What will happen to the price of live pigs?

Vietnam's live pig price is higher than China's

On June 12, the price of live pigs climbed to 71,000 VND/kg, the highest since the beginning of the year. In general, in June, the price of live pigs increased by about 3-5% compared to May 2024. On the last day of June (June 30), the price of live pigs in the Northern region fluctuated between 67,000 - 69,000 VND/kg; the price of live pigs in the Central - Central Highlands region fluctuated between 63,000 - 67,000 VND/kg; the price of live pigs in the Southern region fluctuated between 65,000 - 68,000 VND/kg. The average price of live pigs nationwide reached 65,700 VND/kg. Of which, the average price of live pigs in the Northern region was at the highest level (67,600 VND/kg).

The recent price movements of live pigs are considered quite unusual compared to market rules.

At businesses, the price of live pigs of CP in the North stood at 68,000 VND/kg; the price of live pigs of CP in the South stood at 67,000 VND/kg.

Meanwhile, the average price of live pigs in China is currently at 63,900 VND/kg, which means that the price of live pigs in Vietnam is higher than the price of live pigs in this market.

Along with the increase in live pig prices, according to data from the General Statistics Office, pork prices also increased by 3.78% when African swine fever occurred in many localities across the country.

The increase in live hog prices has caused the price of pork to increase to around 90,000 VND/kg. After a period of price stability, the price of pork has now been adjusted to increase by 10,000 - 20,000 VND/kg and is commonly from 100,000 - 130,000 VND/kg, depending on the type.

However, in contrast to the continuous increase/decrease in live pig prices, the pork market in traditional markets in Hanoi is quite gloomy. Summer vacation in many schools causes the closure of school kitchens, along with hot weather, making consumer demand for pork quite low.

Although there were some downward adjustments, looking at the overall picture of June 2024, the price of live pigs fluctuated mainly in an upward trend. The recent fluctuations in the price of live pigs are considered to be in line with market rules.

“After a long period of time, the price of live pigs dropped sharply to around 52,000 - 53,000 VND/kg, causing many farmers to fall into a difficult situation and make no profit. Up to now, the price of live pigs has increased to 65,000 - 69,000 VND/kg, which is a reasonable level for farmers to make a profit,” said Mr. Nguyen Xuan Duong - Chairman of the Vietnam Livestock Association, adding that the price of live pigs fluctuated strongly due to unstable farming scale, planning and complicated disease developments... causing a decrease in total supply.

According to Mr. Pham Kim Dang - Deputy Director of the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), the reason for the high price of live pigs is due to a sharp decrease in supply because in the past, the price of live pigs was low, causing farmers to reduce investment in herd restoration.

After a long period of gloom, pig prices have been increasing continuously in recent months, making pig farmers very excited. Currently, pig prices are high, ranging from 67,000 - 70,000 VND/kg, the highest price in the past 4 years, while animal feed prices have decreased, helping pig farmers make big profits.

Accordingly, with this price, farmers can earn a profit of about 800,000 - 1,000,000 VND/head when selling pigs. From this optimistic signal, many farmers in the province will promote pig herd restoration and livestock recovery.

Mr. Le Huu Toan - Director of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Kien Giang province - said that as of the end of May 2024, the province's total pig herd was about 214,000, an increase of nearly 11% over the same period in 2023 and equal to 55% of the 2024 livestock plan.

According to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the first 6 months of 2024, pig and poultry farming developed well, and diseases were controlled. The pig herd tends to increase strongly again due to the strong shift of household farming to semi-industrial farming, linking with businesses; farm farming in a chain combining bio-safety, disease safety and application of advanced technology, pork prices are high.

Pig prices are moving contrary to the general rule.

The price of live pigs began to fluctuate from the end of May with a steady increase and has now established a new price level as it is today. Mr. Nguyen Kim Doan - Vice President of Dong Nai Livestock Association - commented that this is a rather unusual price increase compared to market rules.

Because in the summer, the market demand is less active than other times of the year, leading to the price of live pigs often fluctuating less and often staying low. However, this year, the price of live pigs has continuously increased and remained high. Supply has decreased sharply, mainly due to small-scale farmers reducing their herds, even suspending their barns due to difficulties caused by low selling prices and widespread African swine fever. When the price of pigs is as high as it is now, most small-scale farmers do not benefit.

Entering early July 2024, the price of live pigs fluctuated in a downward direction, with some localities recording the lowest level of 61,000 VND/kg. Mr. Nguyen Kim Doan warned that the selling price of live pigs for farmers is at a good profit level, but the consumption market is disadvantageous, because the high price makes the market consumption even slower. The supply of pigs is decreasing compared to before, but this is only temporary and will soon stabilize in the near future. At present, farmers should carefully calculate in increasing and restoring the herd to avoid double risks of disease and selling price.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/dien-bien-nao-cho-gia-heo-hoi-329477.html