Kinhtedothi - As someone who is closely attached to Vietnam, Australian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Vietnam Andrew Goledzinowski wrote a heartfelt article about Vietnam's Rising Era before ending his term in the land where he "left his whole heart".
The history of nations rarely follows a straight line. Policy and structural reforms are rare, but when they do occur, they are often followed by periods of rapid economic growth. This was Australia’s experience after a series of reforms in the late 1980s and early 1990s. However, all reforms eventually become obsolete and inefficiencies begin to creep into the system, causing economic stagnation. In some countries, this will create a new cycle of reform, while in others it will lead to indefinite stagnation.
In Vietnam, too, the late 1980s were a period of bold change—change that laid the foundation for decades of success. An elderly Vietnamese engineer once explained to me about Doi Moi as a giant mechanical spring that had kept Vietnam’s economy and society bouncing for years. But “that spring had reached its limit, and a new spring was needed to propel the country forward.”
During my time in Vietnam, I have come to understand the importance of balance and harmony in Vietnamese society. I sense (from a diplomatic perspective) a strong, widespread consensus among the people that a period of reform is necessary. But there is also some skepticism about whether it is possible. So my purpose in writing this article is to provide a sympathetic, but honest, perspective on current trends.
Change, especially when it is revolutionary, is often disruptive and even the most necessary and positive changes inevitably create winners and losers. In the Australian context, major policy changes are often accompanied by vigorous public debate. We value that. But sometimes much-needed reforms fail due to partisan differences or political disagreements. Vietnam’s political system is based on consensus. I don’t think any system is perfect in navigating change and every system has its own examples of success and failure. However, leadership and perseverance are always the deciding factors.
At the Politburo and Secretariat National Conference held on Sunday, December 1, General Secretary To Lam gave an important speech, in which I was immediately impressed by a number of things. First, there was no ideological language – the speech was about action rather than ideas. Second, instead of the usual calls for foreign investment, infrastructure and energy transition, the speech focused on creating the conditions necessary to make all of this happen. Finally, the language was straightforward. The General Secretary held up a mirror in which everyone could see themselves reflected. It was a very powerful statement.
The General Secretary’s focus is on the government apparatus and how to improve its performance. The Vietnam-Australia Center (VAC) at the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics has facilitated research and discussion on public service reform. To be effective, change must not only be structural but also cultural, and at all levels. The best public service models are those that value initiative while emphasizing accountability, responsibility, and transparency.
For me, however, the most striking part of the speech was the commitment to double-digit economic growth – a necessary and promising thing, but one that also requires a new way of doing business. The Vietnamese government has been pushing for steady economic growth of 6%-7% while keeping a firm grip on the steering wheel. However, to achieve faster growth, the government needs to take the wheel and set economic direction from the back seat.
Vietnam’s new era comes at a crucial time in an increasingly difficult global environment. Economically, we are in a period of de-risking and decoupling, with shorter supply chains and potentially higher tariffs. This is not ideal for trading nations like Vietnam and Australia. But Vietnam has some big advantages, attracting huge interest at a time when global capital is looking for safe havens. But money, like water, tends to flow to low places and does not wait. And, if blocked, it will take a different route.
There is a large pool of finance waiting for Vietnam, especially from institutional investors, if the right legal and regulatory framework is in place. For Australian investors, this includes faster licensing, clearer tax laws, legal certainty, and the ability to exit when the time comes.
The geostrategic situation is also complex. The consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including its consequences for our region, have yet to be felt. Conflicts, tensions and realignments are taking place across the globe. Many of these factors are interrelated. Fortunately, the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry and diplomats are a valuable asset to the country, and Vietnamese diplomacy is admired around the world. In the context of increasing geopolitical competition, I expect Vietnam to continue to maintain its consistent policy. I also hope that Vietnam’s presence in the world will increase, but in its own way.
Vietnam and Australia are different in many ways but special partners. The 50-year journey of cooperation has created a relationship of trust and respect. We were among the top three investors in Vietnam, supplying the first submarine cable, the first satellite link, the first 500KV North-South power line and the first bridges across the Mekong River… As Vietnam modernises its economy and the value curve is on an upward trend, the opportunities for cooperation with Australia will increase again. Currently, I know of Australian companies willing to invest in Vietnam’s offshore wind power, processing of rare earths and critical minerals such as tungsten, digital transformation, agricultural technology, and higher education… I very much hope that projects between the two countries will take place in all of these areas.
The purpose of this article is to make clear Australia’s support for the direction Vietnam is taking. You are an important country to us – and not just as a trading partner. History, geography and common sense tell us that a peaceful, prosperous and sovereign Vietnam is essential to the stability and prosperity of the whole region. And while Vietnam may face significant challenges, they are nothing compared to what it has faced and overcome.
Previously, I compared Vietnam to the Vinfast VF8 car - with the handbrake still pulled. The handbrake will soon be released and the world will witness Vietnam accelerating into a new and exciting future.
My tenure in Vietnam is, unfortunately, coming to an end. But my heart is here with the wonderful people of Vietnam. I look forward to continuing my close relationship with Vietnam and the many friends I have been fortunate to make in this country.
Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/viet-nam-se-vung-tay-cheo-trong-ky-nguyen-moi.html
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