Domestic pepper prices today (October 11, 2024) continued to record a slight decrease of VND 1,000/kg compared to yesterday, trading around VND 145,000 - 147,000/kg. The highest price was recorded in Dak Lak and Dak Nong, reaching VND 147,000/kg. This decline continues to raise questions about the prospects of the domestic pepper market, especially in the context that export pepper prices are still being maintained at a stable level.
According to experts, the slight decrease in domestic pepper prices is mainly due to the impact of several factors: reduced domestic consumption demand, competitiveness from alternative products, pressure from gold and USD prices, and preparation for the new coffee harvest.
Decreased domestic demand is one of the main reasons for the decline in pepper prices. The Chinese economy, Vietnam's largest pepper import market, is facing many difficulties in 2024, especially slow growth, reduced consumer demand and pressure on foreign exchange reserves. This has led to a sharp decline in pepper imports from Vietnam to China. In fact, in the first 9 months of 2024, pepper exports to China decreased by 84.1%, greatly affecting Vietnam's total export volume.
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| Pepper price forecast for tomorrow, October 12, 2024: Market volatility due to limited supply. |
In addition, competition from substitute products such as chili, black pepper, and other spices is also putting pressure on domestic pepper prices. Consumers increasingly have more alternatives to pepper, leading to a decrease in domestic pepper consumption demand.
Pressure from gold and USD prices is also a notable factor. The high gold and USD prices have affected domestic pepper prices, making pepper more expensive than alternative products.
The preparation for the new coffee harvest is also a factor affecting the pepper market in the coming time. Farmers will focus on coffee production, leading to a decrease in pepper output.
However, although domestic pepper prices tend to decrease, Vietnam's pepper export prices remain stable due to limited supply and demand from other markets. The Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA) said that in the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 200,894 tons of pepper of all kinds, with a total export turnover of 991.0 million USD.
Forecasting pepper prices in the coming time, experts believe that domestic pepper prices will continue to fluctuate between 144,000 - 146,000 VND/kg. The preparation for the new coffee harvest may impact the pepper market in the coming time, but Vietnam's pepper export prices are expected to remain stable due to limited supply.
In summary, domestic pepper prices are showing a slight downward trend, but are still at a positive level due to limited supply and demand from other markets. However, factors such as reduced domestic consumption demand, competition from alternative products, pressure from gold and USD prices, and the upcoming coffee harvest may put pressure on the pepper market in the coming time. Farmers and businesses need to closely monitor the market situation to develop appropriate business strategies to ensure profits and sustainable development for the Vietnamese pepper industry.
*Forecast is for reference only.
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