Export growth 16%
According to the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of May to May 15, the country's goods exports reached 14.64 billion USD. In total, from the beginning of the year to May 15, the total export turnover reached 138.59 billion USD, an increase of 16% over the same period in 2023 (equivalent to an additional turnover of 19.17 billion USD).
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| Exports to FTA markets all have good recovery. |
On the other hand, from the beginning of May to May 15, imports of goods reached 17.26 billion USD. Accumulated from the beginning of the year to May 15, the total import turnover of the whole country reached 132.23 billion USD, up 17.5% over the same period last year (equivalent to an increase of 19.7 billion USD).
Thus, as of mid-May, the country's total import-export turnover reached 270.82 billion USD, with a trade surplus of 6.36 billion USD. Notably, according to the General Department of Customs, all 10 largest export markets had positive growth, including: the United States, the EU, China, ASEAN, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong (China), India, Canada, and Australia. Of which, the 5 largest markets with the most impressive growth were: the United States, China, the EU, ASEAN, and Hong Kong (China).
Unlike the gloomy situation of last year, textile and garment exports this year have shown clear improvement. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first four months of this year, textile and garment export turnover increased by 6.3% over the same period. Enterprises have enough export orders until the end of the third quarter and are negotiating more orders for the fourth quarter. With this momentum, many comments have been made that the textile and garment export target for the whole year of about 44 billion USD is completely feasible. Notably, according to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, many retail groups in the member blocs of free trade agreements such as Canada, Australia, Europe, etc. have come to Vietnam to seek supply chains with competitive prices.
Along with market diversification, customer diversification and product diversification, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association also said that businesses in the industry are making efforts to transform green, digitally, and improve product quality. Because when production changes to meet the requirements of importers, textiles and garments are still an advantageous product group for Vietnam to achieve the set growth targets.
In the agricultural, forestry and fishery sector, pepper is one of the agricultural products with a sharp increase in price, with an increase of about 30% compared to the same period last year. According to preliminary statistics of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), by the end of April 2024, Vietnam had exported 83,067 tons of pepper of all kinds, with a total export turnover of 352 million USD.
Speaking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Ms. Hoang Thi Lien - President of the Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association said that the global pepper market is valued at 5.43 billion USD, with an average growth forecast of more than 20% in the period 2024 - 2032. The Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) estimates that Vietnam's pepper output in the 2023 - 2024 crop will increase by about 5% compared to 2022. Vietnam's 2024 pepper crop is expected to increase to 225,000 tons compared to an estimated 200,000 tons of last year's crop. According to VPSA's forecast, prices will continue to increase in the coming time, helping the pepper industry reach the 1 billion USD export mark this year.
Goods exports in 2024 will achieve growth target
Speaking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong - former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - commented that although the world economy is considered to have not recovered and there are still many fluctuations due to competition and geopolitical issues, 2024 is considered more positive for import and export activities. Accordingly, import and export are forecasted to recover slightly. The reason is that inflation in major economies in the world such as the US and EU has begun to decrease, although not much. Central banks of countries have stopped raising interest rates and from June or July, many major economies may reduce interest rates, at which time the world economy will begin to gradually increase.
Vietnam's economy is highly open, and Vietnam's exports depend heavily on the world. Increased world demand will boost Vietnam's exports and imports of goods will also increase to serve export activities.
In addition, throughout 2022 and 2023, due to the difficult economic situation, low demand in many countries, high inflation, high interest rates, many buyers in those countries temporarily stopped importing, they used inventory to sell. Up to now, the inventory has been depleted, they have to import again, world demand has started to increase slightly. These factors combined help our current exports of some items increase relatively, especially consumer goods.
With the above analysis, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong believes that from now until the end of 2024, Vietnam's import and export activities will be favorable. "In the first 4 months of 2024, the export turnover of goods is estimated at 123.64 billion USD, an increase of 15% over the same period last year. With this result, I believe that the export of goods for the whole year of 2024 will achieve the growth target of about 6% compared to 2023 set by the Ministry of Industry and Trade" , Dr. Le Quoc Phuong assessed.
From another perspective, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan - Member of the Economic Committee of the National Assembly - assessed that in the first 4 months of 2024, the export situation of goods is favorable but only in the short term. In the long term, with political conflicts in the world; the situation of trade protection, implementation of international treaties, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) ..., exports in the coming time will face many difficulties. Besides, businesses must meet the requirements of green transformation of the world economy. In particular, it is necessary to mention the EU bloc's warning that it will apply carbon tax on goods that affect the environment, emit greenhouse gases ... Therefore, Mr. Tran Hoang Ngan recommended that the Government should have policies to support businesses in the issue of green transformation.
In the current context, import and export activities are facing many difficulties due to the impact of the complex and unpredictable developments in the world and the region; high inflation causes a decrease in export orders. Conflicts break out in many places… causing disruptions to the global supply chain, increasing production and transportation costs.
However, according to estimates from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 5 months of 2024, goods exports reached about 156.5 billion USD, an increase of 15% over the same period last year. Notably, exports to FTA markets all had a good recovery.
Specifically, in the first 4 months of 2024, Vietnam's goods exports to the ASEAN region increased by 10.5%; to Japan increased by 3.3%, to South Korea increased by 8.6%, to the EU increased by 15.1%, and to Australia increased by 22.6%. Over the past year, Vietnam has upgraded its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with two major partners, China and the United States. Of which, trade is considered an important pillar. Exports to China in the first 4 months of the year reached 17 billion USD, up 12.8%; to the United States reached 34.7 billion USD, up 21.2%.
To support businesses in export activities, in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to proactively coordinate with ministries and branches to promote negotiations and sign new trade agreements with other potential partners; support businesses to maximize opportunities in the agreements; regularly exchange and grasp difficulties and obstacles in each export industry to promptly find solutions to remove and promote export activities.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-hang-hoa-se-ve-dich-trong-nam-nay-322529.html
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