In the last trading session of the week, July 12, VN-Index decreased slightly by more than 3 points but still maintained the 1,280 point mark. Trading volume and value remained low, showing that the cash flow in the market was not really strong. However, according to experts attending the stock talk show "Choosing stocks to catch the wave of second quarter business results" organized by Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper on the same afternoon, the market at the current point still has many opportunities when groups and types of stocks take turns breaking out.
Business profits improve
Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, Investment Consulting Director, Maybank Securities Company, said that many stock markets in the world such as the US, Japan... have continuously set historical peaks, bringing expectations to domestic investors that the VN-Index will soon surpass 1,300 points.
There are also many positive factors in the country such as: the economy in the second quarter and the first half of the year grew well; foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into the economy continued to be positive; international financial organizations also reported that the purchasing managers index (PMI) of Vietnam's manufacturing industries continuously remained above the 50-point mark. In particular, the exchange rate was controlled and the gold price cooled down, causing investors' interest and cash flow to tend to shift to other investment channels, including stocks.
Mr. Le Tu Quoc Hung, senior analyst, Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), said that the recent developments of the VN-Index have fully reflected the profit growth rate of listed companies in the first quarter of 2024. What investors are interested in at the moment is how the market will change in the following quarters?
"Our estimate is that the second quarter profits of listed companies on the HoSE will increase by about 13%, helping the P/E valuation of the VN-Index continue to decrease to an attractive level. This will be the basis for the VN-Index to surpass 1,300 points," said Mr. Hung.
In 2023, business operations will face many difficulties. Therefore, compared to the low profits of last year, investors will see very positive business results in the first and second quarters of 2024 of businesses. Mr. Truong Dac Nguyen, Head of Research Department, Financial Data Company Wigroup, analyzed that this year, investors will see businesses grow very well.
Like the steel industry, last year many companies suffered losses, but now the prices of many stocks in this industry have increased sharply, reflecting investors' expectations about the profits of steel companies in the second quarter and the second half of the year.
"Wigroup's research shows that the level of investment expansion by businesses and the many new projects put into operation and exploitation will create impressive business results in the coming quarters," said Mr. Nguyen.
Despite the positive signs, according to experts, the VN-Index still faces many obstacles. The USD index on the international market, although cooling down to 104 points, is still quite high and has not confirmed a downward trend. Therefore, the USD still puts pressure on other financial assets.
In addition, the current low market liquidity is also a factor that needs attention, especially the continuous net selling pressure from foreign investors since the beginning of the year is still very large. Although the proportion of foreign investors is not too large (the trading proportion is only about 5% -7%), it still affects the psychology of investors.
Experts discuss at the stock talk show organized by Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper on the afternoon of July 12. Photo: Tan Thanh
Stock selection
Sharing at the talk show of Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper, experts commented that the market could continue to be positive, hovering around the 1,300 point mark in the third quarter, but for each industry and each individual stock, the investment opportunities are huge. What investors need to do now is to select stocks, look for opportunities from "super stocks", not buy the whole market and do not need to pay too much attention to the fluctuations of the VN-Index.
Regarding each specific industry group, Mr. Le Tu Quoc Hung said that banking, securities, steel or wood export will be the industries with positive business results in the second quarter, as well as upcoming opportunities.
Mr. Phan Dung Khanh commented that buying stocks is an expectation for the future. There are many companies with poor business results but their stock prices are still increasing strongly, reflecting the expectations of investors. Technology stocks will continue to be promising in the context of the strong wave of artificial intelligence (AI) technology application. In addition, transportation stocks including aviation and shipping; green, clean and renewable energy stocks also have good prospects.
"Even the real estate stock group, although this market is facing difficulties, has good prospects because real estate prices have not increased much in the past two years compared to stocks, gold, and foreign exchange. A series of support policies and amended laws coming into effect will support the market, so real estate stocks also have potential," said Mr. Khanh.
According to statistics from Wigroup's analysis data, Mr. Truong Dac Nguyen said that securities, retail, and real estate in technology parks are industries with many prospects. In particular, FDI capital continues to flow strongly, public investment is accelerated, and businesses with good foundations will help industrial park real estate stocks flourish; factory rental prices in industrial parks also hit a peak.
How to deal with the 1,300 point mark?
According to experts, when investing, one should only look at the general market to see the trend and decide to disburse appropriately, reducing risks. Mr. Le Tu Quoc Hung advised investors to consider the prospects of each stock and should limit the use of financial leverage.
Mr. Truong Dac Nguyen said that the market still faces challenges when interest rates increase, exchange rates are still "hot", but stocks are a promising investment channel. Whether VN-Index can surpass the 1,300-point mark or not is not as important as looking at each company, there are still many opportunities to screen good stocks.
"The general market is for reference only, investors do not buy the index but buy stocks. The market has had many "super stocks" in the first half of the year from the technology, shipping, chemical groups... while the VN-Index fluctuates very slowly. Therefore, we must observe the trend of cash flow into which group; the business results of enterprises in the past are only for reference but we must pay attention to the future prospects" - Mr. Phan Dung Khanh said.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/chon-co-phieu-don-song-loi-nhuan-quy-ii-196240712204910639.htm
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