Changing the situation or adding fuel to the fire?

President Joe Biden has decided to “break the barrier” of weapons for Ukraine. However, the “blows” cannot be created by words, Ukraine still lacks many missiles to realize the attack plans. Most likely, Mr. Biden’s nod will only complicate the situation instead of changing the conflict.

President Joe Biden has for the first time allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the United States. (Source: AP)

With Ukraine is not enough

US officials say President Joe Biden has for the first time authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the US to strike inside Russian territory.

Initially, the weapon will be used against Russian and North Korean troops to protect Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia.

Biden’s decision is a major shift in US policy. The choice has divided Biden’s advisers and comes two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

US officials said the authorization for Ukraine to use the long-range missile, known as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), was in response to Russia's surprise decision to bring North Korean troops into the conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not confirm the US authorization to use long-range missiles for attacks but hinted on November 17 that more important than lifting restrictions would be the number of missiles used to attack Russia.

According to Axios news site, the White House's decision to allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory with US long-range missiles only applies to the Kursk province, and is considered the US's response to the involvement of the North Korean army in the conflict.

“Blows cannot be delivered with words but with missiles,” Zelensky said in a speech on November 17.

President Biden began easing restrictions on the use of US-supplied weapons on Russian soil after Moscow launched a cross-border offensive in May toward Kharkiv.

To help Ukraine defend Kharkiv, Biden authorized the use of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which has a range of about 50 miles (80.5 km), against Russian forces across the border. But Biden did not authorize Ukraine to use the ATACMS, which has a longer range of about 300 km, to defend Kharkiv.

While US officials say they do not expect the authorization to fundamentally change the course of the conflict, one of the goals of the policy shift is to send a message to North Korea that its forces are vulnerable and that it should not send more troops.

Although the Ukrainian military is likely to use the ATACMS missile for the first time against Russian and North Korean forces threatening its forces in Kursk, Biden could allow Ukraine to use the long-range weapon elsewhere, according to US officials.

Some U.S. officials worry that Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles across the border could prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to retaliate with force against the United States and its coalition partners. But other officials say those concerns are overblown.

The Russian military is preparing to launch a major offensive with some 50,000 troops, including North Korean troops, on Ukrainian positions in Kursk with the aim of retaking all of the Russian territory that Ukraine seized in August.

Ukraine could use ATACMS missiles to strike Russian and North Korean troop concentrations, key military equipment, logistics facilities, ammunition depots and supply lines deep inside Russia. Doing so could help Ukraine reduce the effectiveness of an attack by Russia and North Korea.

Need to do it sooner

Whether to equip Ukraine with the long-range ATACMS system has been a particularly sensitive issue since the conflict erupted in February 2022. Some Pentagon officials have opposed providing the weapon to Ukraine because they believe the US military has limited supplies. Some White House officials have worried that Mr. Putin would widen the conflict if the US sent the missiles to Ukraine.

However, those advocating a tougher stance toward Moscow argue that a decision to allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory with long-range missiles could change the course of the conflict in Ukraine's favor.

"Ukraine's use of long-range missiles against our territory would mean the direct involvement of the United States and its satellite states in the war against Russia, as well as a fundamental change in the nature of the conflict. In this case, Russia's response will be appropriate and tangible," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned on November 18.

President Zelensky has long sought permission from the United States and its coalition partners to use long-range missiles against Russian territory. The British and French militaries have provided Ukraine with a limited number of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles, shorter than the U.S. system, and have voiced support for Mr. Zelensky’s request.

Still, Mr. Biden has historically been more risk-averse than his British and French counterparts. On November 17, some Republicans praised President Biden’s new move to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles but said it came too late.

“For months, I have urged President Biden to lift these restrictions,” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael R. Turner said in a statement. “President Biden should have listened to President Zelensky’s call sooner.”

An American ATACMS complex. (Photo: Reuters).

Message to North Korea

Biden was persuaded to make the change in part by the audacity of Russia’s decision to send North Korean troops into Ukrainian lines, US officials said, and also by concerns that a Russian offensive would be able to overwhelm Ukrainian troops in Kursk if they were not allowed to defend themselves with long-range weapons.

In addition, US officials also said that Mr. Biden has identified potential benefits - Ukraine will be able to achieve some valuable goals and the US can send a message to North Korea that it will pay a greater price than the risks of escalation.

Biden faced a similar dilemma a year ago when US intelligence agencies learned that North Korea was going to supply long-range ballistic missiles to Russia. At the time, Biden had agreed to supply several hundred ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.

The missile was to supplement the limited supply of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that Ukraine received from the UK and France.

Since then, Ukraine has used many of these missiles in a coordinated campaign of attacks against Russian military targets, so it is unclear how many missiles Ukraine has left in its arsenal for use in the Kursk region.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/cai-gat-dau-muon-man-cua-tong-thong-biden-voi-ukraine-thay-doi-cuc-dien-hay-them-dau-vao-lua-294185.html