Exporting goods to the United States, recommendations from experts

The United States is Vietnam's largest export market and is also a key market that many Vietnamese businesses aim to promote export activities.

The United States is Vietnam's largest export market.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam-US trade exceeded 100 billion USD for the first time in 2021 with a figure of 111.5 billion USD. Entering 2022, despite facing many difficulties due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, two-way trade still had remarkable growth with a turnover of nearly 124 billion USD.

The United States is Vietnam's largest export market. Illustrative photo.

In 2023, it will decrease to 110.8 billion USD (down 10.5% compared to 2022), of which Vietnam will export goods worth 97 billion USD to the US, down 11.3% compared to 2022, and import from the US will reach 13.8 billion USD, down 4.5%. The trade surplus with the US will reach 83.2 billion USD, down 12.3% compared to 2022.

In 2024, the total two-way trade turnover between Vietnam and the United States is estimated to reach more than 132 billion USD. Of which, Vietnam's export turnover to the United States is nearly 119 billion USD, up 23.3% over the same period last year. In the opposite direction, import turnover from the United States is 13 billion USD, up 7.3%. Thus, the Vietnam - US trade surplus is estimated at 106 billion USD, up more than 26%.

The above figures confirm that the United States is Vietnam’s largest export market and second largest trading partner; while Vietnam has risen to become the United States’ eighth largest trading partner and the United States’ fourth largest export market in the ASEAN region, playing an increasingly important role in the global supply chain. Key export items from Vietnam include footwear, furniture, machinery and optical equipment.

According to Ms. Cao Thi Phi Van - Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Investment and Trade Promotion Center (ITPC), the United States is currently Vietnam's leading trade partner, and this is also a key market that many Vietnamese enterprises aim to promote import and export activities.

The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - an economic expert - assessed, this will have many impacts on the import and export activities of countries including Vietnam. Donald Trump's policy is aimed at the United States, therefore, it is possible to impose high taxes on imported goods and some countries.

However, Mr. Donald Trump is a businessman and has very sharp views. We also hope that the policies of the President-elect Donald Trump administration, if not too different from the previous term, will be a good opportunity for Vietnam to boost import and export activities.

According to economist Dinh Trong Thinh, currently, Vietnam's largest export market is the United States. With President Donald Trump and the current US administration, they understand Vietnam better, so they do not "scrutinize" Vietnamese goods too much. Of course, they still have requirements for goods to ensure that goods exported to their country must meet the standards, so we must also strive to meet the standards they set.

But I think these things are not too important, because when the US economy grows well, the income of the US people increases, their spending will also increase and they will increase the import of goods. On the other hand, when their production grows well, they also have to import raw materials and components. So, these are the conditions for us to be able to export goods better.

The US government taxes all imported goods into their market. Taxation means goods are more expensive and harder to sell, but this applies to the whole world, not just Vietnam.

The tax on Mexico is also beneficial for Vietnamese goods because Mexico mainly exports agricultural products to the United States, so Vietnam's competitiveness will be better. Not to mention, the way to manage the exchange rate is to keep the VND stable with the USD. We do not devalue the currency, so we are completely capable of exporting goods to the United States in the near future.

On the other hand, if we keep the VND stable with the USD, it will make investors actively invest in Vietnam, Vietnam's economy will grow higher, we will have more access to new machinery and technology from the world and the export capacity will be better.

Of course, there will be changes, we must closely monitor, be flexible, proactive and actively change ourselves to adapt. However, the general picture is that production, business, import and export activities of Vietnam in general and to the US market in particular will be better.

Ministry of Industry and Trade accompanies export enterprises

Talking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - Senior Lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics, National Economics University - assessed that Vietnam's current warning mechanism is very good, so businesses have avoided trade defense lawsuits. Along with Vietnamese businesses diversifying their markets and developing in chains, Americans will also be willing to share risks when buying Vietnamese goods. They also think of ways to easily import Vietnamese goods.

On the other hand, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also believes that if Vietnam's foreign policy is skillful, we will not only avoid risks but also face great opportunities in our import and export activities.

Vietnam is currently behind China and Mexico in terms of trade surplus with the US market. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - commented that Mr. Donald Trump's goal is to reduce the trade deficit; promote domestic production and attract investment.

To maintain export turnover to the US market, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has outlined two scenarios. The optimistic scenario is that the US maintains its current tax policy on Vietnamese goods. In the trend of shifting supply chains, Vietnam can completely welcome investment flows to increase exports.

In the second scenario, if the tariff is more stringent, it could impact the global economy, causing Vietnam's goods exports to be affected to some extent. For this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider reporting to the Government to support manufacturing and export enterprises in diversifying markets in the coming time.

Mr. Michael Kokalari - Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital - said, we believe that Vietnam will maintain stable growth momentum under the Trump administration.

Vietnam’s skillful “Bamboo Diplomacy” of maintaining good relations with all the world’s major powers has helped it achieve much success, and there is no reason to believe that this will change. While it is possible that the US will impose new tariffs on imported goods, we believe that it is very unlikely that the US will impose heavy tariffs (20-30%) on imported goods from Vietnam.

Moreover, if the US imposes comprehensive tariffs, Vietnam will still retain its advantage over other competitors in terms of FDI inflows. Therefore, the factors that make Vietnam attractive to manufacturers and have attracted billions of dollars of FDI will continue to be maintained.

The two countries' official announcement to upgrade their relationship to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2023 has created a solid foundation, helping the cooperation between the two countries to deepen and be substantive on all pillars, in which the economic - trade - investment pillar continues to play a central role in promoting the relationship between the two countries.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-hang-hoa-sang-hoa-ky-khuyen-nghi-tu-chuyen-gia-368891.html