ASEAN and the 2024 US election

For many reasons, the 2024 US election attracts special attention from ASEAN, with member countries hoping to quickly adapt to policy changes from the next administration in Washington.

Some reports on ASEAN-US relations

The 2024 US election dominated discussions among Biden-Harris administration officials, academics, independent experts and ASEAN journalists who participated in the ASEAN-US Economic Cooperation Reporting Program, organized by the US Mission to ASEAN (Indonesia) and the East-West Center (Hawaii) in late October and early November.

The exchanges reflected the interest of the ASEAN press in particular and each ASEAN member country in general in the results of the 2024 US election.

Uncertainty and Continuity

One of the questions raised in the discussions always focused on the need to analyze the US election situation between the two-party presidential candidates, as well as the potential impact on each ASEAN country and the entire bloc in case the Republican or Democratic candidate wins the election on November 5.

At a meeting, Dr. Satu Limaye, Director of the Washington Office of the East-West Center and Vice President of the center, mentioned the report titled "Asia Beyond Uncertainty and Continuity of US Regional Policy in the Context of the 2024 Election". ASEAN is an important part of the common policy in the region.

The “uncertainty” felt by Asia stems from a variety of factors, and the intensity varies from country to country, according to the report. The Philippines, for example, was found to be among the countries most worried about the dire consequences of a loss of support from the new US administration.

In addition, uncertainty also comes from the feeling of not having a clear grasp of reliable information about US political dynamics, including foreign policy and global economic relations. As a result, ASEAN countries have difficulty in coming up with effective measures to respond to emerging trends in US policy, not to mention unpredictable surprises that may occur.

The report cites several specific examples of uncertainty, such as the dispute between the two candidates over the Washington administration's stance on Ukraine, and growing protectionism within both the Republican and Democratic parties.

In contrast, the theme of “continuity” refers to the fact that many Asian countries, including ASEAN members, have worked with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during his first term (2017-2021) and the Biden-Harris administration through visits by Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate.

American voters go to the polls in Washington DC on November 5.

As a result, ASEAN countries feel somewhat confident in handling relations with the US regardless of who wins. They also analyze that while there are many surprises, especially in the case of Mr. Trump's election, some key aspects of US policy are still predictable.

For example, strategic competition continues to exist between the United States and China, and Washington will continue to take measures to respond to challenges from Beijing.

Thus, a key challenge facing much of Asia is how to adapt to and deal with continuity in US policy during a transition of administration.

In this context, most regional countries maintain close relations with the US Congress, as well as relations with foreign and defense policy-making agencies in Washington.

Based on existing relationships, Asian governments feel they can still adapt in time to unexpected changes from the upcoming US administration.

What is America missing in ASEAN?

In a subsequent meeting with Andreyka Natalegawa, Southeast Asia Program expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington DC), he commented that Southeast Asia is receiving more attention than ever from the current administration in Washington. However, the level of awareness and understanding of the region is still inadequate.

Andreyka Natalegawa, Southeast Asia Program Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Organizations like CSIS are working to bridge the gap and come up with effective ways to advance ASEAN-US relations. All of this is happening against the backdrop of some important geostrategic shifts, such as the growing US-China rivalry in the region, Natalegawa said.

Dr. Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI, based in Washington DC), also said that the US is having difficulty finding an effective way to cooperate with the Southeast Asian region.

Dr. Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

According to the AEI expert, compared to ASEAN, the US is putting more effort into the Quad, G7, and AUKUS (UK-US-Australia security agreement). Therefore, he expressed concern when commenting that so far the Washington administration has not had a clear institutional cooperation plan with ASEAN.

However, Dr. Cooper said that America's involvement in Southeast Asia will not fundamentally change regardless of which side wins the November 5 election.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/asean-va-bau-cu-my-nam-2024-185241230190837002.htm