-gia-xang-ngay-161-20250115091127608.htm