| Coffee price forecast August 21, 2024: Continuing the upward trend, approaching the 119,000 VND/kg mark? Coffee price forecast August 22, 2024: Robusta hits peak, what will happen to the coffee market? |
Coffee price forecast for August 23, 2024, in the domestic market continues to increase. Concerns about the impact of climate change on production in leading coffee producing countries, including Vietnam, have contributed to the increase in domestic coffee prices.
According to preliminary data from the General Department of Customs, in the first 15 days of August 2024, Vietnam exported 36,903 tons of coffee, earning 195.34 million USD, down 7.5% in volume but up 67.4% in value over the same period last year.
At the end of the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October last year to July this year), Vietnam's coffee exports reached more than 1.3 million tons, equivalent to 90% of the current crop year's output and down 12.4% compared to the same period last crop year.
According to forecasts, from September to October, Vietnam is likely to transition to La Nina status with a rate of 60-70%. It is expected that from November 2024 to January 2025, La Nina status will remain at a rate of 70-80%.
This situation could cause heavy rains in the North and complicated weather conditions in the Central region. This is not favorable for farmers, especially during the harvest season from October to November, raising concerns about coffee supply from Vietnam.
Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on August 22, 2024 as follows: The domestic coffee market today continued to increase compared to the same time yesterday, an increase of 1,100 - 1,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 119,300 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,200 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 119,100 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 119,200 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 119,300 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 118,500 VND/kg.
Coffee prices today (August 22) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 119,200 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 119,100 VND/kg.
Updated world coffee prices at 20:30 on August 22, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London exchange was at 4,872 USD/ton, down 82 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
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| Coffee price today August 22, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com |
The November 2024 delivery term is 4,555 USD/ton, down 77 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 4,360 USD/ton, down 80 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,198 USD/ton, down 81 USD.
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| Coffee price today August 22, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com |
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on August 22, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 236.55 - 242.10 cents/lb.
Specifically, the December 2024 delivery period is 242.10 cents/lb; down 7.15 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2025 delivery period is 240.45 cents/lb, down 6.60 cents/lb; the May 2025 delivery period is 238.60 cents/lb, down 6.35 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 236.55 cents/lb, down 6.05 cents/lb.
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| Coffee price today August 22, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on August 22, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 296.10 USD/ton, down 2.76%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 296.20 USD/ton, down 2.39%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 294.60 USD/ton, down 2.87% and the delivery period for May 2025 is 299.80 USD/ton, up 0.57%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
In the first months of 2024, coffee import turnover of many major markets such as the EU, US, Canada, Japan, and China all increased due to increased demand and high prices.
According to Eurostat, the EU's coffee imports from non-EU markets in the first five months of 2024 reached 4.93 billion EUR (equivalent to 5.36 billion USD); an increase of 35.3% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the EU's imports of this agricultural product from Vietnam recorded a high increase of 71.5%, reaching over 1 billion EUR (equivalent to 1.1 billion USD).
Vietnam's coffee market share in the EU's total import turnover from the extra-bloc market increased sharply, from 16.1% in the first 5 months of 2023 to 20.35% in the first 5 months of 2024.
According to statistics from the US International Trade Commission, in the first 5 months of 2024, the US imported 3.41 billion USD worth of coffee; an increase of 4.2% over the same period last year. Of which, coffee imported from Vietnam reached a value of 226 million USD; an increase of 31.1% over the same period last year.
Vietnam's coffee market share in total US imports accounted for 6.62% in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the market share of 5.26% in the first 5 months of 2023.
*Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.
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