As a general rule, starting from September every year, Vietnamese airlines enter the low season that lasts until the end of December, with passenger transport output decreasing sharply.
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Low season comes early
According to the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam, the passenger transport volume of 6 Vietnamese airlines in September 2024 - the first month of this year's low season - is quite worrying.
Specifically, in September, the total passenger transport output of Vietnamese airlines only reached about 4.436 million; of which, domestic passenger transport output reached 2.89 million, international passenger transport output reached 1.546 million.
It should be added that, in the same period of 2023, the passenger transport output of Vietnamese airlines, although decreased by 7% compared to August 2023, still reached 5 million passengers, of which international passengers reached 1.55 million and domestic passengers reached 3.4 million.
Although these are only estimated figures from the state aviation management agency, the decline in passenger transport output has appeared since the beginning of August 2024.
By the end of August 2024, the total passenger transport volume of Vietnamese airlines will reach 5 million, down 3.8% compared to July 2024, of which international flights will reach 1.5 million, up 2.3% compared to July 2024; domestic flights will reach 3.4 million, down 6.3% compared to July 2024.
Even during the recent September 2 holiday, despite having 4 consecutive days off, the passenger transport volume of Vietnamese airlines only reached more than 531,000 (down 12% compared to the same period in 2023). Of which, international passenger transport reached more than 174,000, down 3.7%; domestic passenger transport reached 356,500, down 15.6% compared to the same period in 2023.
As a general rule, from September every year, airlines begin to enter the low season with passenger and cargo transport volumes both decreasing sharply before waiting for the market to increase again from Christmas to Lunar New Year.
However, the low season for air transport in 2024 will not only come early when the number of passengers has slowed down since the beginning of August, but may last until the end of December, even though domestic airfares have dropped sharply compared to the summer peak.
“Although ticket prices have decreased, they are still higher than the price level in 2022 and 2023, while tourism stimulus policies implemented between airlines and accommodation establishments were activated quite late (late June 2024), not creating enough momentum to increase demand for air travel,” said a representative of an airline.
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Pressure from Q4/2024
According to the leader of the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam, the not-so-bright business results in September 2024 will greatly affect the business results of the third and fourth quarters of 2024, because the passenger transport output in the first 9 months of the year is still quite far from the target set by the airlines for the whole year of 2024.
Vietnam Airlines Group (including Vietnam Airlines, Pacific Airlines, VASCO) aims to transport 18.073 million domestic passengers and 8.98 million international passengers for the whole year of 2024, but by the end of September 2024, Vietnam Airlines and the 2 airlines in the group have only transported 12.8 million domestic passengers and 5.494 million international passengers.
Vietjet set a target of transporting 17.452 million domestic passengers and 9.85 million international passengers for the whole year of 2024, but by the end of September, it had only transported 11.5 million domestic passengers and 7.53 million international passengers.
The pressure to complete the passenger transport output target for the two units holding more than 85% of the domestic air transport market share is very high, because October and November of each year are usually the most gloomy business periods, the period when airlines carry out many maintenance activities and fleet maintenance to welcome the peak season at the end of the year and Lunar New Year.
It is known that while waiting for the market to recover from the Lunar New Year 2025, airlines are expected to launch many cheap ticket programs to stimulate demand. Meanwhile, aviation service providers are also taking the opportunity to improve service quality, which has been deteriorating due to having to operate in a state of constant overload.
However, the pressure from the increase in the USD exchange rate compared to the domestic currency in many countries around the world has affected the business operations of airlines; armed conflicts in some countries and regions affect the supply chain of products, materials, and equipment in the aviation industry, and can also change and prolong the schedules and flight routes of flights...
“The above issues will be a burden on management, operation and exploitation costs of airlines in particular and businesses in the aviation industry in general in the fourth quarter of 2024,” said the leader of the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/cac-hang-bay-phap-phong-trong-mua-thap-diem-d225025.html
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