The impact of capital flows and seasonality has a significant impact

Domestic pepper prices today (October 2, 2024) have tended to alternate between slight increases and decreases, reflecting changes in market sentiment and the impact of macroeconomic factors. Although Vietnam's average export pepper price in September 2024 reached its highest level in the past 8 years, creating an optimistic picture for the pepper industry, in reality the domestic market is facing a number of challenges.

According to a market survey, today's pepper prices in some key growing areas decreased slightly compared to yesterday. Thereby, the domestic pepper price level was from 147,500 VND/kg to 148,000 VND/kg. In the Central Highlands, today's pepper prices in Dak Lak increased slightly by 500 VND/kg to 149,000 VND/kg. Today's pepper prices in Gia Lai decreased by 1,000 VND/kg to 147,000 VND/kg. Today's pepper prices in Dak Nong were at 148,000 VND/kg. In the Southeast region, today's pepper prices in Ba Ria - Vung Tau are currently at 148,000 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. In addition, today's pepper prices in Binh Phuoc increased by 1,000 VND/kg to 149,000 VND/kg.

It is forecasted that domestic pepper prices will continue to decrease slightly tomorrow (October 3, 2024), fluctuating between 147,000 - 149,000 VND/kg. This downward trend is believed to be due to capital being attracted to coffee. Robusta coffee prices are increasing, creating great attraction for investors, causing capital to shift from pepper to coffee. Traders and investors are focusing on the coffee market, paying less attention to pepper, leading to reduced consumption demand.

Pepper price forecast tomorrow (October 3, 2024) may continue to decrease slightly.

In addition, the coffee harvest season in Vietnam is coming up, expected to take place in the fourth quarter of 2024. Traders need capital to import coffee, so they will liquidate pepper inventories to recover capital. This also creates further downward pressure on pepper prices.

Domestic transactions are currently quite quiet as there is not much supply in the domestic market. The shortage of pepper supply in the domestic market due to reduced harvest output and reduced consumption demand has slowed down transactions. The stagnation in transactions makes it difficult for pepper prices to increase sharply.

However, the outlook for domestic pepper prices remains positive. Vietnam's average export pepper price in September 2024 reached its highest level in the past 8 years, reflecting that the demand for pepper in the international market remains high. Experts are still optimistic that domestic pepper prices may exceed VND160,000/kg before the new harvest season in Vietnam. This forecast is based on the positive outlook for the international pepper market and increased domestic demand when the new harvest season begins.

Investment capital is an important factor affecting the prices of agricultural products, including pepper. When capital flows into a product, the price of that product will increase due to increased demand. Conversely, when capital flows out of a product, the price will decrease due to decreased demand. Seasonality is also an important factor affecting pepper prices. During the harvest season, pepper supply increases, leading to a decrease in prices. Conversely, when the harvest season ends, supply decreases, and prices increase.

To make effective investment decisions, investors as well as pepper growers need to closely monitor market developments and consult experts.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-mai-3102024-anh-huong-cua-dong-von-va-mua-vu-gay-tac-dong-dang-ke-349837.html