(Dan Tri) - Experts believe that for the land segment, this year the phenomenon of "land fever" will not occur widely but only locally.
Expert: Land market is slowing down
According to the report of the Ministry of Construction, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the number of transactions of apartments and individual houses reached more than 25,400 units, down 33.8% compared to the previous quarter. The number of successful land transactions reached 86,796 lots/plots, down 15.7% compared to the previous quarter.
In 2024, the number of successful transactions of apartments and individual houses was more than 125,500 units, down 11.2% compared to the same period. The number of land transactions in 2024 reached more than 412,400 lots/plots, up 33.6% compared to 2023.
In the past year, in addition to apartments, the land segment in the suburbs of Hanoi and some neighboring areas was assessed to have positive signals. However, in many places, the land segment is still facing difficulties or has slightly recovered.
Assessing the land segment in recent times, Mr. Le Dinh Chung - real estate expert - said that land has shown signs of recovery since April 2024, the transaction volume increased rapidly in May but fell into a slump in September. The reason is the general effect of the Hanoi market when liquidity is slow, prices decrease, and the provinces are also affected.
After the time when Hanoi land prices escalated at the end of 2024, many investors have now reduced their selling prices. The land market in Hanoi is stagnant. In provinces bordering Hanoi such as Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Hung Yen, Hai Duong, etc., there is no longer the phenomenon of selling at a loss, land prices have increased again since 2024.
In particular, land prices in Hung Yen recorded the strongest growth, Bac Giang also recovered to the price level compared to the peak in 2022. For the area from Thanh Hoa to the south, the market is still weak, the price is lower than the previous peak.
A plot of land in the suburbs of Hanoi (Photo: Duong Tam).
Talking about the investment potential of this segment in the coming time, Mr. Chung said that there are still many opportunities, but not just buying land in Hanoi will win for investors, but need to carefully choose the area with traffic infrastructure connection and population density.
Currently, many investors choose areas that have clear development orientations or have become towns or cities, so the basic price will fluctuate between 3-5 billion VND.
Many people cannot afford to buy any product at this price, so they choose to invest in the provinces in the suburbs. Some areas in the economic axes associated with industrial parks such as Bac Ninh, Bac Giang or Hung Yen, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Quang Ninh... are attracting many investors.
However, when buying land, investors need to pay attention to projects that meet legal conditions, at least sign a sales contract or have a red book, and at the same time need to consider the investor's capacity; choose locations that meet the needs and attract people to live there in the future.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Que - real estate expert - said that the prices of all real estate segments in Hanoi have peaked in October 2024. For apartments and land in Hanoi, the price has slowed down and liquidity has decreased. In addition, some land investors in the suburbs are looking for ways to "get rid of their goods".
"Land fever" will not occur widely this year?
Assessing the land segment this year, Mr. Le Dinh Chung stated that the phenomenon of "land fever" will not occur widely but only locally. For the above provinces, from Thanh Hoa to the south, the market has not been positive this year. As for provinces in tourist areas such as Da Nang and Nha Trang, this year there are more positive signs due to economic recovery leading to tourism growth.
Investors also began to look for areas with strong tourism development, especially Nha Trang and Da Nang, which have seen a more pronounced recovery in 2024.
In addition, with the change in land law, old projects with remaining inventory will receive great attention from buyers. Products priced under 3-4 billion VND will attract more customers. The reason why old projects are more attractive is that these projects were implemented before the new land price list took effect, so the land cost is lower. Meanwhile, projects implemented according to the new land price list will have their prices "increased".
"Although land plots will be bustling again, not all landowners will benefit. Customers' psychology has changed as they choose very carefully, from the investor's reputation, project legality, and product quality. In the past, investors could sell immediately after completing infrastructure, but now they have to add landscape and amenities to attract customers," he added.
Auctioned land in Hoai Duc district, Hanoi (Photo: Duong Tam).
Regarding auctioned land products, Mr. Chung predicted that the suburban districts of Hanoi will still receive the attention of investors this year. Because the housing supply in the Hanoi market in the short term has not shown signs of improvement compared to the actual needs of the people.
Moreover, with the current high prices in inner-city districts, investors tend to look for products in the suburbs. Investors' taste is still to "hunt" for subdivided land for sale, especially auctioned land organized by local authorities, because of its legal safety.
However, in the coming time, auctioned land in Hanoi or surrounding provinces will not be pushed up as suddenly as in the recent period, but the price increase will be more appropriate. Investors will be more alert, learn carefully before setting an acceptable price, not following the crowd psychology or being pushed by the effect of speculators.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - real estate expert - said that after the reversal and consolidation period, the market will move towards a period of recovery, expected to start from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of this year. At this time, investors will no longer place too much emphasis on selling price and legal factors like when the market was gloomy.
Instead, the potential for price increase is the key to deciding to invest. Profitable segments such as land and project villas are therefore given special attention by investors.
"In previous cycles, when the market moved to the development stage, for every 100 dong invested, apartments would only earn 136 dong. However, land would earn up to 300 dong," the expert said.
According to him, the 2024 Land Law takes effect, the land market has many major changes from supply to transaction activities. The land segment has developed in a more positive direction, reducing the situation of "land fever", virtual prices, and creating market waves. Instead, there is a new cycle with the land segment developing more stably, transparently and sustainably.
Finally, from Q1/2026 to Q4/2026, this will be the time when the market enters a stable orbit. Prices and liquidity will increase in various types. This can be considered the best prospect of the market, after a long period of stagnation.
Agreeing with the above opinions, Mr. Nguyen Anh Que stated that land will be a bright spot from 2025 to 2027, but will no longer occupy the "king" position as in the previous period.
"There are two reasons why land is no longer as hot as in 2022. First, in urban areas of type 3 or higher, construction must be completed before being sold, causing investment costs to increase. Second, the procedure for dividing land plots becomes more difficult. However, land plots will still be more attractive than other segments," he emphasized.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/chuyen-gia-nhan-dinh-bat-ngo-ve-phan-khuc-dat-nen-trong-nam-nay-20250211040430015.htm
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