There are still many reasons to be optimistic.

Towards the end of 2024, the story of the lack of new supply sources causing the lack of motivation for cash flow into the stock market is often mentioned as one of the factors causing the attraction of this capital market to decrease. However, the market still has many reasons to be optimistic.

Vietnam Stock Market: There Are Still Many Reasons to Be Optimistic

Towards the end of 2024, the story of the lack of new supply sources causing the lack of motivation for cash flow into the stock market is often mentioned as one of the factors causing the attraction of this capital market to decrease. However, the market still has many reasons to be optimistic.

Quy Nhon Port Joint Stock Company is one of three new listed companies on HoSE in January 2024.

Tired of waiting for new listed companies

Since the beginning of 2024, the number of newly listed enterprises on both exchanges can be counted on the fingers. On HoSE, the beginning of the year recorded 3 new listed stocks in January, including HNA of Hua Na Hydropower Joint Stock Company, QNP of Quy Nhon Port Joint Stock Company and TCI of Thanh Cong Securities Joint Stock Company.

This is also the month with the largest number of newly listed stocks on HoSE. Since then, the number of newly listed companies has been 1-2 companies per month, and there have even been months when no new companies have been listed.

With the listing of Hoang Gia Production and Investment Joint Stock Company on December 12, 2024 with the stock code RYG, a total of 10 new stock codes have been listed on HoSE since the beginning of the year. In addition to the above codes, there are also VTB code of Viettel Post Joint Stock Corporation, NAB code of Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank, MCM code of Moc Chau Dairy Cattle Breeding Joint Stock Company, DSE code of DNSE Securities Joint Stock Company, GEE code of Gelex Electricity Joint Stock Company, DSC code of DSC Securities Joint Stock Company.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), the situation is even more deserted, the whole year 2024 only recorded the additional code PTX from the newly listed enterprise, Petrolimex Nghe Tinh Transport and Services Joint Stock Company and CAR stock of Tri Viet Education Group Joint Stock Company transferred from UPCoM in October.

HNX leaders said that as of October 31, 2024, the listed market on HNX had 312 stock codes, with a total listed value calculated at par value of VND 157,000 billion, equivalent to a market capitalization value of VND 319,000 billion, a slight decrease compared to the end of 2023.

The number of listed companies on HNX has been on a downward trend since 2020, from 355 listed companies to only 312. According to the leader of HNX, in addition to the reason that the number of newly listed companies is small, only about 3-4 companies/year, there is also the reason that from 2021, the listing conditions on HNX have been raised.

Meanwhile, the number of delisted enterprises increased due to monitoring and application of sanctions against violating enterprises. In 2019, about 20 enterprises delisted and 23 enterprises deregistered for trading. In the first 10 months of 2024, about 15 enterprises delisted and 22 enterprises deregistered for trading.

A quiet year for IPOs

In the Vietnamese stock market, in addition to the fact that there has not been a new listing deal that has attracted strong attention for a long time, the IPO (initial public offering) situation is also very quiet, when in the whole year of 2024 there was only one deal from DNSE Securities Joint Stock Company. This deal raised about 37 million USD - surpassing the mobilization results of the entire Vietnamese market in 2023, and is also the first IPO deal in Vietnam in the field of financial technology.

The gloomy situation of Vietnam's IPO market has been predicted long ago. The lack of liquidity in the market, regulations such as IPO companies must have 2 consecutive years of profitable operations, instead of 1 year as in the old regulations, and no accumulated losses, are assessed by VNDirect as barriers that make IPOs difficult.

The sluggish IPO market is not only happening in Vietnam. Deloitte's report on the IPO market in Southeast Asia shows that IPO delays are happening in many countries in the region. The Singapore market has seen 4 IPOs on the Catalist floor, raising about 34 million USD since the beginning of 2024, the lowest in the past 5 years (2020 - 2024) in terms of both quantity and value raised.

Indonesia’s IPO market has seen a significant decline since the start of the year, with 39 deals raising $368 million as of November 15, 2024, compared to 79 deals raising $3.6 billion in all of 2023. Smaller companies have been participating in IPOs with more cautious fundraising targets due to the country’s election year in 2024, and have been negatively impacted by global market headwinds.

Similarly, Thailand also recorded a decline in the number of IPOs in 2024, with only 29 IPOs taking place as of November 15, 2024, the lowest since 2021. However, the bright spot was the total amount raised reaching 756 million USD, accounting for 26% of the region's total, making Thailand one of the top 3 markets in Southeast Asia.

With Indonesia's sharp decline, in the first 10.5 months of 2024, the IPO capital market in Southeast Asia witnessed 122 deals, down 25% compared to 2023 and raised about 2.9 billion USD, the lowest level in the past 9 years, down sharply from the 5.8 billion USD raised through 163 deals in 2023.

Deloitte predicts that the Southeast Asian IPO market will face significant challenges in 2024, including currency volatility, regulatory differences between markets, and geopolitical tensions, all of which will impact trade and investment. High interest rates across ASEAN economies continue to constrain corporate borrowing, slowing IPO activity as companies choose to delay listings. In addition, market volatility among major trading partners has weighed on investor confidence.

Promoting new sources of supply must go hand in hand with quality of supply.

The lack of new supply not only puts pressure on market liquidity, but also reduces its attractiveness to investors.

Looking ahead to the future of the region’s IPO market, Ms. Hwee Ling, Accounting Assurance & Reporting Services Leader at Deloitte Southeast Asia, said that expected interest rate cuts coupled with a reduction in inflation could create a more favorable environment for IPOs in the coming years.

“Southeast Asia’s strong consumer base, growing middle class and strategic importance in sectors such as real estate, healthcare and renewable energy remain attractive to investors. As foreign direct investment continues to flow into the region, 2025 is poised to be a year for new IPOs across Southeast Asia,” said Ms. Hwee Ling.

The difficulties of 2024 pose big problems for 2025, but also bring opportunities for the Vietnamese stock market to transform.

Looking at Vietnam specifically, the difficulties of 2024 pose big problems for 2025, but also bring opportunities for the Vietnamese stock market to transform.

In addition to the need for new sources of goods, the quality of newly listed companies is a matter of concern. In fact, although there are new companies on the market, they have not really attracted investors' cash flow. In a conversation between leading securities experts, the story of new sources of goods was raised, in which technology stocks on the Vietnamese stock exchange are still quite scarce.

Currently, the Vietnamese stock market is still mainly led by stocks in traditional sectors such as banking, real estate and manufacturing. In particular, financial and banking stocks always account for a large proportion of the market. Meanwhile, when talking about technology stocks, the market can only mention a few familiar names such as FPT. Many large technology companies in Vietnam have not yet listed, leaving the market lacking an important growth driver in the digital age.

Technology and semiconductor stocks are expected to create a new wind for the stock market. Looking back at 2024, technology stocks have enjoyed a positive price increase, with FPT even continuously reaching new price peaks. Globally, in the US stock market, technology stocks account for a large proportion, and with the trend of semiconductor chips, this group has continuously pushed the US stock market up.

In Vietnam, bright prospects are expected for technology businesses related to new industries such as data centers, semiconductors or 5G. In 2024, a series of positive information related to the technology industry, especially the event of NVIDIA announcing the opening of the R&D Center and AI Data Center in Vietnam, has repositioned our country's technology position.

This is also a regional trend. Many Southeast Asian tech companies previously targeted IPOs in the US, but are now shifting to regional exchanges.

The technology industry is one of the industries that will benefit from the uncertain picture in 2025. The fact that the existing technology stocks on the Vietnamese stock market have attracted cash flow, FPT has continuously set new historical peaks, and the Information Technology Industry Index (VNIT) has recorded a continuous increase in transaction value since the beginning of 2024 shows that cash flow in the stock market is not weak and is still looking for opportunities to disburse into quality sources of goods.

Although 2024 is a challenging year, the Vietnamese stock market still has many reasons to be optimistic. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment, along with supportive policies from the Government, is opening up great opportunities for businesses and investors in 2025.

The stock market is not only a reflection of the health of the economy, but also a driving force for long-term development. With careful preparation and a clear strategy, 2025 can be a breakthrough year, bringing the Vietnamese stock market closer to international standards.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-van-co-nhieu-ly-do-de-lac-quan-d237526.html