The number of international visitors increased by more than 40% in the first months of the year, contributing to the growth of retail sales in Vietnam in 2024.
Indian tourists shop at a store on Le Loi Street, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City - Photo: MS
Retail sales growth in 2024 remains largely stable, with a 7.1% increase in October, bringing the year-to-date average to 8.5% year-over-year. Compared to 2023, the increase is 10.4%.
According to UOB Bank experts in the latest report, retail growth was partly supported by a 41% increase in international tourist arrivals, reaching 14.1 million visitors from the beginning of the year to October 2024.
The increase in top tourist sources includes South Korea, China, Taiwan, the US and Japan. The surge in visitors to Vietnam not only creates momentum for the accommodation and food service industry, but also drives domestic consumption demand, including fashion, cosmetics, and handicraft products.
A representative of Satra, the retailer that owns TAX Trade Center stores on Nguyen Hue, Le Loi, Dong Khoi, and Phan Chu Trinh walking streets, said that since the beginning of the year, the stores have regularly welcomed 30-40 tourist groups each month.
In addition to shopping for Vietnamese specialties, customers can also participate in handmade chocolate making workshops or try traditional cakes and jams. "Recently, the number of Indian tourists has increased, so we have also equipped ourselves with greeting skills and appropriate gift giving to create comfort and impression on visitors," said a store representative.
In addition to the increasing presence of gift shops, supermarkets and convenience stores, tourists are also supported with various payment methods. According to domestic service and travel companies, the growth rate will be higher when Vietnam enters the peak season for international visitors, from October to March next year.
However, according to businesses, compared to the boom before the COVID pandemic in 2019, Vietnam's tourism still needs one to two more years to return to the pre-pandemic level of 18 million arrivals. Currently, localities are enhancing services and products to extend the length of stay as well as spending of tourists through year-end shopping events and festivals.
GDP 2024 reaches 6.4%
Given the current situation, UOB experts maintain Vietnam's full-year economic growth forecast at 6.4%, with Q4-2024 growth forecast at 5.2% year-on-year.
UOB also forecasts Vietnam’s exports to rise 18%, which would be the strongest since 2021. Actual FDI reached $19.6 billion, on track to set a record for the third consecutive year.
For 2025, the financial institution predicts a growth rate of 6.6%. Vietnam's National Assembly has set a GDP growth target of 6.5-7.0% for 2024 and 6.5-7.0% for 2025, while "striving" to reach 7.0-7.5%.
However, Vietnam’s economy may face risks from global trade tensions, especially if the US reimposes trade restrictions under Trump 2.0. The US trade deficit with Vietnam has increased from $39.5 billion in 2018 to nearly $105 billion in 2023. This is a factor that could put pressure on Vietnam’s economy in the coming time.
With global trade tensions forecast to continue to rise under Trump 2.0 and the strength of the US dollar a growing concern, the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to maintain a stable monetary policy amid low inflation, below 4.5% from June 2023.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ban-le-huong-loi-tu-luong-du-khach-quoc-te-tang-manh-20241204161711396.htm
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