US President Donald Trump has not hesitated to publicly announce the idea of Kiev granting Washington the right to mine rare earth minerals worth $500 billion in exchange for US aid. This transaction contains many implications and messages from the parties involved.
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| The agreement with Ukraine will give the US a more balanced and proactive position with China on rare earths. (Source: Rubryka) |
First of all, we need to talk about the value of this special mineral. Rare earth is a mixture of 17 chemical elements with special properties. This is an indispensable raw material for many high-tech industries, cutting-edge engineering, and the production of modern civilian and military products, from smartphones, computers, batteries, electric cars, wind turbines to semiconductor chips, airplanes, missiles, submarines, etc. Due to its many special applications, rare earth is a "strategic weapon", a card in the trade war.
Message from America
The US is a major consumer of rare earths. A US submarine requires 4.1 tons of rare earth metals, an F-35 aircraft requires nearly 450kg of rare earth metals… The US’s quickness in reaching an agreement on this rare mineral shows many problems.
First, to counter Beijing’s dominance in the global rare earth market. China has the largest reserves of rare earths, estimated at 44 out of the world’s 120 million tons, and accounts for more than 90% of global production. The United States is the second-largest customer, importing 20% of China’s rare earths. The Ukraine deal would give the United States a more balanced, proactive position vis-à-vis China in this strategic mineral. While that position is important, it’s not the only one.
Second, Washington has admitted that it has provided Kiev with a huge amount of aid, hundreds of billions of dollars, in various forms, since before the conflict broke out. Now it is time to reap the benefits of that aid. That is, “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” In doing so, President Donald Trump has scored points with the American people for bringing practical economic benefits.
Third, the US believes that the conflict in Ukraine is over, so it must quickly find a way to stay long-term, gain advantages, and gain the most lucrative market share in the post-war reconstruction, ahead of both its opponents and allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz immediately read this move as “selfish” and “self-centered”!
Fourth, present Russia with a fait accompli. About 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth reserves are located in regions that Russia has annexed and controls. If Russia continues to expand its control, the reserves will be even larger. Rare earth mining will be one of the issues that Washington and Moscow will have to discuss.
| Rare earth mining will be one of the issues to be discussed between the US and Russia. |
The State of Kiev
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Kiev is fighting on the front lines for Europe’s security, so the EU has a responsibility to support Ukraine. In addition, resources, most notably rare earths, are attractive and valuable in exchange for US and EU aid, both in conflict and in reconstruction. Ukraine holds Europe’s largest reserves of lithium, titanium and a significant amount of uranium… He has included the exchange of these minerals for aid in his “victory plan”.
However, Kiev is increasingly dependent on the US and the West. President Volodymyr Zelensky himself admitted this. He affirmed that Ukraine must have financial aid and modern weapons to stand firm and deal with Russia. Kiev's admission to NATO and the presence of the US and NATO will ensure security and peace for Ukraine. The head of the Kiev government complained that the US and the West ignored Ukraine in discussing with Russia about negotiating a solution to the conflict.
In reality, Kiev's heavy dependence on the US and the West means it has little autonomy in terms of the terms and content of negotiations to end the conflict (if it occurs). Many sources have revealed that US and Russian representatives are discussing a bilateral summit, likely to take place in February or March, which would be a breakthrough paving the way for the next steps. Some international politicians and scholars believe that Washington and Moscow are the ones who will fundamentally decide how and how to resolve the conflict. Kiev may be forced to make more concessions.
The most fundamental and core problem is that President Volodymyr Zelensky cannot decide for himself the future political and social model and institutions of Ukraine when the conflict ends. There is even information leaked that the US and the West have up their sleeves a plan to replace the head of the Kiev government, if things do not go according to their script!
Reaction from Russia
Moscow quickly responded to President Donald Trump's proposal. The Kremlin spokesman said that the idea of exchanging rare earths is essentially an aid deal between Washington and Kiev. It can be seen that the agreement is difficult to ensure feasibility and stability when the conflict has not ended, and the legality of the head of the Kiev government is still in question. Moreover, Russia is managing most of the minerals, so the subject of the exchange agreement is not only Kiev.
Moscow has repeatedly affirmed that the conflict in Ukraine is essentially a complex, multifaceted war between Russia and the United States and the West. The problem can only be resolved thoroughly and permanently if Washington and Brussels have a plan and concrete actions, and are willing to negotiate a package solution, neutralize Ukraine, completely lift the embargo, and establish equal, substantive relations with Moscow.
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International public opinion is very interested in the overall development of the conflict in Ukraine, the possibility and method of resolving the crisis, and also the specific issues involved. Among them is the proposal for a rare earth exchange agreement between Washington and Kiev. Through that specific incident as well as phone calls, information about the US-Russia summit and forecasts of solutions to the conflict in Ukraine, basic issues have emerged.
Many international politicians and scholars assess that the Kiev government is falling into the vortex of geostrategic competition between major countries, from which it is difficult to escape and the price is too high.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thong-diep-tu-thoa-thuan-dat-hiem-o-ukraine-304199.html
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